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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #131,661
  • May 9, 2009 6:12am May 9, 2009 6:12am
Quoting jgnorton
Thanks for sharing. This stuff seems like rocket science compared to my prefered set-up: KISS.
but......

thats not always really true!!!!
  • #131,662
  • May 9, 2009 6:56am May 9, 2009 6:56am
Quoting roli
i wouldn't put my money on this site. and not sure about this source

all other recognized sites (bloomberg, reuters, fxstreet, alpari, oanda.....) are showing the right numbers

there isn't any indictor/reference around to support for this kind of landslide

unlikely,
check the post above, oanda shows 1.34474 for EUR/USD and 1.5084 for the cable.http://www.oanda.com/convert/classic
  • #131,663
  • May 9, 2009 6:58am May 9, 2009 6:58am
It is very common for the GBPUSD to open on Monday's 200pips down. Usually, it is 50 to 100 pips but I have seen it over the past 18 mths opening 200 pips down.

I always take a Sell on Friday night, just before closing with a 100pip TP on the entry price and I have not and a failed trade.

If it doesn't hit my target I always close it manually at BE.
  • #131,664
  • May 9, 2009 7:01am May 9, 2009 7:01am
Quoting thirtypips
It is very common for the GBPUSD to open on Monday's 200pips down. Usually, it is 50 to 100 pips but I have seen it over the past 18 mths opening 200 pips down.

I always take a Sell on Friday night, just before closing with a 100pip TP on the entry price and I have not and a failed trade.

If it doesn't hit my target I always close it manually at BE.
good call.I am kicking myself for not selling the EURO after such a massive move up. A big opportunity list i reckon.
  • #131,665
  • May 9, 2009 7:06am May 9, 2009 7:06am
Quoting sid7121
good call.I am kicking myself for not selling the EURO after such a massive move up. A big opportunity list i reckon.
I always take a sell 15 min before closing. My current Sell on Friday is at 1.5235 with a TP at 1.5135 so lets see how it goes on Monday.

I have also noticed that on Mondays, there is usually a 300 pip movement on the GBP so I am expecting it to test 1.4950 again.
  • #131,666
  • May 9, 2009 9:25am May 9, 2009 9:25am
Quoting thirtypips
I always take a sell 15 min before closing. My current Sell on Friday is at 1.5235 with a TP at 1.5135 so lets see how it goes on Monday.

I have also noticed that on Mondays, there is usually a 300 pip movement on the GBP so I am expecting it to test 1.4950 again.
I think that must be temporary adjustment... I am not so sure that price is how it will open. The tokyo fix is yet to occur, and order rebalancing will take place. Although, I have one short open from 1.5190, so it would be good news, for me, but you can't have wishful thinking in this game. (scratching head)---I don't know
  • #131,667
  • May 9, 2009 9:33am May 9, 2009 9:33am
Quoting smartalicus
I think that must be temporary adjustment... I am not so sure that price is how it will open. The tokyo fix is yet to occur, and order rebalancing will take place. Although, I have one short open from 1.5190, so it would be good news, for me, but you can't have wishful thinking in this game. (scratching head)---I don't know
i am still long, so i really hope this is a minor adjustment.If i look at my charts, i see 100-200 pip gap is not uncommon here, as someone else said.So i wouldnt be surprised if that happens.
  • #131,668
  • May 9, 2009 9:35am May 9, 2009 9:35am
Just my opinion Friday late appreciation of GBP ,EU and depreciation CHF maybe some kind of manipulation. As indicated SNB (Swiss central bank) will launch some kind of intervention to stop CHF appreciation without a reason. Expect GBP to depreciate during EU session as rational traders will take the appropriate moves. GBP has apprreciated last to time within a short period to fall below 1.50 fast.NFP was a bad number it was traded like a rossy senario.
BANDA333
  • #131,669
  • May 9, 2009 1:43pm May 9, 2009 1:43pm
Quoting sid7121
i am still long, so i really hope this is a minor adjustment.If i look at my charts, i see 100-200 pip gap is not uncommon here, as someone else said.So i wouldnt be surprised if that happens.
Gap down, pullback, and shortttt
  • #131,670
  • May 9, 2009 2:08pm May 9, 2009 2:08pm
Quoting jack.canadia
Gap down, pullback, and shortttt
Don't get me happy over nothing! < is that really an indication of how it will open? A stray quote on xe.com or oanda? Just seems too good to be true in light of other data sources & action Friday. There is a sentiment indicator on learning markets dot com that seems to show short interest bias for eu & gu, but perhaps I'm reading it wrong? Bah.... I hate suspense
  • #131,671
  • May 9, 2009 4:09pm May 9, 2009 4:09pm
Quoting smartalicus
Don't get me happy over nothing! < is that really an indication of how it will open? A stray quote on xe.com or oanda? Just seems too good to be true in light of other data sources & action Friday. There is a sentiment indicator on learning markets dot com that seems to show short interest bias for eu & gu, but perhaps I'm reading it wrong? Bah.... I hate suspense
Well, if you think about it, for those of us wanting to go short, a gap up would be incredible .. seeing as someone bought after a larggge rise in price.

