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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #10,401
  • Apr 13, 2007 1:30pm Apr 13, 2007 1:30pm
Quoting Pipbyta
What the hell was that!!!!!!!!!!!!!
what are you talking about
  • #10,402
  • Apr 13, 2007 1:59pm Apr 13, 2007 1:59pm
Wowie...the TL that was the breakpoint on the drop down this morning just got busted on the upside. Price within 15pips of the high. Looks like this pair is setting up for a break of that high very soon into next weeks open. I wish I had longed back down by 9800 as I had an idea to do but was unsure if this bearish turn was a signal the overall bull trend was toast. Doesn't look toast right about now.
  • #10,403
  • Apr 13, 2007 2:03pm Apr 13, 2007 2:03pm
Dont dare to go short at this time.. (even though praying hard that it will go bearish) coz everything still looks bullish on my 4hr chart. Still got my long at .9815 TP on .9900. Looking forward for another attempt to test the TL.
  • #10,404
  • Apr 13, 2007 2:16pm Apr 13, 2007 2:16pm
theres still plenty of space to go. next resistants 1.9870/75
Second 1.9905/15 . just have to see where it will find support.
  • #10,405
  • Apr 13, 2007 2:29pm Apr 13, 2007 2:29pm
Quoting dd33
Dont dare to go short at this time.. (even though praying hard that it will go bearish) coz everything still looks bullish on my 4hr chart. Still got my long at .9815 TP on .9900. Looking forward for another attempt to test the TL.
It's looking still bullish so far. The 1hr chart looks quickly developing. The retracement off last week's move was to about 62% fib level. That last finished 4hr candle looks bullish, too.
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  • #10,406
  • Edited 4:21pm Apr 13, 2007 3:49pm | Edited 4:21pm
Quoting Pipsta
It's looking still bullish so far. The 1hr chart looks quickly developing. The retracement off last week's move was to about 62% fib level. That last finished 4hr candle looks bullish, too.
Besides the techis, GBP 2.0000 and EUR 1.3600 are the ultimate targets ahead of next BOE's and ECB's interest rate hikes.

The fib retracement I'm running for baselines is low 9211 / high 9887 (actual). Only breach of 23% (9725) denies this scenario in the s/t (weeks). Breach of 38% (9629) denies it in the m/t (months).

I don't see fundamentals to prevent this trend to stop now, maybe to postpone it, but not to quit and reverse. What we're seeing is the overlapping of two powerful trends restarted after the Chinese crisis

- GBP and EUR bullish by strong economic fundamentals (CPIs, retail sales ->inflation in the edge, -> Interest Rate hike)

- USD bearish on continuous mixed economical indicators, war, and China economic boost, making the market dump dollars heavily in a downtrend initiated in Jan 2006 and resuming the trend in Jan 2007.

These two fundamentals together (and help me on those I can't recall now), confirmed BOE and ECB hikes, will set a new platform for those majors/USD, while other currencies are already at multi-year highs against the dollar (NZD, AUD) or on their way to this level (CAD, CHF).

Don't let technicalities mislead you from this picture. Stop thinking about trend reversal, while it doesn't come, for that will distract you for what is really going on.

If this trend reverses, there will be 800-1,200 pips to catch, so let it run the first 200 before start worring about it. For now, TRADE THIS TREND we are in. Much, easier, much more profitable and way less risky than short for tiny pips on 15 min chart exhaustion. Think big, damn it.

My view is that Cable 2.0XXX is about to become daily business for us, rather than a crazy dream.
  • #10,407
  • Apr 13, 2007 3:57pm Apr 13, 2007 3:57pm
Last but not least.

We don't need to KNOW what is going to happen. We just need to set the levels at which the scenarios we have in mind are denied.

While prevailing, trade on autopilot.

Once denied, build new ones.

Nice weekend you all... I know I need rest.
  • #10,408
  • Apr 13, 2007 4:13pm Apr 13, 2007 4:13pm
USD-index - bull bodycount

Scored new low after December 2006.
Attached Image
  • #10,409
  • Apr 13, 2007 4:13pm Apr 13, 2007 4:13pm
Quoting cesarnc
We don't need to KNOW what is going to happen. We just need to set the levels at which the scenarios we have in mind are denied.
nicely put! , Innicent till proven quilty .)

but let the BOE show us the way!

take it easy and good weekend to all.
Mother
  • #10,410
  • Apr 15, 2007 8:42pm Apr 15, 2007 8:42pm
[GBP/USD] rose from an earlier low of 1.9782 to a 2 1/2 month of 1.9888 as a mixed bag of US data put pressure on the USD.

