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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #132,601
  • May 16, 2009 3:56am May 16, 2009 3:56am
LOOK
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  • #132,602
  • May 16, 2009 10:09am May 16, 2009 10:09am
I believe USD will regain strength again. And I also see the DOW coming back down to re-test lows before deciding what to do.
  • #132,603
  • May 16, 2009 10:19am May 16, 2009 10:19am
Also, read this book. Youll be glad you did.

It's a perfect example of how the news means absolutely nothing, and the sentiment of traders is what matters.

Sentiment in the Forex Market Indicators and Strategies To Profit from Crowd Behavior and Market Extremes

You can download it from www.4shared.com
  • #132,604
  • May 16, 2009 10:22am May 16, 2009 10:22am
Quoting jack.canadia
I believe USD will regain strength again. And I also see the DOW coming back down to re-test lows before deciding what to do.
are you expecting this to happen anytime soon? Do you think that the cable will first test the year's high before collapsing?
  • #132,605
  • May 16, 2009 10:47am May 16, 2009 10:47am
I have been a Full Time Forex Trader now for 4 Years and I would just like to post my thoughts...as it seems like you have a very good community here..
Rav
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly Cable Chart.GIF Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly.gif Size: 24 KB
I know who the real stop hunter is....
  • #132,606
  • May 16, 2009 12:02pm May 16, 2009 12:02pm
Quoting Rav700n
I have been a Full Time Forex Trader now for 4 Years and I would just like to post my thoughts...as it seems like you have a very good community here..
Rav
Rav - your comments and graphs are extremely useful and I hope you will continue to post your thoughts - my opinion had been similar to yours but has changed slightly the last few weeks. The last recession recoveries were based upon 1)Technological Reveolution or 2)Increased availability of leverage - the impact of either of these two was similar to each other and hence the phases might have matched as well - however this time - neither is there and hence I would see a dip rather than a rise to phase II as dipicted by your diagram followed by a protracted long growth at very slow levels we only see phase II at the end of this year or begining of next.
  • #132,607
  • May 16, 2009 12:14pm May 16, 2009 12:14pm
The Main reason of posting my monthly charts is so that in your mind you can decide about bearishness and bullishness...I have been through a couple of the pages not all but I can see a lot traders have been making calls without any analysis and it seems they are trying to catch every single pip on Cable...

Just swing trade cable and you will have no issues at all..
It is very easy to make 500 pips a month on cable with out any issues at all.

Next week should be a good week.
I personally see that the dollar will strengthen from monday...

As per my charts I am bearish on Cable but Would like to get an entry near the top ie 1.5350 ish......I cant see that happening at all for the next three trading days..but will wait and see where it takes us...

My swing Trade would be to start short covering in the 1.5250 region and build positions up 350 if it gets there...I do see cable going to about 1.5000 next week.

Good Luck All
Happy Trading
RAV
I know who the real stop hunter is....
  • #132,608
  • May 16, 2009 12:22pm May 16, 2009 12:22pm
I would just like to say something about these figures..I am not a big fan of technical indicators......and have not needed them in 4 years of trading or to make trade decisions the only reason I use them is guide me after I have place my trades....

From a techincal point or a fundamental point...I cannot see cable getting to these figures next week...it is impossible

We have a mountain to climb might be the right word to use if you want to achieve those figures within next week....

Use the Swing Simpleton method..Short cable near the maximum high and build not more than 5 position at a distance of 25 each...
Let them run into 40 pips and lockem in....and let the rest of you cable lots run....

Good Luck
Rav
I know who the real stop hunter is....
  • #132,609
  • May 16, 2009 10:51pm May 16, 2009 10:51pm
Will you be looking to buy at 1.5000?

Or only planning to take short positions at 1.5350?
  • #132,610
  • May 17, 2009 1:36am May 17, 2009 1:36am
If you are a swing trader...then yes I would definitely short in the 1.5350 Region.....Look at the channel top to short..and your stop would be above 520 as a minimum.....Things to look out for while shorting:
Take a position based on a 4 hourly candle...Also look at the volume
so the theory would be as follows:

When to go short
1.When you are at the top of a 4 hour channel
2.When you see the the volume is decreasing considerably( Buyers are drying up
3. See the Formation of Previous Daily and weekly candle and ensure they are
supporting you in the 1.5350 zone.

This trade should yield you a minimum of 200 pips without any doubt...

What is the Current Daily Trend of cable

1. Buy in EuropeanLondon
2. Sell in New York
3.Neutral in Asia

So try and get your positions right accordingly because this can be very profitable...

