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  • #96,881
  • Edited 9:22pm May 15, 2009 9:11pm | Edited 9:22pm
Quoting FXexpress
To get an idea about next week we have to check out the Weekly chart. Here we see a breech of this Major DTL, however, a 100 pip breech on the weekly is not near enough to say the bears are done. In this picture it looks as if the price is testing the back side of this trendline. There is one thing wrong with this as 2 hits do not a good trendline make. To me, this looks more like a Double top.

A look at the Daily shows price hitting an apex, a cross of a major UTL and a Major DTL. Yellow line shows where Mondays candle will be and if you use...
Very nice, I must say first real analysis I have seen in a long time, except for the works of a couple of old timers, whose names I would not mention. You all know who you are.
Maybe as an addition to your point of view I would like to add that we have seen three bearish waves on the hourly chart so far. Interesting thing is that the retracements started exactly off the .618 fib of the previous swing. A possible entry to the downside if you already had in mind the developing H&S and wanted to get in early, in hindsight of course, would be after the bearish engulfing bar formed at the very end of the first circled area. Stop loss right above it since it represents a trigger according to my view.

On second chart again the hourly retrace ended as a nice doji. Good place to hide SLs if you already are in some trade. This triggered our final selling wave which in my opinon has ended and is now forming a retracement, or ....how knows a complete reversal, which in my opinion is highly unlikely.
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Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #96,882
  • May 15, 2009 9:31pm May 15, 2009 9:31pm
Oh no doubt, There will definately be a retrace probably to the 1.3555 area or even to the 76 % level at 1.3580 or there abouts.

About analysis, yes, we need more substantial analysis and less guessing in here. There are a few that still make good analysis, but as a whole there is a lot of guessing going on. Its not rocket science, I was with Fidelity for 10 years and traded for them exclusively until one day I decided to stop being an idiot and start doing this for myself and here I am trading Forex. Can not believe how many people just fight the trends and lose daily. Its all in their heads.

Forget the news, forget Non farm, you don't even have to trade the news releases. Are you guys crazy, stay away from the releases.

There are only 2 things you need to know to trade Forex successfully:
1) STAY WITH THE TREND, STAY WITH THE TREND, STAY WITH THE TREND......... Have I said this enough?

2) Keep your stoploss behind the 100 SMA...... ALWAYS. If the stop is to large, stay out of the market until you get one that is. If you are finding the stop is to large more often than not..... Switch to a lesser account.

MK

Quoting djambazov84
Very nice, I must say first real analysis I have seen in a long tithere me, except for the works of a couple of old timers, whose names I would not mention. You all know who you are.
Maybe as an addition to your point of view I would like to add that we have seen three bearish waves on the hourly chart so far. Interesting thing is that the retracements started exactly off the .618 fib of the previous swing. A possible entry to the downside if you already had in mind the developing H&S and wanted to get in early, in hindsight of course, would be...
  • #96,883
  • May 15, 2009 9:42pm May 15, 2009 9:42pm
I just wanted to clarify something. When I say trend, I mean trend as of the specific Timeframe. A quick example: The 4 Hr chart shows PA above the 100 SMA so I consider trading this timeframe a long, or Bullish trend. However, I trade the 1 Hr and sometimes the 15 Minute from time to time and those trends would be short or Bearish. So I use the 100 SMA to determine my trend and as my stoploss barrier.

So you say, why the 100 SMA. I was with PT for awhile and that is how they set their software up. It always worked for me so I adopted it.

MK
  • #96,884
  • Edited 10:01pm May 15, 2009 9:54pm | Edited 10:01pm
Quoting FXexpress
...1) STAY WITH THE TREND, STAY WITH THE TREND, STAY WITH THE TREND......... Have I said this enough?
MK,

I appreciate. There must be some reason behind this belief. I have a series of questions, if you could help me with the answers:

1. It takes time to identify a trend. How do I know it is not too late to go with the trend?
2. Trend reverse on retracements, many times upto 50% or more. When to get out?
3. If I have to get out on a trend reversal, or on a major retrace, by the time I spot it, its already too late. How to do it?

Thanks
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #96,885
  • May 15, 2009 10:17pm May 15, 2009 10:17pm
Its getting late so I will answer best I can in the time I got. If I do not answer like you want, I will be back in Sunday to help more.


1. It takes time to identify a trend. How do I know it is not too late to go with the trend? FALSE

I can identify a trend in less than a minute.

2. Trend reverse on retracements, many times upto 50% or more. When to get out?

Use Fib levels, trendlines and past S & R. Watch the posts of the people who are actually analizing and learn from them. Ignore people who are guessing.

Example: Scale in, say price hits 38 % enter 1/4 original lot size. If price goes to 50 % add another 1/4, 61.8 add another 1/4. Keep it small. If price goes from first entry, so what, your still a winner, right?

