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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #10,161
  • Apr 11, 2007 1:13am Apr 11, 2007 1:13am
Nice up move. But still ill be waiting for a good short above 9800. most probably before fomc minutes.
  • #10,162
  • Apr 11, 2007 1:17am Apr 11, 2007 1:17am
Quoting moneyking
Hi guys, my first post here at FF but have been a silent admirer of many of u there. have been reading into a few threads here with a view to see what the common market perception is. Also to check out some pieces of valuable inputs coz at times,it is quite useful when i see and say to myself, how the heck i was going to take that trade without this fibo into account. The fibo that someone here may have been looking into.
Currently on 1 hr time frame i have gone short on pound at 9725 with the following things passing through my mind
1. A support trendline joining the lows made on 14 march and 30 March comes in today at about 9735.
2. a strong congestion Zone between 9720-9770 on many previous occasions.
3. 61.8 retracement of 98 plus to 9590 at 9735.
4.CCI divergence on 1 hr chat
5.RSI on i hr chart at oversold region
6.A 5 wave upcount from 9590 on 1 hr chart is quite visible
7.No data today and already a daily range of 120 pips covered

All the above factors going into the decision to sell

Concerns for me.

1.All momentam oscillators on 4 hours charts are positive
2.Carry are quite strong today with GY above 235
3. Market simply want to take all that i earned this month :surprised

So i have a short at 9725 and would short another lot at 9770 with stop above 9800 plus and target near 9700 euther today or tomorrow.

Comments?

Exited short at 9710 overnight but couldnt ride the long side. Today would look to short around 9820-9850 for the same small 15-25 pip ride. Also euro is quite struggling when compared to pound today as of this post.
  • #10,163
  • Apr 11, 2007 1:21am Apr 11, 2007 1:21am
Lets watch, how the market positions itself for FOMC and subsequent statement from Bernanke. As of now, USD is being sold on majors either as a follow up move of yesterday or as a result of prepositioning for softer comments out of FOMC event.If USD gets oversold before the event like covering ATR on majors even before the event, i would like to buy on USD for a small gain just before release which may be possibly caused by some position squaring ahead of event.
  • #10,164
  • Apr 11, 2007 1:45am Apr 11, 2007 1:45am
Here´s an updated hourly chart. Nice 5 wave rally, now in Wave 5 with targets of 9788 (just hit), 9811 and 9841. If the Euro and gbpjpy keep rallying I would expect these to come into play.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 60 m cablr apr 11 230 am.jpg Size: 57 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #10,165
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:10am Apr 11, 2007 2:10am
Quoting Spineynorman
ya I am thinking 1.9800. what you ladies and gents think?

woooohhoo ya baby
Fear is the mind killer.
  • #10,166
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:37am Apr 11, 2007 2:37am
UK Treasury source says any change to foreign divident tax regime would be revenue neutral. GBPUSD: drops from 1.9805 to 1.9780 on that .
Its My Way,, U dont have to follow
  • #10,167
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:45am Apr 11, 2007 2:45am
So do you think that is a good reason to short this baby from here?
  • #10,168
  • Apr 11, 2007 2:48am Apr 11, 2007 2:48am
Quoting southernmind
So do you think that is a good reason to short this baby from here?

im buying now?
Its My Way,, U dont have to follow
  • #10,169
  • Apr 11, 2007 3:50am Apr 11, 2007 3:50am
No changed in our view, GBPUSD is topping at 1.9824 on daily chart. Key support is at 1.9545, a break below this level will confirm the cycle top and fall towards 1.9183 previous low will be seen. On the other side, previous high 1.9824 is treated as the key resistance of the up trend, a break above this level will indicate long term bullish movement is underway and further rise above 1.9913 can be seen. For long term analysis, the pair is in consolidation of the long term bullish movement. Fall towards 1.9183 previous low to reach the next cycle bottom on weekly chart is still in favor if the key resistance at 1.9824 holds.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #10,170
  • Apr 11, 2007 3:59am Apr 11, 2007 3:59am
Hi Moe,

Whoa, didn't see that coming.

