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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #10,481
  • Apr 16, 2007 7:17am Apr 16, 2007 7:17am
Sorry to hear about this trojan, everyone please be careful and protect your systems. Luckily I am using a Mac so I have nothing to worry about, but all the Windows users out there who can be infected by viruses, trojans, spyware, malware etc. please be careful!

I thought some weird stuff was going on last night... I guess this explains it...
  • #10,482
  • Apr 16, 2007 7:26am Apr 16, 2007 7:26am
staying away till this site fixes its problems,

but I'm still favoring both long euro and gbp for at least another 100 pips before perhaps changing to shorts..kind of a watch and see thing, I would take either side without firm sl's.
  • #10,483
  • Apr 16, 2007 8:08am Apr 16, 2007 8:08am
Quoting ~Shard~
Sorry to hear about this trojan, everyone please be careful and protect your systems. Luckily I am using a Mac so I have nothing to worry about, but all the Windows users out there who can be infected by viruses, trojans, spyware, malware etc. please be careful!

I thought some weird stuff was going on last night... I guess this explains it...

No viruses on the MacBook here - PLATFORM ONLY on windows side, no web surfin'...

COMON' 2.0000!!!

------------------------------------
  • #10,484
  • Apr 16, 2007 8:13am Apr 16, 2007 8:13am
Has the problem now been fixed? Im not getting any more trojan/virus alerts on my PC running XP PRO.

Cable is tough to call at the minute. Time to sell?
  • #10,485
  • Apr 16, 2007 8:13am Apr 16, 2007 8:13am
Looks like the trojan has been taken care of at the moment. My PC's available RAM was reduced to as low as 1+ MB only because of this stupid thing!
Tra-X
  • #10,486
  • Apr 16, 2007 8:24am Apr 16, 2007 8:24am
Quoting el_duende
Has the problem now been fixed? Im not getting any more trojan/virus alerts on my PC running XP PRO.

Cable is tough to call at the minute. Time to sell?
The 9am candle put in a lower high 9937 vs 9939 on my charts, BUT all of the short term trends are still up. I need to see if the opening of the main US Indices has any effect and say the 5 minute chart turning over, before even considering a small sell. IMO.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #10,487
  • Apr 16, 2007 8:25am Apr 16, 2007 8:25am
No 2.0 today guys. Maybe later this week
  • #10,488
  • Apr 16, 2007 1:02pm Apr 16, 2007 1:02pm
Closing my small sell now for a modest profit.

We may hit $2 tomorrow with some help from CPI data.
  • #10,489
  • Apr 16, 2007 8:18pm Apr 16, 2007 8:18pm
Quoting MarkGavalda
No 2.0 today guys. Maybe later this week
CPIs at London open are key. They were the news to provide the largest prop from 9211 to 97 previously. They are intrinstically linked to inflation.

Those 2 coming up better than expected will trigger a run towards 2.0 area. Thursday's Retail Sales (second to help the move up) can do the rest.

CPI and Retail Sales outcome can tatoo a rate hike in May on the market's brains.

Watch for BOE Minutes outcome on Wed is advised.
  • #10,490
  • Edited 11:37pm Apr 16, 2007 10:42pm | Edited 11:37pm
Oredi scan my computer.. Lucky didnt get affected. But my firefox ate up my RAM to 500+ MB too. Almost freeze my computer. Everything still looked bullish on the chart. Will look forward on the news.
So quiet in asian morning session. Almost like before a big storm comes.
  • #10,491
  • Apr 17, 2007 1:20am Apr 17, 2007 1:20am
If CPI data comes out at 2% or more for GBP then this alone could boost to $2 as a rate hike would be very likely next month.
  • #10,492
  • Apr 17, 2007 1:31am Apr 17, 2007 1:31am
as I understand all this 2$ is because most of traders/institutions belive rate hike in may. So if fundamentals do not back up cable it could mean the end of trend?
  • #10,493
  • Apr 17, 2007 1:45am Apr 17, 2007 1:45am
Quoting ratman
as I understand all this 2$ is because most of traders/institutions belive rate hike in may. So if fundamentals do not back up cable it could mean the end of trend?
IMHO May be yes and may be no. Coz last time when the US data show stronger than expected (forget which data Cable only fell to 1.96 before back on track bullish to 2.00 again. I think what can end the trend is continuous fundamentals showing that US economy is not heading into slower economic growth and their inflation rate fell below 2%.
Another options is that cable already surpassed 2.00. Coz we dont know what kind of "game" we gonna play in the "no man's land"