3. If I have to get out on a trend reversal, or on a major retrace, by the time I spot it, its already too late. How to do it?

Depends, is it a trend reversal, or is it just retracing. I don't really understand what your asking here. You should be getting out with profit. Look for signs, candle formations, consecutive wick sizes etc. I will be using a system indicator that will eliminate 90% of all headfakes. Watch for it.

Be carefull what you read, there is a lot of good stuff in here, but there is some confusing stuff also. You just have to weed it out.

MK




Quoting Chicky
MK,

I appreciate. There must be some reason behind this believe. I have a series of questions, if you could help me with the answers:

1. It takes time to identify a trend. How do I know it is not too late to go with the trend?
2. Trend reverse on retracements, many times upto 50% or more. When to get out?
3. If I have to get out on a trend reversal, or on a major retrace, by the time I spot it, its already too late. How to do it?

Thanks
  • #96,886
  • May 15, 2009 11:04pm May 15, 2009 11:04pm
Quoting FXexpress
Its getting late so I will answer best I can in the time I got. If I do not answer like you want, I will be back in Sunday to help more.


1. It takes time to identify a trend. How do I know it is not too late to go with the trend? FALSE

I can identify a trend in less than a minute.

2. Trend reverse on retracements, many times upto 50% or more. When to get out?

Use Fib levels, trendlines and past S & R. Watch the posts of the people who are actually analizing and learn from them. Ignore people who are guessing.

[b]Example:...


Just a little trivias b4 going technical, is this your first visit to FF or you are an ex ?

Hope I m not being rude in asking.....
  • #96,887
  • May 16, 2009 12:50am May 16, 2009 12:50am
Okay, amazing how times just slip past...narrrrgh.. its just me getting older and losing touch with those modern reality. Still cant seem to wean myself off those 'old school moldy valueless values' . Pathetic fogey ?? hehehe..... the flamboyant flaunting of literary engineering skill aka b.s. (sound quite slmllar to financial engineering skill aka scam ? no)

Anyway, back to our usual business of tracking this slimy PA and just trying to cover its trail can drive you to the wall sometimes. Fortunately my time limited experience and my trusty dynamic chart still get me out of trouble and put me in on scheduled route mostly.

Going forward into next week and as I have mentioned on my previous post that bulls top are already in place @13722 which is further authenticated by the effortless breaching of 13480 means that we are looking at a bearish downward channel to the 13300/13204 areas to test the bears to see if they are indeed dead or still alive. A breach of 13205 level will give the bears another shot at wrestling the control out of the bulls with a bearish window@ 12900/ then 12500 again..

On Monday based on the last prevailing price dynamics, PA should retrace/retest 13530/13590 lvl with stiff resistant @ 13605 OR PA would continue its southward journey to 13430 after touching 13509 briefly. Whatever may be the case, I will my indicators show me all the right signposts and all I have to do is just simply follow those signposts......

I am flat on all m/t positions currently and will be looking for next m/t trade on Monday based on the current technical bearish bias. (A breach of 13695 will derail my intended m/t bearish plan/trade set up but I think it is a low probability becos bullish reconnection point is at a distance 13740 lvl).

As I have also decided to be more active in intraday trades, I hope I still have the touch to make some positive s/t scalp trades looking for 40-120pips profit as and when the openings presents itself. I will post my trade here as and when I can. My weakness is cyber literacy and thats why my dispensations is still stuck where it is not supposed to be. Hope to get it out of my way as soon as I know how.

Thats all for this coming week for all those like minded traders out there and
GL and happy pippings for alls and do take care and be happy....

PS.. Excuse me if my take is wrong.
  • #96,888
  • May 16, 2009 1:43am May 16, 2009 1:43am
Quoting 99vt66
I hope I still have the touch...

Thats all for this coming week for all those like minded traders out there... do take care and be happy.
To the first... me too.

To the second... you too.

FUBAR...
  • #96,889
  • May 16, 2009 2:30am May 16, 2009 2:30am
Quoting ak4x
To the first... me too.
Quoting ak4x

To the second... you too.


Ak,

I like you and JW to look and evaluate into my scalp trade setups. Can you tell me whats the best way to do it ?

Thx Bro,
  • #96,890
  • May 16, 2009 2:58am May 16, 2009 2:58am
Quoting 99vt66
[b]
Ak, I like you and JW to look and evaluate into my scalp trade setups. Can you tell me whats the best way to do it ?

Thx Bro,
Jay is traveling for a week or two but I'd be happy to take a peek for whatever it may be worth... click on your User name (upper left corner)>Settings and Options (left hand column)>Edit Options.

Halfway down are the PM and email options. Enable either or both, or just PM me your contact info.

