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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #10,601
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:22am Apr 18, 2007 1:22am
  •  CWH
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: United We Buy, Divided We Sell | 249 Posts
Quoting laodeabdul
The rally start on march and end on September.. The rally quite similar to this rally also but who can tell
Why March? It's April now, could it be history repeating itself? Last time, the rally ended in September the same year so this time, it might fade in October before dipping to the bottom of the chart..
"If, at first, you don't succeed, try, try, try again" - Winston Churchill
  • #10,602
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:22am Apr 18, 2007 1:22am
Quoting wshhmm
People say the trend is your friend, of course my friends are unreliable and unpredictable.

good one.
It would be so much more funnier if it wasn't so true...

This inching price is going to put me to sleep. Since the last run up to test 30 mins ago the price hasn't retraced off the high by more than it's spread. It keeps pushing the high up one pip at a time.
  • #10,603
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:23am Apr 18, 2007 1:23am
Reprint from Money Week

'All the talk in the papers is of a $2 pound and what that means for us here in the UK - but what does it means for the US economy?
It’s not just about the apparent strength of the UK economy. The pound is also being driven higher by the carry trade - where investors borrow in a low-interest-rate currency (mainly Japanese yen) and invest in a higher-yielding currency, often New Zealand dollars, but also including sterling or dollars. If a rate hike goes ahead next month, the UK will have higher interest rates than the US for the first time in over two years. That will make it even more attractive to carry traders - and will also put more pressure on the dollar.
There are plenty of downsides to a high pound, of course - it can give an odd sense of nationalistic pride to some, and might be great if you plan to visit the States and haven’t bought your holiday money yet, but it’s not so good if you’re a shareholder being paid dividends in dollars.
But it’s also more bad news for Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke. The weaker the dollar becomes, the more inflationary pressure builds in the US economy as imports in particular become more expensive. This is at a time when an uncertain investment world is relying on the Fed to slash US interest rates if the American economy shows further signs of weakness as the problems in the housing market unfold further.
As global rates rise, as it seems they will, and the US yield becomes relatively less attractive, that inflationary pressure will continue to mount. It looks like the markets won’t be able to rely on a ‘Bernanke put’ to bail them out of trouble this time – and that means that the next US recession could hit harder and deeper than any we’ve seen in quite some time.'
  • #10,604
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:30am Apr 18, 2007 1:30am
Quoting goonergonebad
Reprint from Money Week

'All the talk in the papers is of a $2 pound and what that means for us here in the UK - but what does it means for the US economy?
It’s not just about the apparent strength of the UK economy. The pound is also being driven higher by the carry trade - where investors borrow in a low-interest-rate currency (mainly Japanese yen) and invest in a higher-yielding currency, often New Zealand dollars, but also including sterling or dollars. If a rate hike goes ahead next month, the UK will have higher interest rates than the US for the first time in over two years. That will make it even more attractive to carry traders - and will also put more pressure on the dollar.
There are plenty of downsides to a high pound, of course - it can give an odd sense of nationalistic pride to some, and might be great if you plan to visit the States and haven’t bought your holiday money yet, but it’s not so good if you’re a shareholder being paid dividends in dollars.
But it’s also more bad news for Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke. The weaker the dollar becomes, the more inflationary pressure builds in the US economy as imports in particular become more expensive. This is at a time when an uncertain investment world is relying on the Fed to slash US interest rates if the American economy shows further signs of weakness as the problems in the housing market unfold further.
As global rates rise, as it seems they will, and the US yield becomes relatively less attractive, that inflationary pressure will continue to mount. It looks like the markets won’t be able to rely on a ‘Bernanke put’ to bail them out of trouble this time – and that means that the next US recession could hit harder and deeper than any we’ve seen in quite some time.'
US economy might be in recession but not US market. Fed has a lot of $ to pump the market up.
  • #10,605
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:35am Apr 18, 2007 1:35am
Right to the edge and a +15 pip bounce in a few seconds. Mean there is a bunch of shorts sitting right above 2.0100?
  • #10,606
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:38am Apr 18, 2007 1:38am
Quoting Pipsta
Right to the edge and a +15 pip bounce in a few seconds. Mean there is a bunch of shorts sitting right above 2.010?
i saw it. a lot of shorts there.
  • #10,607
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:46am Apr 18, 2007 1:46am
i am short target 2.0000
  • #10,608
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:48am Apr 18, 2007 1:48am
Quoting wshhmm
i saw it. a lot of shorts there.
I envision in this sort of case as if there are a relative smaller amount of shorts sitting entrenched from before hand. So it's like the advancing army of longs need to wave by wave overwhelm them until their ranks break and fall and the longs go rushing over the hillside like a savage horde just like the movie Braveheart.....or maybe they will get rebuffed and ambushed by some shorts in the bushes....
  • #10,609
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:50am Apr 18, 2007 1:50am
Quoting jimo
i am short target 2.0000
Where'd you get in?
  • #10,610
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:52am Apr 18, 2007 1:52am
  •  CWH
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: United We Buy, Divided We Sell | 249 Posts
Quoting jimo
i am short target 2.0000
2.50 EST : Wow! Did you see that?! It dropped almost 20pips after briefly
touching the 2.0105 mark..
2.51 EST : It's on its way down again..

