DislikedThis week i am expecting the market to discount from EU the forthcoming rate cut, so i will be looking for shorts on this pair.
GL allIgnored
If rate comes in at 0.25% it will be a non event as the forecast is 0.25%. The forecast has been incorrect 4 months in the last 8 years.
But if rates are cut it will be against forecast and should therefore cause the USD to weaken not strenghten. In your rate cut scenario I see that you should be buying the pair, not shorting. But that's fundimentals and we know fundimentals have not exactly been followed lately.
Or am I misunderstanding your post?
Personaly I see the GDP Q/Q being more of a pip mover next week.
JC