I'm reminded of the old saw that even a broken clock is right twice a day, so there's at least a two in something chance I might have a worthwhile thought... or know someone who does.
FUBAR...
  • #96,891
  • Edited 3:27am May 16, 2009 3:15am | Edited 3:27am
Halfway down are the PM and email options. Enable either or both, or just PM me your contact info.

I'm reminded of the old saw that even a broken clock is right twice a day, so there's at least a two in something chance I might have a worthwhile thought... or know someone who does. [/quote]


Well , I think I just PM my email. Did you rcd it ? Huh? Old Saw?

Just only you and JW for now...
  • #96,892
  • May 16, 2009 3:28am May 16, 2009 3:28am
Hi all!

I am reading through the thread, and I see many terms that I don't understand since I am a novice.

What is B/E, TP...etc?

Thanks in advance.
  • #96,893
  • May 16, 2009 3:30am May 16, 2009 3:30am
if the resistance at the top of the daily really holds, looks like a good short
  • #96,894
  • May 16, 2009 4:45am May 16, 2009 4:45am
Quoting oookie
Hi all!

I am reading through the thread, and I see many terms that I don't understand since I am a novice.

What is B/E, TP...etc?

Thanks in advance.

BE break even
TP - take profit
SL - stop loss
PA - price action
TL - trend line

Off top of my head but there are lots more.
  • #96,895
  • May 16, 2009 5:06am May 16, 2009 5:06am
Quoting arthurb
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

A very interesting chart imho.
  • #96,896
  • May 16, 2009 5:56am May 16, 2009 5:56am
EUR-USD 4 Hour Chart update AFTER Friday Close.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd1.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #96,897
  • May 16, 2009 7:06am May 16, 2009 7:06am
Quoting candlesticks
EUR-USD 4 Hour Chart update AFTER Friday Close.
Rainy here in blighty!

I guess it's a no brainer to either sell the break break of the lower treadline or wait for a retrace and sell if the upper TL acts as resistence but I'll just keep trading my own method.
  • #96,898
  • May 16, 2009 8:08am May 16, 2009 8:08am
No to the Ex question, but I have traded stocks in much the same way, however, at Fidelity I didnt get to keep all the money........

I was blindsided by an email about Forex and I traded a demo for a couple of weeks until I told myself....this is crazy, I am going live and it can't be to much differant then I was used to. I was a little wary so I started a Micro account with $500 in it and since I was trading in Tenths I could trade the upper time frames like I was used to and keep my stop where it needed to be. And if I lost it it would not be too awful bad. I have been trading a micro account for a month now and my account is almost $3000. When I hit 5 I will go mini. I trade for percentage and each week it grows like cat sh-t. Anyway, thats my story, made a lot of money thru Fidelity Investments and now I am going to turn it into millions.

My advice, if your stop is under 100 pips, your beating a dead horse and your going to give your money to me eventually...LOL, your gonna lose eventually, so trade an account that will let you do that safely. I will be glad to help when I can, however, my son has recently been diagnosed with Cancer so I will be here when I can.

MK


Quoting 99vt66
Just a little trivias b4 going technical, is this your first visit to FF or you are an ex ?

Hope I m not being rude in asking.....
  • #96,899
  • May 16, 2009 8:16am May 16, 2009 8:16am
Quoting FXexpress
No to the Ex question, but I have traded stocks in much the same way, however, at Fidelity I didnt get to keep all the money........

I was blindsided by an email about Forex and I traded a demo for a couple of weeks until I told myself....this is crazy, I am going live and it can't be to much differant then I was used to. I was a little wary so I started a Micro account with $500 in it and since I was trading in Tenths I could trade the upper time frames like I was used to and keep my stop where it needed to be. And if I lost it it would not...
i started a micro account with 100 $ in october 2008 , at the moment i have 9000 $ in my account , and have withdrawed 5 000 $ in the end of Februar. The Secret is to operate with biggest amount u can afford. It took me 3 months to get to 1000 $ and 2 months to make these 1000 to a 10 000 , and only this friday i made 4 000 dollars.At the moment whenever i feel great my actual summary profit/loses is about +2000 $ so i can't really call my self a good trader but a good student , the time will show
CrizZzZzZzZz
  • #96,900
  • May 16, 2009 8:28am May 16, 2009 8:28am
Quoting IcoHristovBG
i started a micro account with 100 $ in october 2008 , at the moment i have 9000 $ in my account , and have withdrawed 5 000 $ in the end of Februar. The Secret is to operate with biggest amount u can afford. It took me 3 months to get to 1000 $ and 2 months to make these 1000 to a 10 000 , and only this friday i made 4 000 dollars.At the moment whenever i feel great my actual summary profit/loses is about +2000 $ so i can't really call my self a good trader but a good student , the time will show
Very nice to read your performance , simply it is excellent. You have earned consistently for so many months with very small starting capital. Do you like to share your strategy or what & how inspired you doing so nicely?
Hope you will continue forever.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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