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  • #96,921
  • May 16, 2009 1:21pm May 16, 2009 1:21pm
its the weekends ! enjoy it
  • #96,922
  • May 16, 2009 1:27pm May 16, 2009 1:27pm
Quoting FXexpress
Its getting late so I will answer best I can in the time I got. If I do not answer like you want, I will be back in Sunday to help more.


1. It takes time to identify a trend. How do I know it is not too late to go with the trend? FALSE

I can identify a trend in less than a minute.

2. Trend reverse on retracements, many times upto 50% or more. When to get out?

Use Fib levels, trendlines and past S & R. Watch the posts of the people who are actually analizing and learn from them. Ignore people who are guessing.

[b]Example:...
Thanks MK,

While this discussion was going on and site was down, I got a chance to compare my method against what you suggested. The result is amazing. I think I would have been more profitable had I followed the trend, entering as you advised.

Now the question remains, how to know if there is a trend reversal? Since this is my greatest weakness and probably your greatest strength, based on your comment that you could spot a trend reversal very quickly. I will highly appreciate if you could also help me with it. My observation tells me that a range near a major s/r is an indication of possible trend reversal. If I correctly understood you, your advise is to get out at this point with profit.

Will appreciate your thoughts. Thanks.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #96,923
  • May 16, 2009 1:37pm May 16, 2009 1:37pm
Quoting FXexpress
2) Keep your stoploss behind the 100 SMA...... ALWAYS. If the stop is to large, stay out of the market until you get one that is. If you are finding the stop is to large more often than not..... Switch to a lesser account.

MK
I assume you mean on a swing basis, not intraday?

Regardless IMHO there are better methods to use than an average, lagging point in price.

Edit: Opps didn't see the various responses above until I posted. Anycase it is what it is.
  • #96,924
  • May 16, 2009 2:16pm May 16, 2009 2:16pm
I move my stoploss down or up as the SMA moves. If I get in profit I may move it if I smell a retracement. Let me show you Fridays trade and how I did it. I always trade small timeframes on Friday so I can be flat over the weekend. You can see the first entry below the 100 SMA. You can also see how the stop was moved down with the dashed lines always above the SMA. You can see the old bottom that was hit at 1.3531 and I pulled 1/2 off. Now, I was stopped out as the price just momentarily popped above the 100, however, I got another entry soon after and pulled another 1/2 off at the low made just before. I am flat now, but on a regular trade day I would still be in looking to add to my position. If you pull 1/2 off at a good profit level, you will not lose money.

As for the trend, I go to the Daily and see that the price has been below the 100, ( Daily Chart), even though the long term trend is up, ( Monthy Chart ). Since the Daily has been below the 100 I call it a Bearish trend as of right now. Even though the Daily is above the trend line, I want to see an aggressive move up and away from the black horizontal line on the Daily chart..

MK

Quoting SunTrader
I assume you mean on a swing basis, not intraday?

Regardless IMHO there are better methods to use than an average, lagging point in price.

Edit: Opps didn't see the various responses above until I posted. Anycase it is what it is.
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  • #96,925
  • May 16, 2009 2:18pm May 16, 2009 2:18pm
See my last post.

Quoting Chicky
Thanks MK,

While this discussion was going on and site was down, I got a chance to compare my method against what you suggested. The result is amazing. I think I would have been more profitable had I followed the trend, entering as you advised.

Now the question remains, how to know if there is a trend reversal? Since this is my greatest weakness and probably your greatest strength, based on your comment that you could spot a trend reversal very quickly. I will highly appreciate if you could also help me with it. My observation tells me that...
  • #96,926
  • May 16, 2009 2:27pm May 16, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting FXexpress
See my last post.
Thanks MK. I got it. Really appreciate your help.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #96,927
  • May 16, 2009 2:31pm May 16, 2009 2:31pm
Quoting FXexpress
Did you understand anything I have been saying. I said..... if the stop is to much for you , then you stay out and look for other possibilities. I have dealt with people like you before. Its people like you that get people hurt in here. Of course, sometimes you can not do this, but in general you can trade it very consistantly. Besides, I haven't seen a whole lot of successes in this thread lately and I have been watching for a few weeks.

You don't like it, don't trade it.

MK
I understood exactly what u were saying and it was B*ll**ks.

If your stop is set at 500 and it gets anywhere close you were wrong, close it, and move on.

Its prats like you who get people hurt.

And the reason you haven't seen many seccesses on this thread is because most ppl here are newbies like you who don't have a clue.
  • #96,928
  • May 16, 2009 2:43pm May 16, 2009 2:43pm
Anytime.

Quoting Chicky
Thanks MK. I got it. Really appreciate your help.
  • #96,929
  • May 16, 2009 2:44pm May 16, 2009 2:44pm
I see it works in many times .Thanks MK for sharing .at least it may add additional filter to trades takings.
Thanks ,
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #96,930
  • May 16, 2009 2:51pm May 16, 2009 2:51pm
Anything I can do to help you guys when I am in here it will be a pleasure. And yes, it's a filter to help keep you out of head fakes and that was what it was originally intended to do.