The tame producer price index also weigh on the USD which has now put the pair on course for the 2.000 handle.

Data release in the UK saw IDS median pay settlements remaining unchanged at 3.5% in the three months to Mar. With the market obsessed with carry trade activities, the GBP/USD could challenged its 14 year high of 1.9916 over coming sessions. Buying orders at 1.9840 by a Swiss name will provide support while selling orders at 1.9915 by tech types will cap the upside this session
  • #10,411
  • Apr 15, 2007 8:54pm Apr 15, 2007 8:54pm
What is your opinion cesarnc, GBP/USD will going up or down?


Quoting cesarnc
[GBP/USD] rose from an earlier low of 1.9782 to a 2 1/2 month of 1.9888 as a mixed bag of US data put pressure on the USD.

The tame producer price index also weigh on the USD which has now put the pair on course for the 2.000 handle.

Data release in the UK saw IDS median pay settlements remaining unchanged at 3.5% in the three months to Mar. With the market obsessed with carry trade activities, the GBP/USD could challenged its 14 year high of 1.9916 over coming sessions. Buying orders at 1.9840 by a Swiss name will provide support while selling orders at 1.9915 by tech types will cap the upside this session
  • #10,412
  • Apr 15, 2007 9:12pm Apr 15, 2007 9:12pm
Morning everyone.. back to trade charts again.. looks like asian session still dunno what to do with the G7 results. My long got stopped becoz of the cable's sudden drop to 1.9780 before went back on track again. Is it becoz of the G7?
  • #10,413
  • Apr 15, 2007 9:48pm Apr 15, 2007 9:48pm
Quoting dd33
Morning everyone.. back to trade charts again.. looks like asian session still dunno what to do with the G7 results. My long got stopped becoz of the cable's sudden drop to 1.9780 before went back on track again. Is it becoz of the G7?
It is absolutely the G7. They just don't stop talking.

[G7 SOURCE] Wires report the Communique will not have any change in language o...
[G7 SOURCE] Wires report the Communique will not have any change in language on currencies. The Jpy has borne broad losses immediately, although we doubt whether such a statement should surprise too many in the broader market. Usd/Jpy should attract decent size offering interest into 119.50/60

GBP/USD drops 80 pips
  • #10,414
  • Apr 15, 2007 10:24pm Apr 15, 2007 10:24pm
Quoting victorusmc
It is absolutely the G7. They just don't stop talking.

[G7 SOURCE] Wires report the Communique will not have any change in language o...
[G7 SOURCE] Wires report the Communique will not have any change in language on currencies. The Jpy has borne broad losses immediately, although we doubt whether such a statement should surprise too many in the broader market. Usd/Jpy should attract decent size offering interest into 119.50/60

GBP/USD drops 80 pips
when dud this happen i.e when did gu drop 80 pips
  • #10,415
  • Apr 15, 2007 10:29pm Apr 15, 2007 10:29pm
I was replying to DD13's post about getting stopped out at 1.9780, which was only touched on Friday 13, going from 1.986 to 1.978, about 80 pips.
  • #10,416
  • Apr 15, 2007 11:30pm Apr 15, 2007 11:30pm
Is anyone short at 1.99? Could we see 2.0 this week or would it take a few weeks to get there? How fast could this uptrend potentially be?
  • #10,417
  • Apr 15, 2007 11:43pm Apr 15, 2007 11:43pm
  •  CWH
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: United We Buy, Divided We Sell | 249 Posts
No. I will still long btw 1.9901/06 b'cos I believe cable has the potential to push higher up, 1.9951 the least.

But I don't think it could reach 2.0000 now. It needs more momentum to reach that point.

What do you think?
"If, at first, you don't succeed, try, try, try again" - Winston Churchill
  • #10,418
  • Apr 15, 2007 11:59pm Apr 15, 2007 11:59pm
Have we reached 1.99?? Cmiiw, but i thought the highest so far is still 1.9893.
The chart have started to move sideways on 1hr chart. I think we will have another swing before testing the 1.99 again? What do u guys think?
  • #10,419
  • Apr 16, 2007 12:22am Apr 16, 2007 12:22am
I am shorting cable at 1.9875... First target 1.9830
  • #10,420
  • Apr 16, 2007 12:23am Apr 16, 2007 12:23am
Quoting ashlee_17
I am shorting cable at 1.9875... First target 1.9830
Dont think good idea for going short
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