What do u guys think?
  • #10,494
  • Apr 17, 2007 1:48am Apr 17, 2007 1:48am
The run up to $2.0 was frustrated by the Trojan attack!
  • #10,495
  • Apr 17, 2007 2:03am Apr 17, 2007 2:03am
UK CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

Date (GMT)EventCons.PreviousApr 1708:30Consumer Price Index (MoM)0.3%0.4%Apr 1708:30Consumer Price Index (YoY)2.8%2.8%

After a blip in February, March CPI inflation should slow down again to 2.7%. The largest downward contribution should come from the housing component, following the announced reduction in electricity and gas tariffs. On the other hand, oil price increases in past months should be felt in transport costs and heating fuel.

IMHO - For forseeable future, all Fundamentals are key now. Tech analysis good only for intraday range scalping. Until the 2.0 break and it's extent is known technical trend analysis becomes even more guesswork.
  • #10,496
  • Apr 17, 2007 2:14am Apr 17, 2007 2:14am
Quoting BurgerKing
The run up to $2.0 was frustrated by the Trojan attack!
The price is at about $1.99 right now, which coincidentally is the price of a Trojan.....
  • #10,497
  • Apr 17, 2007 3:16am Apr 17, 2007 3:16am
if cable break 1.995 it will hit 2.0
  • #10,498
  • Apr 17, 2007 3:22am Apr 17, 2007 3:22am
Quoting deboooo2005
if cable break 1.995 it will hit 2.0
that's just logic coz of stops, i think it could be wery logical for big instances to hount those stops
  • #10,499
  • Apr 17, 2007 3:29am Apr 17, 2007 3:29am
(UK) PREVIEW: MARCH CPI AND RPI DUE AT 4:30 ET
- Consensus expectations:
- Mar CPI MoM: 0.3%e v 0.4% last
- Consensus estimates range from 0.0% to 0.4%
- Mar CPI YoY: 2.8%e v 2.8% last
- Consensus estimates range from 2.6% to 3.0%
- Mar Core CPI YoY: 1.8%e v 1.7% last
- Consensus estimates range from 1.4% too 1.9%
- Mar RPI MoM: 0.5%e v 0.7% last
- Consensus estimates range from 0.1% to 0.6%
- Mar RPI YoY: 4.6%e v 4.6% last (Feb RPI YoY was the highest since Dec 1991)
- Consensus estimates range from 4.2% to 4.7%
- Mar RPI Ex-Mortgage Interest Payments: 3.7%e v 3.7% last
- Consensus estimates range from 3.4% to 3.9%
- According to one analyst at HSBC, "Although the decline in retail gas prices starts to take effect in this March number, petrol prices have risen to offset this disinflationary impact,".
- Note that this is the first in a series of data that will be released this week that may influence the next Bank of England interest rate decision, which is scheduled for May 10. Currently, consensus expectations are for a 25 basis point hike to 5.50%, with only 5 of 32 surveyed economists forecasting that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%.
- Recall that in the minutes from the March 8 meeting, which were released on March 21, it was announced that the Bank of England voted 8 to 1 to hold rates at 5.25%, with the dissenting voter, Blanchflower, voting for a 25 basis point interest rate cut. Blanchflower said that upside risks from wage growth are diminishing, and that there is increased spare capacity in the labor market. Other MPC members noted that a weaker pound, and higher oil prices may stroke inflation. It appears that most members of the MPC saw upside inflation risks, and had a "wait and see" mindset, while at least one member disagreed with the general consensus.
- Also recall that on April 13 the British Chamber of Commerce said in its quarterly economic survey that they expect the Bank of England to cut rates if the economy worsens. The BCC did note that the economic upturn in the UK is still fragile
- Today's CPI and RPI data will be the first in a series of data this week that may play a major role in what the Bank of England does at the May 10 meeting. Note that the Bank of England minutes from the April 5 meeting will be released tomorrow along with jobs and earnings data, while retail sales data will be released on Friday.
- According to chartist, there is some room for downside in the in the front month long gilt future contract, however, the 105.70 level represents a relatively strong support level. On the upside, daily resistance is called at 107.03, and then again at 107.16. Long gilt futures closed at 106.90 yesterday, up 20 ticks from opening levels.
  • #10,500
  • Apr 17, 2007 3:33am Apr 17, 2007 3:33am
Super strong CPI

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