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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #10,561
  • Apr 17, 2007 8:01am Apr 17, 2007 8:01am
Quoting leelee75k
what a day
think I'm getting 136 on the euro too

now if only i can pick the right price to go short on, it will be even better.
I´m waiting to see the action around the 00 levels in euro and cable....for an initial small sell, but they´re both stalled at present
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #10,562
  • Apr 17, 2007 8:08am Apr 17, 2007 8:08am
out of all longs, not trying to be greedy and wait for a few more pips.

thinking short euro between 3605-15 and gbp 2010-2020 but waiting to see what happens at those levels first.
  • #10,563
  • Apr 17, 2007 8:09am Apr 17, 2007 8:09am
Timeframe is impossible to note. Comm craziness much likely would be seen in Gold/Platinum/Copper/Uranium/Coal/Silver etc. Again, it might be in 2007, or '08, or '09...'15, but most likely sooner than later.

Quoting Trumpcard
Hi theroller, with respect to point8, what commodity craziness are you referring to and when will it occur, which commodities?!
  • #10,564
  • Edited 9:49am Apr 17, 2007 8:15am | Edited 9:49am
Quoting leelee75k
what a day
think I'm getting 136 on the euro too

now if only i can pick the right price to go short on, it will be even better.
Please Leelee, pleeeaseeee dont do that.... What we saw today, as mentioned in the posts above are two trends overlapping

GBP bulls took it to 0020 and USD bears to 0070!!!!!!

USD index is now at last week's low. If breached, USD will be on the respirator by the end of the week!!!

Fighting this trend IS A FREAKING SUICIDE ATTEMPT, SHIT!!!!. I know a guy who burned 80% if his account shorting this damn pair all the way up, thinking he'd FOUND THE TOP

DO NOT TRADE AGAINSt THIS TREND UNTIL CLEAR - CLEAR - CONFIRMATION OF CORRECTION COMING INTO PLAY. And this is below 9900 now!!!!

Retail Sales coming on Thursday. It was the second news to boost cable from 9211 to 97s. We have to watch it closely now. Above expectation will open room to mid-0100 / low 0200 easily....

HUGE market movers going after stops since 97s here. Do not underestimate their GREED and POWER. Stay along with those guys!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #10,565
  • Apr 17, 2007 10:08am Apr 17, 2007 10:08am
well i am a bit scared, coz everyting seems so overbought and at hystorical tops, i am so much looking in to shorting
  • #10,566
  • Apr 17, 2007 10:10am Apr 17, 2007 10:10am
Quoting Islander
I´m waiting to see the action around the 00 levels in euro and cable....for an initial small sell, but they´re both stalled at present
When the 9:15 candles on euro and cable failed to make a new high (72 vs 74), I sold a 1/4 position for a scalp. Got out when it held at the 0035 area - also the 23.6% retrace of this mornings rally.

Holding at such a small retrace shows the underlying strength and whilst I would like to buy in the low 20000s (around the 38% retrace) that is not seeming likely at present - the second stab at the 35 area also failed.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #10,567
  • Apr 17, 2007 10:28am Apr 17, 2007 10:28am
Quoting ratman
well i am a bit scared, coz everyting seems so overbought and at hystorical tops, i am so much looking in to shorting
Just below my post saying to be careful...

I think that it is time to found "The Counter-Trend Trading Church" here..

Because it looks like some kind of religion-driven self-punishment to go shorting cable TP 10 pips all the way up from 9211 (863 pips move up).

Just doesn't make sense to me, sorry.
  • #10,568
  • Apr 17, 2007 10:51am Apr 17, 2007 10:51am
London is closing at the high of the day. Any thoughts, cesarnc??
  • #10,569
  • Apr 17, 2007 10:56am Apr 17, 2007 10:56am
Quoting okfx
London is closing at the high of the day. Any thoughts, cesarnc??
No... I'm curious about the downside now... I'll let Cable run to late NYC / Tokyo open to see if I can figure out something. But I am not planning to get back in until London tomorrow
  • #10,570
  • Apr 17, 2007 12:51pm Apr 17, 2007 12:51pm
Last time we were at this point in 1992 the pound plummeted in value. Wasn,t this due to the very famous day called Black Wednesday? I wonder if a Mr Soros has any plans for the cable?
  • #10,571
  • Apr 17, 2007 1:04pm Apr 17, 2007 1:04pm
Quoting cesarnc
Please Leelee, pleeeaseeee dont do that.... What we saw today, as mentioned in the posts above are two trends overlapping

GBP bulls took it to 0020 and USD bears to 0070!!!!!!