MK

Quoting fontu
I see it works in many times .Thanks MK for sharing .at least it may add additional filter to trades takings.
Thanks ,
fontu
  • #96,931
  • May 16, 2009 3:08pm May 16, 2009 3:08pm
I am not sure how Fxexpress' method would work for others, but it gives me even tighter sls than I currently use. I trade off daily and hourly timeframes. My back testing shows perfect results provided one uses change in 100SMA angle to close the positions. If it gets flat on daily, time to get out with profit. Again if it starts reversing on hourly, do the same.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #96,932
  • May 16, 2009 3:10pm May 16, 2009 3:10pm
Quoting FXexpress
Anything I can do to help you guys when I am in here it will be a pleasure. And yes, it's a filter to help keep you out of head fakes and that was what it was originally intended to do.

MK
I just had an epithany.

FXexpress, really all your saying is trade in the direction of the prevailing trend and set your stop-loss at the point at which the trend has change direction, right? Obviously, I'm ignoring PT.
  • #96,933
  • May 16, 2009 3:13pm May 16, 2009 3:13pm
Quoting Chicky
I am not sure how Fxexpress' method would work for others, but it gives me even tighter sls than I currently use. I trade off daily and hourly timeframes. My back testing shows perfect results provided one uses change in 100SMA angle to close the positions. If it gets flat on daily, time to get out with profit. Again if it starts reversing on hourly, do the same.
I'm glad that you have had some success backtesting. The concept is quite straight forward and I'll probably test a few ideas tomorrow based on this concept but it won't have anything to do with moving averages.
  • #96,934
  • May 16, 2009 3:16pm May 16, 2009 3:16pm
It just depends on what time frame you are using it on. Your stop will become larger, the bigger the timeframe. If you trade the 4 Hr and the Daily like I do in the interim, then you will need at least 100 pip stops or better.

MK

Quoting Chicky
I am not sure how Fxexpress' method would work for others, but it gives me even tighter sls than I currently use. I trade off daily and hourly timeframes. My back testing shows perfect results provided one uses change in 100SMA angle to close the positions. If it gets flat on daily, time to get out with profit. Again if it starts reversing on hourly, do the same.
  • #96,935
  • May 16, 2009 3:19pm May 16, 2009 3:19pm
Quoting notch
I'm glad that you have had some success backtesting. The concept is quite straight forward and I'll probably test a few ideas tomorrow based on this concept but it won't have anything to do with moving averages.
Notch, not every idea goes with every system. You may like to know that I enter in a series of trades, not just one or two positions near a s/r or fib. Plus my stoplosses vary from a few pips to 500 or even 700 in an effort to set my r/r. My tps are based on s/rs and average profit I look for is .05 to .1 percent for a complete move of 10 to 20 trades, etc. etc.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #96,936
  • May 16, 2009 3:23pm May 16, 2009 3:23pm
Quoting FXexpress
I move my stoploss down or up as the SMA moves............
Did I miss where you said you base your trades and not just stop losses off the 100SMA. Not a big deal though.

100 SMA on 15 min equals 25 hours.

Thursday's chart would have had a couple of head fakes, what then?
  • #96,937
  • May 16, 2009 3:24pm May 16, 2009 3:24pm
Quoting Chicky
Notch, not every idea goes with every system. You may like to know that I enter in a series of trades, not just one or two positions near a s/r or fib. Plus my stoplosses vary from a few pips to 500 or even 700 in an effort to set my r/r. My tps are based on s/rs and average profit I look for is .05 to .1 percent for a complete move of 10 to 20 trades, etc. etc.
Thanks. I'm not knocking the moving average but today discussion has generated quite a few ideas that I'd like to apply to my toolbox so I'm grateful for that.

The candlewick idea is so straight forward I'm surprised I haven't stumbled over it in the past. Hopefully another gem that I can synthesize and apply to the toolbox. Sometimes these types of discussions can lead to months of worthwhile research.
  • #96,938
  • May 16, 2009 3:30pm May 16, 2009 3:30pm
Quoting Chicky
Notch, not every idea goes with every system. You may like to know that I enter in a series of trades, not just one or two positions near a s/r or fib. Plus my stoplosses vary from a few pips to 500 or even 700 in an effort to set my r/r. My tps are based on s/rs and average profit I look for is .05 to .1 percent for a complete move of 10 to 20 trades, etc. etc.

.05 to .1 percent


Is that .5% to 1%?

Can you write a little more about your style of entries?
  • #96,939
  • May 16, 2009 3:34pm May 16, 2009 3:34pm
Quoting FXexpress
It just depends on what time frame you are using it on. Your stop will become larger, the bigger the timeframe. If you trade the 4 Hr and the Daily like I do in the interim, then you will need at least 100 pip stops or better.

MK
Hi MK,

I agree with your take on SLs. In my experience the stop loss placement is an art not a science. I actually got stopped out many times on tight SLs and then the PA reversed in the direction of my failed trade just above or below the SL. And thank you for posting your breakout tips and hints. I am inclined to test the breakout "thingy" on EuroGBP and EuroCHF, which are prone to this on a regular basis.

Thank you.
  • #96,940
  • May 16, 2009 3:37pm May 16, 2009 3:37pm
Quoting SunTrader
Did I miss where you said you base your trades and not just stop losses off the 100SMA. Not a big deal though.

100 SMA on 15 min equals 25 hours.

Thursday's chart would have had a couple of head fakes, what then?
Sun, it may be coincidence, but 100SMA gives me a stop loss just below 1.3000, I would have used if had a long poistion open at this moment. I trade off daily charts.
The Thief of Wall Street
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