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  • #93,061
  • May 6, 2009 5:30am May 6, 2009 5:30am
Quoting Jhig
Why is everyone saying the ADP report is Good News?
It terrible news. Just because market analyst missed it by 150,000 (or so) doesn't mean it's good news. 500,000 jobs loss is bad news as the US can't take any more hits to the economy.

But I guess the market has spoken by giving the EUR the rally pips.
your right but its less bad then was priced in...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,062
  • May 6, 2009 5:32am May 6, 2009 5:32am
Quoting gatorinla
dust still not settled.
If there had been an initial 200 point jump I would then be saying WTF. The market was already slowly moving up and that was just 50 points. Not much. Let's see the other shoe drop and then know where we are going.

We have to retest 3440 anyway. May as well be today.
  • #93,063
  • May 6, 2009 5:33am May 6, 2009 5:33am
Swing levels:

@ 1.5770
@ 1.5577
@ 1.5457
@ 1.4638
@ 1.4116
@ 1.3572
@ 1.3262
@ 1.2879
  • #93,064
  • May 6, 2009 5:34am May 6, 2009 5:34am
We may be pausing shortly, next stop 1.3409
  • #93,065
  • May 6, 2009 5:35am May 6, 2009 5:35am
Quoting egkid
Have 3 position long since last week.I think 1.3300 - 1.3340 will tell impotant things when this 4H close but where
Nothing Better than trading long time frame.
  • #93,066
  • May 6, 2009 5:36am May 6, 2009 5:36am
Price seems to have hit a ceiling but that doesn't mean its over. As gatorinla has said ... dust still not settled
  • #93,067
  • May 6, 2009 5:37am May 6, 2009 5:37am
Quoting egkid
Nothing Better than trading long time frame.
Yes there is. You are right though, it's that time to trade the long time frame.
  • #93,068
  • May 6, 2009 5:37am May 6, 2009 5:37am
price has been bouncing in the range between the daily 200MA and the 1h 200MA for days/weeks. The one that breaks tells us if we are going up or down.
  • #93,069
  • May 6, 2009 5:38am May 6, 2009 5:38am
this is hmmmm stupid how come there is a good news for the us but eur/usd is going up
  • #93,070
  • May 6, 2009 5:40am May 6, 2009 5:40am
I wonder if our fellow in distress yesterday losing 2,500 took my advice, or anyone else for that matter.
  • #93,071
  • May 6, 2009 5:41am May 6, 2009 5:41am
Quoting dysan4x
If there had been an initial 200 point jump I would then be saying WTF. The market was already slowly moving up and that was just 50 points. Not much. Let's see the other shoe drop and then know where we are going.

We have to retest 3440 anyway. May as well be today.
it did pull many scalping stops longs first then the shorts..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,072
  • May 6, 2009 5:42am May 6, 2009 5:42am
Quoting Atlast
I wonder if our fellow in distress yesterday losing 2,500 took my advice, or anyone else for that matter.
I missed it! Jeez! What happened? Is he still alive? Did that represent all his capital?
  • #93,073
  • May 6, 2009 5:45am May 6, 2009 5:45am
Quoting mattpajek
this is hmmmm stupid how come there is a good news for the us but eur/usd is going up
bad news for u,s is worse news fo e-zone.. good news for u.s is better news for e-zone...since we buy their crap.. they export
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,074
  • May 6, 2009 5:47am May 6, 2009 5:47am
Quoting stewrigh
Wasn't that what caused the candle - I think all those shorts are now looking to go long - lol.

Never could understand how to read volume. To me the chart says lots of ppl went short and will now be looking to reverse their pos pushing price up or am I missing something???
On MT4 it's not the volume. That's the number of ticks what's shown.
Time goes you say? Ah, no! Time stays. We go...
  • #93,075
  • May 6, 2009 5:49am May 6, 2009 5:49am
Quoting mattpajek
this is hmmmm stupid how come there is a good news for the us but eur/usd is going up
There is very little empirical evidence to support the following hypothesis "news announcements impact the short and medium term FX prices in a predictable fashion."

If that wasn't the case then I expect that everyone on here would be trading the news.
  • #93,076
  • May 6, 2009 5:49am May 6, 2009 5:49am
Quoting gatorinla
bad news for u,s is worse news fo e-zone.. good news for u.s is better news for e-zone...since we buy their crap.. they export
hmmmm thank you i didn`t think about that.....how everything is connected
  • #93,077
  • May 6, 2009 5:52am May 6, 2009 5:52am
Quoting mattpajek
this is hmmmm stupid how come there is a good news for the us but eur/usd is going up
Technically, it's not good news to the US.
It's good news to the News Reporters in that Market Analyst's over shot that number by 150,00. 500,000 job loss is not good for an already strained, money depleted US economy. Hell I could have expected 1 million job losses and would have been praised to because the numbers were well below (expectations). A good question would be, Who are these people to me and why should I trust their expectations and market calls?".

Just goes to show, no one should trust the News and Analyts as they do not know anything on how an economy works. It's a perfect example of how news can be munipulated into anything they want it to be.
  • #93,078
  • May 6, 2009 5:54am May 6, 2009 5:54am
Quoting gatorinla
bad news for u,s is worse news fo e-zone.. good news for u.s is better news for e-zone...since we buy their crap.. they export
I wouldn't call german cars or english pottery crap, in fact even some eastern european exports are not bad quality.
  • #93,079
  • May 6, 2009 5:56am May 6, 2009 5:56am
Quoting notch
I missed it! Jeez! What happened? Is he still alive? Did that represent all his capital?
It was over 20% of his capital I remember. I think the posts were about 10.00 p.m. UK time
  • #93,080
  • May 6, 2009 6:09am May 6, 2009 6:09am
Quoting mattpajek
this is hmmmm stupid how come there is a good news for the us but eur/usd is going up
That's why some people call them "funny-mentals" instead of fundamentals. Sometimes it just doesn't make sense. I remember back in 2004 the US had a NFP release that put over 300,000 people back in work. The market initially spiked down about 100 pips then Cable ran up about 300 pips because at that time the trend was up. I didn't follow the EUR much back then but the US$ got thrashed by everything that day even though the figure had far exceeded any expectations.

I'm sidelined because as much as it looks tempting to short, I'm not that confident to do so. Daily, weekly and monthly timeframes say up to me and I don't have time to babysit the trade and I'm not that confident to buy at these levels not knowing what announcement Mr Trichet may come out with in relation to QE tomorrow.
Nothing worth having is easy.
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