USD index is now at last week's low. If breached, USD will be on the respirator by the end of the week!!!

Fighting this trend IS A FREAKING SUICIDE ATTEMPT, SHIT!!!!. I know a guy who burned 80% if his account shorting this damn pair all the way up, thinking he'd FOUND THE TOP

DO NOT TRADE AGAINSt THIS TREND UNTIL CLEAR - CLEAR - CONFIRMATION OF CORRECTION COMING INTO PLAY. And this is below 9900 now!!!!

Retail Sales coming on Thursday. It was the second news to boost cable from 9211 to 97s. We have to watch it closely now. Above expectation will open room to mid-0100 / low 0200 easily....

HUGE market movers going after stops since 97s here. Do not underestimate their GREED and POWER. Stay along with those guys!!!!!!!!!!!!
Oh great bull of a sage - Cesar,

Do you think the BOE interest rate hike (now massively anticipated) is, in the main, already factored into the major players positions? Do you also maybe think that the primary thrust today was super rich speculators rather than institutions? If yes, do you think that at some time the major players and national governments will intervene to bail out their currencies VS the once mighty $? Are we on the cusp of a major seachange here - or - will it be business as normal in a few months time?

Personally, I am fascinated by recent events, but more importantly frustrated. Why?, because I like routine, and, until normal service is resumed determining daily trends (and being confident of eventual recovery from misplaced judgement) is impossible at this time. It eerily has the feel of there being no way back for the $. Perhaps the Euro (Deutschmark) is now the major player..........
  • #10,572
  • Apr 17, 2007 2:24pm Apr 17, 2007 2:24pm
Quoting goonergonebad
Oh great bull of a sage - Cesar,

Do you think the BOE interest rate hike (now massively anticipated) is, in the main, already factored into the major players positions? Do you also maybe think that the primary thrust today was super rich speculators rather than institutions? If yes, do you think that at some time the major players and national governments will intervene to bail out their currencies VS the once mighty $? Are we on the cusp of a major seachange here - or - will it be business as normal in a few months time?

Personally, I am fascinated by recent events, but more importantly frustrated. Why?, because I like routine, and, until normal service is resumed determining daily trends (and being confident of eventual recovery from misplaced judgement) is impossible at this time. It eerily has the feel of there being no way back for the $. Perhaps the Euro (Deutschmark) is now the major player..........
I was very surprised to see Cable above the 2.0 mark that easily. I mean, since my registration here in the forum I see this figure inspiring emotional discussions. And today, 2.0000 looked like another ordinary trading day in the market.

Was it speculators only, we would have seen an enormous whipsaw from 2.0020 to 9950

Blair came to the wires stating that Cable up "will help fighting inflation", so market didn't asked for another opinion or for the Queen's blessing.

Important is that USD-index is approaching its 2years low, while several */USD pairs are way above their multi-years highs.

The GBP bulls will stay around until BOE rate statement and Fri's Retail Sales may set the range. I just don't know yet when USD will at least recover from this gigantic bearish sentiment. If we have only seen the beginning of USD fall, than, as I wrote a few days ago, 2.0XXX is likely to become daily business for us.
  • #10,573
  • Apr 17, 2007 2:33pm Apr 17, 2007 2:33pm
[GBP/USD], last around the 2.0050 level, is unsurprisingly holding onto the bulk of today's almost 200 pips "3.1% Mar CPI" rally from session lows. Without a shadow of doubt, Cable should remain supported as UK interest rates are headed higher, and perhaps with a peak for longer. The short sterling futures strip at one stage priced in a end of year 3 mth LIBOR of 5.97% (ie at least 2 more 25 bp hikes). The currency, however, did run into some profit taking at 2.0070-75, where Asian names were the best sellers. However, players have some further instrumental data on Wednesday with the BoE MPC Mar mins the major release, and charts eyeing a huge test at 2.0105, which is considered by some techs as a more pivotal area (for the upside) than the 2 big fig, easily breached today.
  • #10,574
  • Apr 17, 2007 4:02pm Apr 17, 2007 4:02pm
Quoting cesarnc
I was very surprised to see Cable above the 2.0 mark that easily. I mean, since my registration here in the forum I see this figure inspiring emotional discussions. And today, 2.0000 looked like another ordinary trading day in the market.

