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DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009

  • #81
  • Apr 20, 2009 2:40am Apr 20, 2009 2:40am
I thought I would post this just in case price does a u-turn and comes back...

If you were watching the charts this morning you would have seen price break straight through 1.46 without much fuss. I therefore decided not to place a buy.

In the event that it does come back around at least I will be able to read this and think - oh yeah, I had a good reason to stay out!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-04-20_1036.png Size: 24 KB
  • #82
  • Apr 20, 2009 2:48am Apr 20, 2009 2:48am
Whilst I'm here I will just note that I have moved my stop to +100 on my E/U short from last Thursday as she continues to drop!
  • #83
  • Apr 22, 2009 5:55am Apr 22, 2009 5:55am
EUR/USD - Stop still at +100 (1.3050)

GBP/USD - Sold @ 1.4600
  • #84
  • Apr 27, 2009 11:08am Apr 27, 2009 11:08am
Stopped out at 1.2200 (for 115 pips).

Chart shows (obvious) reason for entry!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UC_Daily_2009-04-23_1840.png Size: 31 KB
  • #85
  • Apr 27, 2009 11:13am Apr 27, 2009 11:13am
Current position on EUR/USD is short @ 1.3225 (as per attached chart)

GBP/USD sell @ 1.4600 (from 22nd April) was closed out at 1.4500 (for 100 pips, also on 22nd April).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_2009-04-27_1858.png Size: 35 KB
  • #86
  • May 9, 2009 9:35am May 9, 2009 9:35am
April has been an interesting month for me. I fell into the trap of trying to enhance my "trading skills".

So far this year I have had some success in trading. But I am still waiting for everything to come crashing down on me! The 95% failure figure we are told of seems to be haunting me – suggesting that sooner or later this will all go wrong.

Maybe it will!

As a result I started doubting my ability to stay successful and started looking at how I could increase my chances of staying on top. So I have spent a lot of time looking at support and resistance and price action etc… which is of course a good thing – but I noticed that I was complicating things again. Trying to make trading too complex!

Essentially what I have been doing here is grabbing some pips from the current trend. I think that as long as I approach this with some common sense, I should be able to stay on top without tinkering around with enhanced methods and skills!! One thing I will add though, is that by taking account of the long term trend I have reduced the number of loosing trades that I would have taken, which helps!

So my aim for May is to stay focused on keeping it simple!! The results for April are below and it has been another good month, so I must be doing something right!

EUR/USD

Total Pips Won: 500
Total Pips Lost: 100

Profit: 400

GBP/USD

Total Pips Won: 500
Total Pips Lost: 0

Profit: 500

TOTAL

Total Pips Won: 1000
Total Pips Lost: 100

Profit: 900
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU_April_2009.png Size: 33 KB
Attached Image
  • #87
  • May 11, 2009 10:17am May 11, 2009 10:17am
Trade Update

My E/U long position from 6th May is still open; stop loss currently at 1.3500 (+200).

My G/U long position from 7th May got stopped out today at 1.5100 for 100 pips. I now have another long position open from 1.5100, as this is where I would have entered the market today if I didn't already have a position open.
  • #88
  • May 12, 2009 3:01am May 12, 2009 3:01am
Hi all,
is it possible to write a summary for the entry/exit rule for this system? i cannot find it from all the post threads here?
Happy trading
  • #89
  • Edited 6:16am May 12, 2009 5:41am | Edited 6:16am
Quoting footy
Hi all,
is it possible to write a summary for the entry/exit rule for this system? i cannot find it from all the post threads here?
Happy trading
Hi footy,

I didn't really summarise my entry rules for this system as it is just a journal to keep track of what I am doing. I have had a few people PM me and ask what I am doing so I guess I should make it a bit clearer.

I will try and put something together and update the thread very soon.

Regards,

Dan
  • #90
  • May 12, 2009 10:03am May 12, 2009 10:03am
Trade Update

GBP/USD Long Closed @ 1.5200 (+100)

EUR/USD Long Closed @ 1.3600 (+300)
  • #91
  • May 12, 2009 11:46am May 12, 2009 11:46am
For the very small number of people who are interested in my entry/exit criteria etc I have now updated the first post with a bit more info and a couple of charts to help explain what I am up to!!
  • #92
  • May 13, 2009 8:38am May 13, 2009 8:38am
GBP/USD Long @ 1.5150

Reasons: rejection of 1.5100, upward trendline and 50% fib area
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP_USD_Long_1_5150_2009-05-13_1541.png Size: 31 KB
  • #93
  • May 14, 2009 12:08pm May 14, 2009 12:08pm
Yesterday's G/U trade is currently up 100 so I have moved stop to breakeven.

