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  • #93,761
  • May 7, 2009 8:52am May 7, 2009 8:52am
Break-time.
  • #93,762
  • May 7, 2009 9:00am May 7, 2009 9:00am
Quoting emda
more and more traders are starting to realize that the dollars they have are worthless since the FED is going to send more new ones from the helicopter the next day... so what do you do having those papers ? convert them into something with more value before it is too late...
Well In my view it one side of the story...

I'm not gonna say i'm expert i'm just 2y trader but My Techical and Fundamental met in same point.

Everything goes as US wants But US lose the balance and as soon as they think they control everything will lose much and find out No recovery

Just my view.
  • #93,763
  • May 7, 2009 9:02am May 7, 2009 9:02am
Quoting notch
I had the same problem with my model. I came to realise that it is more psychological than system performance. What is the profit/loss ratio of your system? My system has a ratio of four, so on average I should earn 4 in profit for every pound put at risk. The down side is that it some times has a series of losses that I find hard to stomach or that I'm sitting on a heap of pips only to see them evaporate because no exit signal is generated.

But the expectancy/profit ratio changes if I start to second guess the signals of the model. Either, trade...

I have no specific p/l ratio. I just watch the R/S lines and PA action to try to understand the market, and then entry the trade. I found the price soldem counter my direction immediately after my entry. So I wont loss to much. The max loss is 50pips limited.

I did some statisc on my trading for 3 months. I trade about 3-5 times a week. After my entry, 30% is within 50pips max and then go opposite. 40% goes between 80pips - 130pips max. The rest 30% is most profit, usually 200-250 pips.

My problem is I always want the last 30%, u see how greedy I'm , and dont have a early and reliable exit signal. the result is I ruin everything.....
  • #93,764
  • May 7, 2009 9:05am May 7, 2009 9:05am
it's very difficult to say that if a number is more or less the pair would go up or down. because many times it does the opposite of what is expected or it is already priced in... or it is just a false movement and then reverses... it's like correlations. sometimes dow is correlated with eurusd... but sometimes not....

as I was saying some month ago. I would convert the dollars into AUD or NZD... or something different to a currency... like real assets.
  • #93,765
  • May 7, 2009 9:10am May 7, 2009 9:10am
Quoting xiaofeng0717
I have no specific p/l ratio. I just watch the R/S lines and PA action to try to understand the market, and then entry the trade. I found the price soldem counter my direction immediately after my entry. So I wont loss to much. The max loss is 50pips limited.

I did some statisc on my trading for 3 months. I trade about 3-5 times a week. After my entry, 30% is within 50pips max and then go opposite. 40% goes between 80pips - 130pips max. The rest 30%...
set your p/l ratio and would solve your problem.
set also how much % of balance you want to gain per month... so any excess of that can be considered extra to withdraw.
  • #93,766
  • May 7, 2009 9:12am May 7, 2009 9:12am
medium term.
no chart resistance until 1.3585 area(50% fib)
trendline from july 08 is at around 1.3550 today and decreasing

will set pending orders short 1.3500 and 1.3550 with 100 SL
if we never get there then no harm done
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #93,767
  • May 7, 2009 9:14am May 7, 2009 9:14am
Quoting trader69
mm, they do have a lot of bad loans on the books, but they are also cranking out a whole bunch of new ones. wells fargo did 800,000 loans in the first quarter alone. no stated/stated, all income qualifying and a lot of fha, which is 100% insured by uncle sam. plus, is in the process of buying up all those bad loans.

as for retrace, i see small pull backs from here until 9000, then maybe a big breather?
what no more NINJA loans??...whoa!...seems to me with people out of jobs and 20% down....a lot of foreclosures are being bought well below mkt value....but way too much inventory out there and prices haven't stabilized yet....wow i'm starting to sound like a pessimistic mtg broker....HA!!

mm


p.s. it hit 1.3435 three times and pulled back and last one could be a falsie...or fri non farm's come out a smidge better and BOOM! 1.6000?...but you know i always run against the masses....
He who hesitates is hesitant....which always leads to bad entries.
  • #93,768
  • May 7, 2009 9:42am May 7, 2009 9:42am
Hi guys...

this (in quotes below) is part of a news announcement on fxdd and i was wondering if someone can please help me understand what it means. In specific...what does "dollar rallies short-lived" mean?

"If the downtrend in jobless claims and the ADP data were not pure head fakes, tomorrow"s US jobs report ought to show some improvement versus the last month"s losses, which ought to keep dollar rallies short-lived."
  • #93,769
  • May 7, 2009 9:52am May 7, 2009 9:52am
Quoting BlueSky07
Hi guys...

this (in quotes below) is part of a news announcement on fxdd and i was wondering if someone can please help me understand what it means. In specific...what does "dollar rallies short-lived" mean?