Was it speculators only, we would have seen an enormous whipsaw from 2.0020 to 9950

Blair came to the wires stating that Cable up "will help fighting inflation", so market didn't asked for another opinion or for the Queen's blessing.

Important is that USD-index is approaching its 2years low, while several */USD pairs are way above their multi-years highs.

The GBP bulls will stay around until BOE rate statement and Fri's Retail Sales may set the range. I just don't know yet when USD will at least recover from this gigantic bearish sentiment. If we have only seen the beginning of USD fall, than, as I wrote a few days ago, 2.0XXX is likely to become daily business for us.
Thanks for your perceptive take Cesar.

Being a citizen of the UK and well versed in Bliar-isms, I am amazed that I still find it amazing that intelligent financial global decision makers are amazed by BLAIR'S amazing........... rhetoric.
The fact is that the UK economy is sick and becoming sicker by the day. The US economy on the other hand is not as bad as painted, and this fact is evidenced by recent fundamentals (not today), despite all the best efforts of GWB and UK banks sponsored sub prime carnage to prove otherwise.
So, why the recent seachange in Cable fortunes?
I can understand the Euro(DM)$ - but Cable?

Whatever the reasons, I just want a return to trending not uncertainty.
  • #10,575
  • Apr 17, 2007 4:19pm Apr 17, 2007 4:19pm
And Cable just put new high now 0082....

Whatta fuel...

Looks like carry trades can force GU and EU up since UJ is in awful shape with this strong USD bearish bias...

To note another remarkable session in NYC Stocks today...
  • #10,576
  • Apr 17, 2007 10:13pm Apr 17, 2007 10:13pm
  •  CWH
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: United We Buy, Divided We Sell | 249 Posts
Some commentators suggested cable could reach 2.0300 but did not say when. I can see 2.0090 is standing in the way right now. Anyone of the opinion it will return to the 1.96-1.97 range within few weeks?
"If, at first, you don't succeed, try, try, try again" - Winston Churchill
  • #10,577
  • Apr 17, 2007 10:26pm Apr 17, 2007 10:26pm
well, markets fall harder than they rise i read and if this gbp interest rate remain constant and the GBP starts to fall, man what a fall that would be.

but then again, the carry traders are still pushing things up. But i cant say carry traders brought it up today as JPY gained in value today. i think they just beating up the USD with the pound....maybe a shift in reserves or something.

what the heck do i know?
  • #10,578
  • Apr 17, 2007 11:12pm Apr 17, 2007 11:12pm
I think now party is near over and I am so cautious. watching is best choice for me.
  • #10,579
  • Apr 17, 2007 11:12pm Apr 17, 2007 11:12pm
  •  CWH
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: United We Buy, Divided We Sell | 249 Posts
Cable continues to romp higher this morning after clearing the 2.0 mark & hitting a high of 2.0076 overnight. It has extended the topside to 2.0086 but may face hurdles above in the form of strong sell orders @ 2.0095 & option barrier @ 2.0100. More offers reported @ 2.0150, according to dealers.
- Courtesy of Market News Int'l


From my own observation, it has difficulty breaching the 2.0091 mark now..
"If, at first, you don't succeed, try, try, try again" - Winston Churchill
  • #10,580
  • Apr 17, 2007 11:25pm Apr 17, 2007 11:25pm
Quoting CWH
Cable continues to romp higher this morning after clearing the 2.0 mark & hitting a high of 2.0076 overnight. It has extended the topside to 2.0086 but may face hurdles above in the form of strong sell orders @ 2.0095 & option barrier @ 2.0100. More offers reported @ 2.0150, according to dealers.
- Courtesy of Market News Int'l


From my own observation, it has difficulty breaching the 2.0091 mark now..
I am watching closely if it is top here.

It seems FF can't load charts because of virus???
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