Now with buying be careful....
1.5000 is no doubt a good place to buy....but remember... there is a gap till
1.4650 where it can fall...

So here is my tip

1st time it hits 1.5000 go long for 50 to 75 pips---Take Profit
2nd time it hits 1.5000 there is a good chance it will drop straight to 1.4950
This would be a better long entry for you as I said in the monthy chart,

I am not expecting it to break out of range yet..

Good Luck

Happy Trading

Rav
I know who the real stop hunter is....
  • #132,611
  • May 17, 2009 1:50am May 17, 2009 1:50am
Since July Last year how many consolidation days have you seen....Currency Trading is all about Pattern recognition and not blind calling to decide your bias...so what do you see different on the daliy candles that you have not seen in a long time.....
---6 Daily candles that are met with resistance not seen this formation till July 2008, the maximum you can see on the top of channels is 2 or three ...this means it is time to consolidate or go lower...imho...

Personally I hope we stay in this region so we can swing and hedge trades for the next couple of weeks...

Good Luck All

Rav
I know who the real stop hunter is....
  • #132,612
  • May 17, 2009 3:10am May 17, 2009 3:10am
wave analysis
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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{Promotion Removed}
  • #132,613
  • May 17, 2009 5:56am May 17, 2009 5:56am
hi, i have a newbie question, does elliots wave dependable or reliable to be applied in GU? thanks
  • #132,614
  • May 17, 2009 6:01am May 17, 2009 6:01am
Quoting mloistianto
hi, i have a newbie question, does elliots wave dependable or reliable to be applied in GU? thanks
I think elliot wave could be applied on every pair, its depend on how you looks at your chart. In my opinion elliot wave works best in longer time frame (i.e higher than 4 hour bar)
  • #132,615
  • May 17, 2009 6:55am May 17, 2009 6:55am
Quoting Rav700n
If you are a swing trader...then yes I would definitely short in the 1.5350 Region.....Look at the channel top to short..and your stop would be above 520 as a minimum.....Things to look out for while shorting:
Take a position based on a 4 hourly candle...Also look at the volume
so the theory would be as follows:

Happy Trading

Rav
Looks like this pair is in no mans land, almost in the middle of the channel. Can go either up or down. Suspect in the longer term the bias is up with the strong possibility of a weaker dollar index, however given the news changes every few hours who know anymore. Still a strong possibility of a break to 1.4800 and lower unless of course dollar tanks.
  • #132,616
  • May 17, 2009 7:51am May 17, 2009 7:51am
another newbie question, which is the best indicator combination for GU pair? how about gartley pattern? is it for longer timeframe too? which is the best timeframe for macd and rsi indicator? I hope u dont mind if im asking too many question in this forum..thanks and really appreciate it.
  • #132,617
  • May 17, 2009 8:00am May 17, 2009 8:00am
combination for GU pair is eur/usd, or gpy/jpy. hope this can help u
  • #132,618
  • May 17, 2009 12:03pm May 17, 2009 12:03pm
Quoting mloistianto
another newbie question, which is the best indicator combination for GU pair? how about gartley pattern? is it for longer timeframe too? which is the best timeframe for macd and rsi indicator? I hope u dont mind if im asking too many question in this forum..thanks and really appreciate it.
Everyones system/trading styles will be different. That being said, you need to find what works for you. I dont use gartleys, I leave that to Inzider! hah

The simplest of all trading systems is learning how candles are made and also being able to tell when a currency pair might be reversing, and also the idea of buying at support and selling at resistance.

Anytime I add something new to my strategy, I end up closing all my charts and starting from scratch. Too many signals are bad. Keep it simple and dont use too many indicators.
  • #132,619
  • May 17, 2009 12:22pm May 17, 2009 12:22pm
been doing some research this weekend - seems like many pundits are bearish on the dollar at the moment - what are the implicationns for cable? do we have to rely, therefore, on inherent GBP weakness to push this down - after a week of quite tight range trading are we going to see a breakout of some sort, or more of the same?? thoughs, analysis anyone please?
  • #132,620
  • May 17, 2009 1:00pm May 17, 2009 1:00pm
Quoting dimlat
been doing some research this weekend - seems like many pundits are bearish on the dollar at the moment - what are the implicationns for cable? do we have to rely, therefore, on inherent GBP weakness to push this down - after a week of quite tight range trading are we going to see a breakout of some sort, or more of the same?? thoughs, analysis anyone please?
If everyone is bearish, you should get bullish. I've been doing reading too, and if the pundits, or everyone, are bearish, this indicates an extreme in sentiment and warns of a possible reversal. They are bearish now after the dollar has been falling for how long?
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