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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #10,201
  • Apr 11, 2007 11:32am Apr 11, 2007 11:32am
Quoting Big P
Well, I'm biased. I need it to plummet but I believe it will level out or go back North. Personally, I wouldn't short anymore, but that's just me. Picked up a few pips on the slide down.
So I guess you're holding some shorts....hopefully you don't lose your shorts on a mad dash for 2.00....
  • #10,202
  • Apr 11, 2007 11:32am Apr 11, 2007 11:32am
Dollar longs bounced off their nearest resistances. Break of this level is expected on strong news...

My sentiment is dollar short across the majors, except yen, which I'm Yen short (incl. yen crosses) . Just looking for good prices to go in.

These are short-term sentiment. Today's bounce off 9814 without triggering profit taking leaves the sentiment that 98s are going to be tested again.

- no way this is a trade advice... I'm going in with small lots only.
  • #10,203
  • Apr 11, 2007 11:36am Apr 11, 2007 11:36am
Quoting cesarnc
Dollar longs bounced off their nearest resistances. Break of this level is expected on strong news...

My sentiment is dollar short across the majors, except yen, which I'm Yen short (incl. yen crosses) . Just looking for good prices to go in.

These are short-term sentiment. Today's bounce off 9814 without triggering profit taking leaves the sentiment that 98s are going to be tested again.

- no way this is a trade advice... I'm going in with small lots only.
Yea...what he said....
  • #10,204
  • Apr 11, 2007 11:36am Apr 11, 2007 11:36am
Quoting cesarnc
Dollar longs bounced off their nearest resistances. Break of this level is expected on strong news...

My sentiment is dollar short across the majors, except yen, which I'm Yen short (incl. yen crosses) . Just looking for good prices to go in.

These are short-term sentiment. Today's bounce off 9814 without triggering profit taking leaves the sentiment that 98s are going to be tested again.

- no way this is a trade advice... I'm going in with small lots only.
You are shorting from 9750? Do you have tight stops and where do you think this will go? 96
  • #10,205
  • Apr 11, 2007 11:37am Apr 11, 2007 11:37am
Quoting Pipsta
So I guess you're holding some shorts....hopefully you don't lose your shorts on a mad dash for 2.00....
Manager who is great is holding onto shorts. You guys have me sweating bullets with all this 2.00 malarky. Stop it please....
  • #10,206
  • Apr 11, 2007 11:49am Apr 11, 2007 11:49am
Quoting Big P
Manager who is great is holding onto shorts. You guys have me sweating bullets with all this 2.00 malarky. Stop it please....
Ok, sorry. Although I will caution that the weekly chart isn't still completely overbought yet and still engaged in a very bullish pattern. The daily chart gave back much of it's overbought look and now sits short/neutral with potential bull cross on the stoch coming in the next day. The best sign for your shorts is that the 4hr chart TL was busted on it's drop to 9591 and even though it popped back up to hot range MAs(I use 5 & 8 sma for that) on the 4hr it still looks like it wants to drop again.

The bad news is none of the hot range MAs have even begun to turn yet on that 4hr chart so until those do I can't see myself shorting unless I get in at the top of the range which is above 1.98.
  • #10,207
  • Apr 11, 2007 11:50am Apr 11, 2007 11:50am
I think that cable will go down to 1.97 today and tomorrow. Then it might try to retest the 1.98 level again.
  • #10,208
  • Apr 11, 2007 11:51am Apr 11, 2007 11:51am
Quoting Big P
You are shorting from 9750? Do you have tight stops and where do you think this will go? 96
I said "dollar short" -> majors/USD longs
  • #10,209
  • Apr 11, 2007 11:56am Apr 11, 2007 11:56am
Quoting Pipsta
Ok, sorry. Although I will caution that the weekly chart isn't still completely overbought yet and still engaged in a very bullish pattern. The daily chart gave back much of it's overbought look and now sits short/neutral with potential bull cross on the stoch coming in the next day. The best sign for your shorts is that the 4hr chart TL was busted on it's drop to 9591 and even though it popped back up to hot range MAs(I use 5 & 8 sma for that) on the 4hr it still looks like it wants to drop again.

The bad news is none of the hot range MAs have even begun to turn yet on that 4hr chart so until those do I can't see myself shorting unless I get in at the top of the range which is above 1.98.
Well, lucky enough I have enough margin to wait out the storm. I just hope his theories are right on this one. Grrrr, I was so close to pulling the trigger on that 98 last night in my own account. That would have eased some tension.
  • #10,210
  • Apr 11, 2007 12:01pm Apr 11, 2007 12:01pm
Quoting Pipsta

The bad news is none of the hot range MAs have even begun to turn yet on that 4hr chart so until those do I can't see myself shorting unless I get in at the top of the range which is above 1.98.
words of wisdom... I check on larger timeframes MAs too... If they say "do it", I think 10 times. If they say "don't" I don't
  • #10,211
  • Apr 11, 2007 12:02pm Apr 11, 2007 12:02pm
any news from the fed?
  • #10,212
  • Apr 11, 2007 12:09pm Apr 11, 2007 12:09pm
Quoting details
any news from the fed?
Check this http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...ostcount=10199
  • #10,213
  • Apr 11, 2007 12:10pm Apr 11, 2007 12:10pm
I think that the FOMC minutes will provide support for the USD in the coming days.
On the short term, I would short 1.9760
  • #10,214
  • Apr 11, 2007 12:19pm Apr 11, 2007 12:19pm
Quoting forexnovice
Check this http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...ostcount=10199
thank's
  • #10,215
  • Edited 12:47pm Apr 11, 2007 12:23pm | Edited 12:47pm
Quoting Big P
Well, lucky enough I have enough margin to wait out the storm. I just hope his theories are right on this one. Grrrr, I was so close to pulling the trigger on that 98 last night in my own account. That would have eased some tension.
I could never have a managed account....if anyone is going to lose my money, it's me! Although I've been studying forex market for 5 years now but it was two years of demo before I even starting trading live. So I gave myself alot of learning time before I tried it with my money. I still have to tighten up my execution. It's hard when you look at it everyday many times a day to execute fully without bailing too soon.