What's next????
"If, at first, you don't succeed, try, try, try again" - Winston Churchill
  • #10,611
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:53am Apr 18, 2007 1:53am
Hahahaha.. watch too many war movies. But that was a great analogy. But what makes me think a lot is that why there are always people who urges to go against the trend n fight the bulls army.
  • #10,612
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:53am Apr 18, 2007 1:53am
Quoting Pipsta
I envision in this sort of case as if there are a relative smaller amount of shorts sitting entrenched from before hand. So it's like the advancing army of longs need to wave by wave overwhelm them until their ranks break and fall and the longs go rushing over the hillside like a savage horde just like the movie Braveheart.....or maybe they will get rebuffed and ambushed by some shorts in the bushes....
Dont forget that there´s also a bunch of Samurai just waiting to cut off a few traders heads......and the Cossacks might mount an unexpected charge!!

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  • #10,613
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:53am Apr 18, 2007 1:53am
Quoting Pipsta
I envision in this sort of case as if there are a relative smaller amount of shorts sitting entrenched from before hand. So it's like the advancing army of longs need to wave by wave overwhelm them until their ranks break and fall and the longs go rushing over the hillside like a savage horde just like the movie Braveheart.....or maybe they will get rebuffed and ambushed by some shorts in the bushes....
hmmmmmmmm, it just stays there. I would not do anything before the Minutes.
  • #10,614
  • Apr 18, 2007 2:04am Apr 18, 2007 2:04am
Quoting dd33
Hahahaha.. watch too many war movies. But that was a great analogy. But what makes me think a lot is that why there are always people who urges to go against the trend n fight the bulls army.
In an relatively equal battle, the one with momentum has an advantage. Bulls right now have the momentum so the shorts would need to be overwhelmingly convincing to take that away.
  • #10,615
  • Apr 18, 2007 2:06am Apr 18, 2007 2:06am
  •  CWH
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: United We Buy, Divided We Sell | 249 Posts
Quoting dd33
Hahahaha.. watch too many war movies. But that was a great analogy. But what makes me think a lot is that why there are always people who urges to go against the trend n fight the bulls army.
Because they are not fighting against the bulls but rather their greeds & fears..
"If, at first, you don't succeed, try, try, try again" - Winston Churchill
  • #10,616
  • Apr 18, 2007 2:13am Apr 18, 2007 2:13am
Quoting Pipsta
In an relatively equal battle, the one with momentum has an advantage. Bulls right now have the momentum so the shorts would need to be overwhelmingly convincing to take that away.
So is this means that we need to take Sun Tzu's Art of War into our consideration also?
  • #10,617
  • Apr 18, 2007 2:16am Apr 18, 2007 2:16am
  •  CWH
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: United We Buy, Divided We Sell | 249 Posts
Quoting Pipsta
In an relatively equal battle, the one with momentum has an advantage. Bulls right now have the momentum so the shorts would need to be overwhelmingly convincing to take that away.
Precisely...
"If, at first, you don't succeed, try, try, try again" - Winston Churchill
  • #10,618
  • Apr 18, 2007 2:18am Apr 18, 2007 2:18am
Quoting CWH
Precisely...
EU above 1.36, hitting fresh 26 month highs. hmmm
  • #10,619
  • Apr 18, 2007 2:21am Apr 18, 2007 2:21am
  •  CWH
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: United We Buy, Divided We Sell | 249 Posts
Quoting wshhmm
EU above 1.36, hitting fresh 26 month highs. hmmm
What is that gonna do to our dear cable? Care to elaborate?
"If, at first, you don't succeed, try, try, try again" - Winston Churchill
  • #10,620
  • Apr 18, 2007 2:22am Apr 18, 2007 2:22am
it is time to go short the pig.
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