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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #132,061
  • May 13, 2009 6:49am May 13, 2009 6:49am
m on long at 1.5146..nice gartley pattern ter
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Click to Enlarge Name: gu nuy.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #132,062
  • May 13, 2009 6:50am May 13, 2009 6:50am
hey IMHO cable will not visit 1.53 area until she visit 1.51 even 1.49.50 area to tell hi to her previous levels.........

Quoting 4cfx
Cable well supported at 1.5150 by trendline and fib retracement.

Take into consideration US April Retail Sales release in an hour, which is likely to dampen USD, cable may move up again.

But Mervin King's speech was pretty damning, especially on the UK economic outlook. So it will be a case of stock market rally vs BOE report. Who will win?

Personaly, I think cable has unfinished upside business.....

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BANDA333
  • #132,063
  • May 13, 2009 6:51am May 13, 2009 6:51am
Quoting 4cfx
Cable well supported at 1.5150 by trendline and fib retracement.

Take into consideration US April Retail Sales release in an hour, which is likely to dampen USD, cable may move up again.

But Mervin King's speech was pretty damning, especially on the UK economic outlook. So it will be a case of stock market rally vs BOE report. Who will win?

Personaly, I think cable has unfinished upside business.....
Unfinished upside?... How far to the upside?
  • #132,064
  • May 13, 2009 7:02am May 13, 2009 7:02am
Again, good news to the $ will be bullish for the stocks and hence buoy the cross...
  • #132,065
  • May 13, 2009 7:13am May 13, 2009 7:13am
Quoting zapper
Unfinished upside?... How far to the upside?
Based on my trendline and fib retracement, I think 1.54 is likely target on the next move up while 1.56/1.57 is probable before the move back down.

Just my views, which will change if and when price patterns negate my count.
  • #132,066
  • May 13, 2009 7:27am May 13, 2009 7:27am
Quoting zapper
Again, good news to the $ will be bullish for the stocks and hence buoy the cross...

trying to work out the relationship between us stocks and the gbpusd. Im looking at (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wall-S...867.html?.v=11) which is saying us open might be flat. What is the relationship? Bullish US stocks = down for GBPUSD or other way around?. I know this is extremely simplified but just treing to work out a basic relationship.

anyone help?
  • #132,067
  • May 13, 2009 7:27am May 13, 2009 7:27am
can see 1.52s in the vicinity...
  • #132,068
  • May 13, 2009 7:34am May 13, 2009 7:34am
Now we have a good chance of heading towards 1.50. First target 1.5085, then 1.5060.

Good luck all.
  • #132,069
  • May 13, 2009 7:35am May 13, 2009 7:35am
Quoting Ipips
That's very brave. I see it going to 1.54 today.
Target 2 achieved (1.5120).

  • #132,070
  • May 13, 2009 7:43am May 13, 2009 7:43am
Quoting pockets99
trying to work out the relationship between us stocks and the gbpusd. Im looking at (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wall-S...867.html?.v=11) which is saying us open might be flat. What is the relationship? Bullish US stocks = down for GBPUSD or other way around?. I know this is extremely simplified but just treing to work out a basic relationship.

anyone help?
At the moment, bullish stock = up for cable only because the greenback is still considered as safe haven. Investors sell out of their USD into higher risk assets.
  • #132,071
  • May 13, 2009 7:52am May 13, 2009 7:52am
Quoting 4cfx
At the moment, bullish stock = up for cable only because the greenback is still considered as safe haven. Investors sell out of their USD into higher risk assets.

thats the other main thing im trying to understand, risk & safe havens etc., and its relationship. As i understand it so far USD is seen as safe haven so when things are looking bad for US ecconomy then investors stick with USD to stay risk averse; this then ends with downward pressure on cable because of the deamd for us dollars.... i think.

am i any where near understanding this?
  • #132,072
  • May 13, 2009 7:58am May 13, 2009 7:58am
Quoting pockets99
thats the other main thing im trying to understand, risk & safe havens etc., and its relationship. As i understand it so far USD is seen as safe haven so when things are looking bad for US ecconomy then investors stick with USD to stay risk averse; this then ends with downward pressure on cable because of the deamd for us dollars.... i think.

am i any where near understanding this?
Yes you are correct. USD is still the main reserve currency. But in normal times, economic fundamentals will take precedence. However, judging from Mervin King's speech this morning, that may be a little while to come yet.
  • #132,073
  • May 13, 2009 8:00am May 13, 2009 8:00am
nice day, guys
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  • #132,074
  • May 13, 2009 8:03am May 13, 2009 8:03am
Quoting 4cfx
Yes you are correct. USD is still the main reserve currency. But in normal times, economic fundamentals will take precedence. However, judging from Mervin King's speech this morning, that may be a little while to come yet.

so just in your opinion what is the main thing affecting things at the moment? i know this is a v difficult question, but what do you look at to get a feel for where we are?
  • #132,075
  • May 13, 2009 8:05am May 13, 2009 8:05am
IMHO this rapid depreciation not much to do with USD .......GBP made very fast moves upward in light of bad numbers from u.k (# unemployment rate was bad# inflation somewhat low/deflation scenario, U.K bond sales for QE didn't do well as anticipated so I plan to go long only when GBP hit.....1.49 until then only shorts for me...........yes shorts are risky


Quoting 4cfx
Yes you are correct. USD is still the main reserve currency. But in normal times, economic fundamentals will take precedence. However, judging from Mervin King's speech this morning, that may be a little while to come yet.
BANDA333
  • #132,076
  • May 13, 2009 8:07am May 13, 2009 8:07am
Today your wave count worked nicely buddy...........man you look like George Michal
Quoting derek
nice day, guys
BANDA333
  • #132,077
  • May 13, 2009 8:12am May 13, 2009 8:12am
Quoting pockets99
so just in your opinion what is the main thing affecting things at the moment? i know this is a v difficult question, but what do you look at to get a feel for where we are?
Key driving force at the moment is investors risk apetite. It was pretty bullish for the last week, focusing only on goods news, and ignoring bad news. Today is a bit of a wakeup call.

Of couse, you need to combine this with technicals. For example, right now it's holding strong at the 38.2% fib.
  • #132,078
  • May 13, 2009 8:42am May 13, 2009 8:42am
How far down do you think GBP/USD will reach before going back up?
  • #132,079
  • May 13, 2009 8:56am May 13, 2009 8:56am
I am not very good with flags and pennants, but their seems to be some sort of formation building on GU, clearly visible in 15m and h1.

Is it bullish pennant?
bull in a china shop
  • #132,080
  • May 13, 2009 9:03am May 13, 2009 9:03am
Quoting plasmapants
I am not very good with flags and pennants, but their seems to be some sort of formation building on GU, clearly visible in 15m and h1.

Is it bullish pennant?
It's a bearish pennant, signalling a downward trend? It looks probable especially if it breaks 1.5070. This will change my wavecount to a completed wave 5.
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