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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #133,741
  • May 21, 2009 10:16am May 21, 2009 10:16am
Dont want to think i want give you advice or anything but for all traders taking 1 side and believe to hard in it like in short or long can damage the account .it is better to stay out a litle bit when hit sl and then reenter or just observe.we all going to win some loose some ,evetually the differences is if you manage to win more than loose.

Quoting BANDA
Friends lets do this way
When you long guys win I personally will be happy for you............But when we shorties loose don't label us some Sh.t it is not nice........... someone has to loose so other person to win ..........that the rule of trading..........So we lost ..............hey dollar suddenly lost against GBP NY Fed started buying treasuries ............they say they din't buy the intended amount so this can be short lived.............after all what do I know.........
  • #133,742
  • May 21, 2009 10:16am May 21, 2009 10:16am
Quoting Ifty
Thanks my friend. PATIENCE is such an easy word to forget. Thanks for reminding me.
Yeah no problem, i often miss that word too. lol.. stay sharp, dont let ur feelings conquer your analysis.. its a disaster...
  • #133,743
  • May 21, 2009 10:18am May 21, 2009 10:18am
Quoting ganymedes
Yes, and cable strength could also be seen as a measure of risk appetite. Makes me believe that the current pullback in the stock markets might become a good buying opportunity for a continued rally (with potential targets in the 9800 - 10800 area for Dow).
I was also thinking the same thing.. we could very well see the markets rallying in the months to come.

When this will end, I don't have a clue.. but i'm thinking sept or october. During the great depression in 1929, the markets rallied 60% for 6 months immediately after the initial fall. We all know what happened after that till 1932..
  • #133,744
  • May 21, 2009 10:18am May 21, 2009 10:18am
Quoting Ifty
Hi Guys,

I am hoping to go long because the dollar is basically destined for doom. The rising of GBP & EUR is not because of our currencies but due to the weakening of the dollar.

1 min, 5 min, 1 hr, 4 hr charts are all showing overbought. Should i wait until the indicators show underbought because knowing my luck as soon as i go long the whole thing will plummet.

I would appreciate your help.
To keep your risk relatively low, you could wait for a pullback. Then buy on a breakout of the descending trend line on a lower time frame (e.g. 15 min.)
  • #133,745
  • May 21, 2009 10:19am May 21, 2009 10:19am
on cable is better to set very carrefully your sl cause a quiq run that is againts the trend can wipe out your position,so on cable i prefer good management and big stoploss settin up on the sec support when i am long and on sec resistance when i am short .sometimes i work with 200 pips sl ,but not always.today i was working with 250 pips sl and manage to get 250 pips profit but it isnt always like today.
Quoting mloistianto
btw guys what is your tp and sl?
  • #133,746
  • May 21, 2009 10:20am May 21, 2009 10:20am
hi

cable need to be above 1.5878 to continue to 1.5941 which is important area it will run to 1.6006 if not resist will run to 1.6109
  • #133,747
  • May 21, 2009 10:24am May 21, 2009 10:24am
actually what happened before?why suddenly gu firing up then now its pulling back?
  • #133,748
  • May 21, 2009 10:28am May 21, 2009 10:28am
Quoting mloistianto
actually what happened before?why suddenly gu firing up then now its pulling back?
Nothing goes up continually my friend. It will have to trend and correct and pullback along the way... You can see from the 15min charts that it has had an impressive rally.. for it to pullback now should come as no surprise.

There really is no point in trying to figure out the reason for these small time-frame movements.
  • #133,749
  • May 21, 2009 10:34am May 21, 2009 10:34am
i see even with that kind of movement is normal right? thanks for the input.. well could u give me the big picture why usd become this weak? what actually happened? thanks before
  • #133,750
  • May 21, 2009 10:41am May 21, 2009 10:41am
Quoting mloistianto
i see even with that kind of movement is normal right? thanks for the input.. well could u give me the big picture why usd become this weak? what actually happened? thanks before
Yes, movements over the short term are quite insignificant when you consider the big moves.

When you ask for the big picture why usd become this weak, I am assuming you're referring to the sudden fall in the usd over the past 2 months. The usd was perceived to be a safe haven (wrongfully, in my opinion) and so as the stock market crashed from last year till March 09, the usd strengthened. When the stock market rallied from March lows, the usd fell because risk appetite grew. That's why we see the weakness in the usd in the past 2 months.

I am unable to explain movements in the short-term timeframe 15mins, 1 hr, if that's what you're asking.. sorry~
  • #133,751
  • May 21, 2009 10:45am May 21, 2009 10:45am
i see, btw i have a long opened in not a very good position @1,5860, do u think i should play safe(close it now) or let it run?
Anyone have a suggestion??
  • #133,752
  • May 21, 2009 10:47am May 21, 2009 10:47am
Quoting Ipips
I was also thinking the same thing.. we could very well see the markets rallying in the months to come.

When this will end, I don't have a clue.. but i'm thinking sept or october. During the great depression in 1929, the markets rallied 60% for 6 months immediately after the initial fall. We all know what happened after that till 1932..
Yes, indeed. I'm not convinced that we have seen the end of this, or that we have seen the real bottom in the stock markets yet.
  • #133,753
  • May 21, 2009 10:50am May 21, 2009 10:50am
Quoting mloistianto
i see, btw i have a long opened in not a very good position @1,5860, do u think i should play safe(close it now) or let it run?
Sorry, I'm unable to advise you on what you should do with your position. But since you have said yourself that it is not a very good position, shouldn't you close it?

When in doubt, get out!
  • #133,754
  • May 21, 2009 10:51am May 21, 2009 10:51am
Quoting mloistianto
i see, btw i have a long opened in not a very good position @1,5860, do u think i should play safe(close it now) or let it run?
I am also in a fix. Is anybody to give assistance
  • #133,755
  • May 21, 2009 10:53am May 21, 2009 10:53am
Quoting ganymedes
Yes, indeed. I'm not convinced that we have seen the end of this, or that we have seen the real bottom in the stock markets yet.
Amen to that. My sentiments exactly!

Having said that, I find it psychologically extremely difficult to go long the cable or the stock market after both have had such an impressive rally. Maybe I shall short them later in the year..
  • #133,756
  • May 21, 2009 10:54am May 21, 2009 10:54am
Loop closed?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_chart_0521.gif Size: 23 KB
"Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money" - Danny De Vito
  • #133,757
  • May 21, 2009 10:56am May 21, 2009 10:56am
cable travelled at such a great speed that it`s like 1.6 tomorrow and 1.7 next week...
  • #133,758
  • May 21, 2009 10:59am May 21, 2009 10:59am
well actually the trend is pretty much bullish right?and usd suffering from a crash. its not that i doubt my position but anyway i think its better to hold it for sometime. Thanks for ur suggestion anyway..
  • #133,759
  • May 21, 2009 11:07am May 21, 2009 11:07am
Maybe we should say goodbye to GU? Because she tends to take another flight, to heaven maybe? LOL..
  • #133,760
  • May 21, 2009 11:19am May 21, 2009 11:19am
Quoting mloistianto
Maybe we should say goodbye to GU? Because she tends to take another flight, to heaven maybe? LOL..
lol... goodbye to the bears, probably...
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