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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #133,401
  • May 20, 2009 2:18pm May 20, 2009 2:18pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
Implied Vols: 0.875%
Statistical Vols: 1.23% and rising
%Chng: 1.77%
GM - my vol indicator isnt working I was wondering if you could check a theory and see whether most of the big rises came when vol was low? Thanks for the help in advance - appreciate it
  • #133,402
  • May 20, 2009 2:23pm May 20, 2009 2:23pm
Quoting EricB
GM - my vol indicator isnt working I was wondering if you could check a theory and see whether most of the big rises came when vol was low? Thanks for the help in advance - appreciate it
Is there a good Volume indicator for MT4 for this kind of indication.
Plse post the indicator.

Thaks for the support
  • #133,403
  • May 20, 2009 2:31pm May 20, 2009 2:31pm
Morning guys, 1.5720 is nice resistance..... I'm looking for a retrace back 1.5600....
Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #133,404
  • May 20, 2009 2:32pm May 20, 2009 2:32pm
Quoting at2au
Is there a good Volume indicator for MT4 for this kind of indication.
Plse post the indicator.

Thaks for the support
volume won't help you much, because forex is not centralized, volume here is relative...i wouldn't rely on volume in forex at all
Twitter: @forexpokerpro
  • #133,405
  • May 20, 2009 2:55pm May 20, 2009 2:55pm
Quoting EricB
GM - my vol indicator isnt working I was wondering if you could check a theory and see whether most of the big rises came when vol was low? Thanks for the help in advance - appreciate it
Usually most structural breaches i.e. regime shifts occur when actual price changes exceed implied AND statistical vols.
I haven't done any recent formal investigation in this regard but it's definitely something I will do to update this extremely important aspect of price behavior as soon as I get the chance.

Thanks for the Input.

P.S.
I think there is also a post here on FF in which someone did really extensive vols study on a lot of pairs.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #133,406
  • May 20, 2009 2:56pm May 20, 2009 2:56pm
Quoting BBPI_fxtrader
volume won't help you much, because forex is not centralized, volume here is relative...i wouldn't rely on volume in forex at all
Yeah...the spread of the orders is the case here the volume is more for stocks..
Vo.lume in this case is the order quantity.
I Got it.
Thnx
  • #133,407
  • May 20, 2009 3:18pm May 20, 2009 3:18pm
[quote=GlobalMacro;2746759]Usually most structural breaches i.e. regime shifts occur when actual price changes exceed implied AND statistical vols.

Thanks GM - Guys I had some further thoughts to share let me know what you think - when I'm trading I look for trends by looking at daily's very rarely have I looked at weekly charts though I have ha dtrades run for a maximum of two weeks. But looking at the crazy moves this month made me look at the monthly and yearly charts. First thing I noticed was a spinning top on March - I was kicking myself as this probably was a good sign for a defencive - second thing I noticed were the correlations with dot com bubble establishment and collapse - I think the environment back then was a lot better then here but there are similarities (US leading the way in collapse and resurgence) - The GBP however seems to have gained strength on the basis of the beginings of Euro feb 2002 - I reckon not trusting the euro plus betting that before the pound could join it would appreciate many investors fromt he countries that were going to switch to euro established pound holdings - if you subtract that from the picture we are left with post dot com recovery which took the GBP up to 1.58/59 and 1.6 levels - note however it took about 4 months to get here rather than 4 weeks this time. Now BNY Mellon have been crying that GBP is a screaming buy plus manipulatin PA for rapid increase but the conditions are just not there to take it up to 1.9 plus levels we had seen where London temporarily has become the centre of the worlds finances and US was doomed. The US is ahead of UK by far in a road to recovery - if there is such a thing and UK has lost even further of its key industries like service/manufacturing sector to india and financing sector is full of crap and they are are cutting spending. SO conclusions, looking at the charts weve risen far too much too fast though we can still go up further to 1.6 and beyond levels, but expect GBP to weaken as UK recovery is going to be slower and longer plus political change is going to slow it down further. I would still like to see a lows of 1.46-1.475 as per dotcom volatility days.