Now if we gap down, then obviously the gap should fill, and then prompt more selling (usually occurs this way). Who knows.

Im in a USD/CAD long right now and I am hoping for a nice start to the week from that pair.
  • #131,672
  • May 9, 2009 4:24pm May 9, 2009 4:24pm
Here is some basic analysis. G/U seems to have approached some significant resistance (or soon to be).

Will this prompt a pullback? We would expect, but to where?

The trendline?
A lower support zone?
The 3500 lows?

Who knows.
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  • #131,673
  • May 9, 2009 5:09pm May 9, 2009 5:09pm
maybe?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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BANDA333
  • #131,674
  • May 9, 2009 5:32pm May 9, 2009 5:32pm
Quoting BANDA
maybe?
Im pretty sure we can see some downside move. There is always some sort of a correction. We just can be picky on how deep that correction is.
  • #131,675
  • May 9, 2009 5:37pm May 9, 2009 5:37pm
Heres a graph I just came across comparing US job losses in all recessions, including the current.

http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxbootcamp...thru-apr09.gif
  • #131,676
  • May 9, 2009 6:05pm May 9, 2009 6:05pm
Quoting jack.canadia
Here is some basic analysis. G/U seems to have approached some significant resistance (or soon to be).

Will this prompt a pullback? We would expect, but to where?

The trendline?
A lower support zone?
The 3500 lows?

Who knows.
I can tell you're reluctant to give a bias.... Similar to the confusion I've had all week...

Good analysis as always
  • #131,677
  • May 9, 2009 11:59pm May 9, 2009 11:59pm
Quoting smartalicus
I can tell you're reluctant to give a bias.... Similar to the confusion I've had all week...

Good analysis as always

The weekend quote here still showing 1.5239. Which one is more accurate?

http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm
  • #131,678
  • May 10, 2009 5:27am May 10, 2009 5:27am
GBP/USD

Sell at 1.5244
Stop at 1.5378
Target 1 at 1.501
Target 2 at 1.4619

What u say Jack ?
  • #131,679
  • May 10, 2009 7:24am May 10, 2009 7:24am
Quoting yanzsukechi
Hi Eric, I am sorry I did not get what you mean to say. Hope you could elaborate it further or make it easier for the benefits of the people who are like me (newbie). I really want to know. Hope you can help. Thanks and about the post you did above, will it give an uptrend or downtrend direction next week?

Can someone help me please? about the direction next week and about the post of Mr Eric
Hi Sorry about the late reply - Bank stress though rigged would have shown that banks need capitalisation - so in partnership with international central banks and leading banks and govt a situation of optimism has been created about there being a bull market - results got delayed till thursday so no one really got the chance to think about going over them in any detail. thurs and friday bull market rally and banks raise 16bn of money they needed - realy situation is that this is going to be an L shaped (thought could be a lazy L shaped) recession - without technological revolution or high leverage you cant have a bull market - there are no conditions for it. I'm not sure what will happen next week - either short sellers will get in action straight away or if they can squeese a bit more out of investors then they will try and do that. It depends on how much longer they can fool everybody that we will be back at Dec 2007 levels soon.
  • #131,680
  • May 10, 2009 10:53am May 10, 2009 10:53am
Quoting Faryad
GBP/USD

Sell at 1.5244
Stop at 1.5378
Target 1 at 1.501
Target 2 at 1.4619

What u say Jack ?
If price is not actually gapped down as much, I would like to sell at the highs (near the price you indicate), only because I would we be taking a short at resistance, not because I favor any particular direction now.

I do and I dont believe this price change business over the weekend. It seems like the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY have both gapped, but USD/CAD hasn't according to XE. So who knows.

We shalle see.
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