"If the downtrend in jobless claims and the ADP data were not pure head fakes, tomorrow"s US jobs report ought to show some improvement versus the last month"s losses, which ought to keep dollar rallies short-lived."
Hi BlueSky07,

labor market improving => economy improving => risk appetite improving => dollar and yen are sold

LJ
1st step stop loss in the green 2nd step play with the free money
  • #93,770
  • May 7, 2009 9:53am May 7, 2009 9:53am
Quoting LeveragedJoe
Hi BlueSky07,

labor market improving => economy improving => risk appetite improving => dollar and yen are sold

LJ

Thanks LJ
  • #93,771
  • May 7, 2009 10:14am May 7, 2009 10:14am
Hi all,

First of all thanks to all that post here have been very helpfull.

I've been on this for bout 2 months now, mainly demo, where i actually doubled my initial cash in a week (20000 -> 37000).


Decided to start a real account, but well.. seems i have hesitation with real money and not working so well. Trying to fix that.

My question is, there is no real indicator or lead on the direction is there ? we're all just waiting to see wich way it goes ?
The trend.. just follow the trend.. (i think)
  • #93,772
  • May 7, 2009 10:27am May 7, 2009 10:27am
Quoting Whist
Hi all,

First of all thanks to all that post here have been very helpfull.

I've been on this for bout 2 months now, mainly demo, where i actually doubled my initial cash in a week (20000 -> 37000).


Decided to start a real account, but well.. seems i have hesitation with real money and not working so well. Trying to fix that.

My question is, there is no real indicator or lead on the direction is there ? we're all just waiting to see wich way it goes ?

sounds like you need a lot more demo time to build confidence.
trading is a never ending learning process.
read and contribute in forums such as this one and with time you might develop your own technique.
the best indicator is YOU-study price action and trends until you can make educated bets on what will happen next..


and before you get lost in the maze of scalping on this forum try out (on demo)a simple technique by a true master.
read the first few pages of the forum below
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27286
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #93,773
  • May 7, 2009 10:31am May 7, 2009 10:31am
I see today I have suddenly become a senior member. How did that happen, makes me feel too old.

Market is best not traded at present in my opinion. Could be setting up for a long trendless move and no clear patterns.
  • #93,774
  • May 7, 2009 10:37am May 7, 2009 10:37am
Pattern unstable. Although looks like triangle.
Attached Image
  • #93,775
  • May 7, 2009 10:40am May 7, 2009 10:40am
Eu in my view :

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=111
  • #93,776
  • May 7, 2009 10:41am May 7, 2009 10:41am
Quoting Atlast
I see today I have suddenly become a senior member. How did that happen, makes me feel too old.

Market is best not traded at present in my opinion. Could be setting up for a long trendless move and no clear patterns.




will try to keep my hand off the trigger until monday or teusday
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #93,777
  • May 7, 2009 10:43am May 7, 2009 10:43am
Quoting LeveragedJoe
Hi BlueSky07,

labor market improving => economy improving => risk appetite improving => dollar and yen are sold

LJ
True and logic to me
I keep sending post last 2 weeks but no one listen ok better stop posting.
Hi Barbie
Hi Ken!
Do you wanna go for a ride?
Sure Ken!
Jump In...
  • #93,778
  • May 7, 2009 10:47am May 7, 2009 10:47am
Quoting plan-b




will try to keep my hand off the trigger until monday or teusday
Ha, me too
Hope you did OK today. Tomorrow could be another wild day.
  • #93,779
  • May 7, 2009 10:47am May 7, 2009 10:47am
ATLAST - that was what just occurred to me - do you think we'll see R1 @ 13376 break. MACD on 30 mins is just about to cross.

I'm short from higher up but only because of doubling up to recover losses (I know that doesn't sound smart (its not) but I'm trading live account with small size to learn rather than demo). Back to break even but (being greedy) I sense a good break lower if we can get through R1, even if we retrace later on.

Hopefully I'm learning by being aware of all the mistakes I've learnt today: 1) deliberately trading at news time, 2) doubling up, 3) moving my stops, 4) ...

Its amazing how all those aphorisms are so true, especially the ones about greed and fear.

By the way, is there a big obsession with trains on this thread recently ? Check back a few pages and you'll see what I mean. Only joking though :-) Besides you'll be able to be a big train set with all your profits soon.
  • #93,780
  • May 7, 2009 10:47am May 7, 2009 10:47am
Quoting mphpopular
Eu in my view :

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=111
I am still learning. But could this be drawn right? it could be forming a rising wedge?
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