New trade today is long E/U @ 1.3600.

Seem to be in limbo-land at the moment, so I shall sit back and wait for the market to show me the way!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_Long_at_1-3600.png Size: 22 KB
  • #94
  • May 14, 2009 12:51pm May 14, 2009 12:51pm
Hello, we spoke through PM before. Thanks for really breaking down your strategy. I'm going to begin demo trading this method on Sunday whent he market opens up. I will stick with E/U and G/U as my currency pairs also. You are really doing great. Keep up the good work. Look forward to being a part of your thread again now that I understand exactly what you do and how you trade.

Quoting DanUK
Yesterday's G/U trade is currently up 100 so I have moved stop to breakeven.

New trade today is long E/U @ 1.3600.

Seem to be in limbo-land at the moment, so I shall sit back and wait for the market to show me the way!
  • #95
  • May 14, 2009 1:20pm May 14, 2009 1:20pm
Hi Siuol,

You're very welcome to join in my friend. Any questions please ask... but in the meantime feel free to post here with me!

Regards,

Dan
  • #96
  • May 14, 2009 2:15pm May 14, 2009 2:15pm
Thanks. I noticed that earlier on in your thread you made mention of the 21 and 25sma I believe. After reading your rules again, I see that is not mentioned. Do you just trade indicator free now as you have explained by doing top down analysis and then waiting for the u-turn or do you still use the moving averages? I did not see them in your charts on your first post but I figured I would ask to be on the safe side.

Quoting DanUK
Hi Siuol,

You're very welcome to join in my friend. Any questions please ask... but in the meantime feel free to post here with me!

Regards,

Dan
  • #97
  • May 14, 2009 2:40pm May 14, 2009 2:40pm
Quoting Siuol
Thanks. I noticed that earlier on in your thread you made mention of the 21 and 25sma I believe. After reading your rules again, I see that is not mentioned. Do you just trade indicator free now as you have explained by doing top down analysis and then waiting for the u-turn or do you still use the moving averages? I did not see them in your charts on your first post but I figured I would ask to be on the safe side.
Hi Siuol,

When I first started trend-trading I found I wasn't confident trading completely "naked" as it were. So when I came across a strategy known as the "77 Cross" - which involved three moving averages placed on a daily chart - I started to use them and they helped me to see what I was looking for.

I have attached a chart with examples of how I used the moving averages. The 25 sma gave overall trend direction (i.e. safest way to trade) and the "77" cross (two types of 7 period MAs) gave me likely areas to watch for a reversal. Note the chart is a one hour chart with daily period moving averages.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 77_cross.png Size: 47 KB
  • #98
  • May 14, 2009 2:44pm May 14, 2009 2:44pm
Continued...

The problem with this is that at times when the trend becomes "choppy" the moving averages sit in the middle (which is a signal in itself). And you can see by the attached chart that using a trendline is sufficient to guide you in the right direction.

The key being higher highs/lows in an uptrend and lower highs/lows in a downtrend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 77_cross_part_2.png Size: 31 KB
  • #99
  • May 14, 2009 2:48pm May 14, 2009 2:48pm
Some traders are strictly anti-indicators because they "lag" and some traders will trade only with the use of indicators.

Personally I am happy to use an indicator so long as we understand that an indicator is simply a tool to help make a decision.

I would also mention that trendlines lag and so do price action setups (and so does horizontal support and resistance to some extent - in that they do not show up until they have been used a few times in the past).
  • #100
  • May 14, 2009 2:52pm May 14, 2009 2:52pm
Okay, that makes sense. I can understand how you felt uncomfortable trading completely "naked". I'm going to start off without using the 77 cross or any other indicators. For me, that has been my problem. I pay more attention to them rather than what price is telling and then make stupid mistakes. I'm gonna start off on the right foot and stay that way...and that's "naked". Thanks for clearing that up for me. Glad to see that you have become comfortable enough to get rid of the moving averages and trade with no more indicators and just price action.

[quote=DanUK;2735450]Continued...
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