My 15min chart is telling me that the last bounce up off the drop to 9730 is staying in the hot range. Although it didn't leap off that range when it touched, it's kinda stuck right around there. I use the SMA of 5 & 8 for what I call 'hot range'. If a pair stays ahead of those two MAs and leaps back off them on a return touch it tells me that the current trend on that particular time frame still has legs. This is true of any time frame. It's not guaranteed, of course nothing is, but if you put those two on your charts if you notice how if the price breaks the 8sma it's usually signals a return to at least the 14sma. On my 4hr which has the TL break and indicates the best chance of a short run the 8sma is at 9752 and the 14sma is at 9707 with that 14sma charging hard north. The daily chart has a 5/8 sma bear cross two days ago on that drop to 9591 and that usually is a good indication that the current trend is losing steam. There was another bear cross of those two a couple weeks ago that wound up crossing back bullish after a few days but this new cross has much more separation of the two.

This is quite a range the cable has at over 2 pennies wide. Any visit to the bottom of the range takes the price to low 96s. Two different potential upper trendlines give me a top range of that could be anywhere from 9850 to 9950 with the higher one being the TL drawn from tops in April and late March which is this current trends tops. Any move to fulfill the upper trendline could result in a test of 2.00 as well.

As I watch now the past three 15min candles have been held like guy with a bad haircut out of a hot club by the bouncer by that 8sma. Which is good news even if it isn't all that convincing yet.
  • #10,216
  • Apr 11, 2007 1:32pm Apr 11, 2007 1:32pm
It looks like the cable is staying below the 8sma on the 4hr chart after it broke that sma last 4hr candle. The longer it stays below that sma the better it looks for shorts. The 4hr chart 5sma gave it's first indication of downturn by...yes, turning down with the new 4hr candle. My preliminary analysis of this turn of events is....I think I'll have a late lunch. I got out of my scalp with a 15 pip clip. Looks like alot of middling around for probably till Asian session I just don't care to mess with.
  • #10,217
  • Edited 4:30pm Apr 11, 2007 4:04pm | Edited 4:30pm
No breach of 9678 I'm bullish. Big time.

Below it, I'm a buyer at fib levels low 9211 - high 9822

4hr formed a channel with 9211 - 9600 as lower trendline and 9678 - 9822 as upper.

This kind of channel in Cable is usually powerful and trading accordingly rewards.

I expect a clutch of supports at 9589, too. Channel, 4hr 250 EMA and 38% fib.

As they say, an image is worth a thousand words...
Attached Image
  • #10,218
  • Apr 11, 2007 6:03pm Apr 11, 2007 6:03pm
Quoting ashlee_17
I think that the FOMC minutes will provide support for the USD in the coming days.
On the short term, I would short 1.9760
FOMC minutes: Summary of analyst commentary; Many suggest Fed is having trouble communicating its intentions to markets - "This is the most inconsistent piece of communication we have seen under the new Fed chairman. I think there is a big fight going on inside the Fed between officials who are more worried about inflation and those more concerned about growth." (David Jones, head of DMJ Advisors)
- "The minutes are a little bit more hawkish than anticipated. The thing that really stands out is that there seemed to be a general consensus on the committee that the upside risk to inflation was the predominant risk." (John Shin, an economist at Lehman Brothers)
- "What this statement clarifies is that the possibility of rate hikes isn't totally discounted." (Doug Roberts at Channel Capital Research)
- "The Fed is still caught between a rock and a hard place; the rock is inflation the hard place is the slowing economy." (Paul Nolte at Hinsdale Associates)
- "It is very clear that, at the time of the March FOMC meeting, the Fed was receiving input that was challenging their original outlook for the economy and inflation that they had put together at the beginning of the year." (William Sullivan at JJJ)
- "The minutes show the Fed is quite happy to sit where it is now to see how things work." (Former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley)
- "The dollar is rallying after the minutes, because it's been plunging for such a long time that it has no way to go but up." (Axel Merk at Merk Hard Currency Fund) <related: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD > 04/11/2007
  • #10,219
  • Apr 11, 2007 6:11pm Apr 11, 2007 6:11pm
Quoting wshhmm
FOMC minutes: Summary of analyst commentary; Many suggest Fed is having trouble communicating its intentions to markets -


NOOOO KIIDDDIIINNG!!!!

Quote
"This is the most inconsistent piece of communication we have seen under the new Fed chairman. I think there is a big fight going on inside the Fed between officials who are more worried about inflation and those more concerned about growth." (David Jones, head of DMJ Advisors)


Anybody miss Mr. Greenspan?


WOW.. those are definitely calls for alcohol. Thanks wshhmm
  • #10,220
  • Apr 11, 2007 6:17pm Apr 11, 2007 6:17pm
"Meeting participants agreed that, while recent economic data had been mixed, the economy was likely to expand at a moderate pace in coming quarter," the minutes showed.

How likely is an economy to grow with such heightened inflation worry? Further devalue your currrency? Lets discuss this.

Jest
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