Good to hear from you.

Quoting Moe
No changed in our view, GBPUSD is topping at 1.9824 on daily chart. Key support is at 1.9545, a break below this level will confirm the cycle top and fall towards 1.9183 previous low will be seen. On the other side, previous high 1.9824 is treated as the key resistance of the up trend, a break above this level will indicate long term bullish movement is underway and further rise above 1.9913 can be seen. For long term analysis, the pair is in consolidation of the long term bullish movement. Fall towards 1.9183 previous low to reach the next cycle bottom on weekly chart is still in favor if the key resistance at 1.9824 holds.
Still waters run deep
  • #10,171
  • Apr 11, 2007 5:23am Apr 11, 2007 5:23am
Quoting mktjong
Well, after I read your sound and logical insight. I closed my short Cable trade and open up long instead. I got my winning trade with tp hit (40 pips). Thanks.
That's the spirit
  • #10,172
  • Apr 11, 2007 6:49am Apr 11, 2007 6:49am
Will we see 9800 again today or is this the beginning of a short from 9770ish?
  • #10,173
  • Apr 11, 2007 10:32am Apr 11, 2007 10:32am
short 1.9788 tight stop
  • #10,174
  • Apr 11, 2007 10:34am Apr 11, 2007 10:34am
So back to the market ... so slow heading up? short term.
Bernanke seems to have little effect so far
  • #10,175
  • Apr 11, 2007 10:38am Apr 11, 2007 10:38am
hi guys, back from a relaxing, fun and expensive vacation. Now I need to make money, but missed all my signals to enter the market. Sitting here twiddling my thumbs, deciding if to wait for a top and then short or just jump in long, can't decide so I'm just watching and waiting, hope I don't have to wait too long.
  • #10,176
  • Apr 11, 2007 11:06am Apr 11, 2007 11:06am
Quoting Moe
No changed in our view, GBPUSD is topping at 1.9824 on daily chart. Key support is at 1.9545, a break below this level will confirm the cycle top and fall towards 1.9183 previous low will be seen. On the other side, previous high 1.9824 is treated as the key resistance of the up trend, a break above this level will indicate long term bullish movement is underway and further rise above 1.9913 can be seen. For long term analysis, the pair is in consolidation of the long term bullish movement. Fall towards 1.9183 previous low to reach the next cycle bottom on weekly chart is still in favor if the key resistance at 1.9824 holds.
I tend to agree with this analyst,it does however seem to be a bit,overly optomistic. if we fail to make a higher high above 1.9824 a lower low below 1.9593 is likely, I would'nt ask for much more than that.
  • #10,177
  • Apr 11, 2007 11:21am Apr 11, 2007 11:21am
Overbought rsi on 4hr chart.

Currently short frm 1.9780 TP 1.9710 SL 1.9814
  • #10,178
  • Apr 11, 2007 11:34am Apr 11, 2007 11:34am
be careful with bernanke speech...

Quoting forexnovice
Overbought rsi on 4hr chart.

Currently short frm 1.9780 TP 1.9710 SL 1.9814
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #10,179
  • Apr 11, 2007 11:54am Apr 11, 2007 11:54am
Quoting leelee75k
hi guys, back from a relaxing, fun and expensive vacation. Now I need to make money, but missed all my signals to enter the market. Sitting here twiddling my thumbs, deciding if to wait for a top and then short or just jump in long, can't decide so I'm just watching and waiting, hope I don't have to wait too long.
Nice seeing you back.... Also very nice you're not going to miss the 99s that bothered you so badly ... Maybe soon?
  • #10,180
  • Apr 11, 2007 12:22pm Apr 11, 2007 12:22pm
Quoting cesarnc
Nice seeing you back.... Also very nice you're not going to miss the 99s that bothered you so badly ... Maybe soon?
Hey Cesarnc,
I am still long at .9913! Feeling a little nervous...
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