P.S someone had asked about how there is a limit to an uptrend - i wasnt limiting the uptrend per say rather the channel of uptrend which was broken on my charts - broken pretty badly as my up channel was saying PA should be limited to 1.545 - GBP almost always overshoots but this move is crazy.
  • #133,408
  • May 20, 2009 3:50pm May 20, 2009 3:50pm
Quoting EricB
I would still like to see a lows of 1.46-1.475 as per dotcom volatility days.
From a Macro-Perspective (and that is 4-8 years!) personally I believe GBP/USD is leading indicator. As it was indicating a top @ 2.11 so it is indicating further falls down the road and by implication EUR/USD will visit parity and below - but like I said that is a reeeaaaally Macro time frame and irrelevant to my style of trading...
But yes definitely EUR/USD is not and will not be sustainable at these levels...they're lucky if it even holds in 4-8 years time...lol
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #133,409
  • May 20, 2009 4:08pm May 20, 2009 4:08pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
From a Macro-Perspective (and that is 4-8 years!) personally I believe GBP/USD is leading indicator. As it was indicating a top @ 2.11 so it is indicating further falls down the road and by implication EUR/USD will visit parity and below - but like I said that is a reeeaaaally Macro time frame and irrelevant to my style of trading...
But yes definitely EUR/USD is not and will not be sustainable at these levels...they're lucky if it even holds in 4-8 years time...lol
On a second thought that'd actually be a good long-term ZERO-LEVERAGE wealth-building, money market-alternative kind of a trade.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #133,410
  • May 20, 2009 5:29pm May 20, 2009 5:29pm
Soros just sold 10 Billion Pounds.
The top of my daily TL is 5800, and I figure buyers are lurking around 5200
  • #133,411
  • May 20, 2009 6:46pm May 20, 2009 6:46pm
Quoting Clouds
Soros just sold 10 Billion Pounds.
The top of my daily TL is 5800, and I figure buyers are lurking around 5200
is that soros quote historical of what he did or is that news of something he did recently?
  • #133,412
  • May 20, 2009 6:52pm May 20, 2009 6:52pm
Quoting 4xHero
is that soros quote historical of what he did or is that news of something he did recently?
No , not recently. I was just joking around. But historically he has.
  • #133,413
  • May 20, 2009 7:18pm May 20, 2009 7:18pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
From a Macro-Perspective (and that is 4-8 years!) personally I believe GBP/USD is leading indicator. As it was indicating a top @ 2.11 so it is indicating further falls down the road and by implication EUR/USD will visit parity and below - but like I said that is a reeeaaaally Macro time frame and irrelevant to my style of trading...
But yes definitely EUR/USD is not and will not be sustainable at these levels...they're lucky if it even holds in 4-8 years time...lol

Hi Eric

See you are on this thread now - can you elaborate a bit on the dotcom volatility please....a bit before my time...but curious to find out?
  • #133,414
  • May 20, 2009 9:49pm May 20, 2009 9:49pm
have u all heard about this. no wonder usd jump too fast.
  • #133,415
  • May 20, 2009 9:59pm May 20, 2009 9:59pm
Quoting kizofx
have u all heard about this. no wonder usd jump too fast.
"The euro-based share of reserve assets of Russia’s Central Bank increased to the level of 47.5 percent as of January 1, 2009 and exceeded the investments in dollar assets, which made up 41.5 percent"

That was a long time ago, although the news report came out recently. Makes sense, W. Russia is in Europe.
  • #133,416
  • May 20, 2009 10:01pm May 20, 2009 10:01pm
you are right so first all newbies should open a pre-market data from cnbc.as i am using them ,then look at the 4h chart and daily.if the trend just broke the 100 ma on daily chart then the trend is up .but be aware that if you are working on daily charts you should work with sl of over 200 pips and more and tp as well in order to have big risk-reward ratio.

for all beginners you should try to read "How can you beat the odds in forex market "by Igrouk and "Trades for beginners" ,these books are free to download over net.this 2 books should give you basics.

Quoting m0N5Ta
If you are kindly post your analysis that would be more interesting than posting some kind of signal. This post may insult you, but many people here are newbies and do not know what they are doing, posting signal turning them into bad habid and they will never learn themself how to be a trader. Your signal seem good predicted on next pricing. If you are trying to sell your system in the future (although now you are giving free signal) then you are at the wrong place, people here trying to learn how the market work and train themself to be traders....
  • #133,417
  • May 20, 2009 10:07pm May 20, 2009 10:07pm
buy now at 1.5760 and take 30 pips profit

Quoting jibleanu
you are right so first all newbies should open a pre-market data from cnbc.as i am using them ,then look at the 4h chart and daily.if the trend just broke the 100 ma on daily chart then the trend is up .but be aware that if you are working on daily charts you should work with sl of over 200 pips and more and tp as well in order to have big risk-reward ratio.

for all beginners you should try to read "How can you beat the odds in forex market "by Igrouk and "Trades for beginners" ,these books are free to download over net.this 2 books should...
  • #133,418
  • May 20, 2009 10:10pm May 20, 2009 10:10pm
buy now eur-usd 1.3770 and take 30 pips profit
Quoting jibleanu
buy now at 1.5760 and take 30 pips profit
  • #133,419
  • May 20, 2009 10:59pm May 20, 2009 10:59pm
Quoting jibleanu
buy now eur-usd 1.3770 and take 30 pips profit
Post ANALYSIS!

You told people to short 5705 G/U and what happened lol
  • #133,420
  • May 20, 2009 11:03pm May 20, 2009 11:03pm
if they shorted in the moment i told them they would have won some money but i am hoping nobody espect to folow the signal couple h after

Quoting jack.canadia
Post ANALYSIS!

You told people to short 5705 G/U and what happened lol
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