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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #10,141
  • Apr 10, 2007 3:17pm Apr 10, 2007 3:17pm
Quoting Big P
Islander,
When you say long term, what does that mean? Days, weeks, months?
My comment was...

"All the longer term TFs are pointing up....only 5 min down".

More accurately, I should have said that the 15 min and hourly were still pointing up, as I´m not really looking at any higher TFs for my shorter term trades.

Thus at present I would consider any shorts as contra trend and firstly trade less than half my normal position, with a tight stop and secondly not let any profit turn into a loss. Just my opinion. There are many others in this thread!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #10,142
  • Apr 10, 2007 3:23pm Apr 10, 2007 3:23pm
Quoting mktjong
Does Dow Jones have correlationship with USD?
Since the Chinese crisis, followed by worldwide stocks selloff, "risk apetite/aversion" is the theme

So dow jones going up indicates that investors are more and more confortable with riskier assets, and carry trades are the pairs the money flows to and from the Equity market.

Carry trades up means risk apetite. Down means risk aversion... Of course I keep Swiss and CAD under the microscope, since they are also related with risk (safety in CHF and oil in CAD)

So dow jones positive today - several days positive already - FAVOURS GBPJPY upwards. Favours, not FORCE OR GUARANTEES.

With market selling JPY and buying GBP, GBPUSD goes along or stalls (if UJ soars). Ultimately, GBPUSD's downside is not favoured in this broader environment.... Attention, this is short term market reaction. A selloff in dow jones tomorrow may trigger another carry trades selloff...
  • #10,143
  • Apr 10, 2007 3:27pm Apr 10, 2007 3:27pm
Does the BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y tonight have a big effect on the GU? If so, am I right to assume a stronger than projected percentage will push GU up? Sorry for the basic questions but I am still learning! Thanks for all the replies...
  • #10,144
  • Apr 10, 2007 3:30pm Apr 10, 2007 3:30pm
Quoting cesarnc
Since the Chinese crisis, followed by worldwide stocks selloff, "risk apetite/aversion" is the theme

So dow jones going up indicates that investors are more and more confortable with riskier assets, and carry trades are the pairs the money flows to and from the Equity market.

Carry trades up means risk apetite. Down means risk aversion... Of course I keep Swiss and CAD under the microscope, since they are also related with risk (safety in CHF and oil in CAD)

So dow jones positive today - several days positive already - FAVOURS GBPJPY upwards. Favours, not FORCE OR GUARANTEES.

With market selling JPY and buying GBP, GBPUSD goes along or stalls (if UJ soars). Ultimately, GBPUSD's downside is not favoured in this broader environment.... Attention, this is short term market reaction. A selloff in dow jones tomorrow may trigger another carry trades selloff...
Wow, thanks so much for the lesson. I've learned a lot here. I didn't quite clear with Risk aversion and so forth, only know oil and gold correlation, now it has open up quite a bit http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #10,145
  • Apr 10, 2007 3:33pm Apr 10, 2007 3:33pm
Cesarnc,
I rarely post here in this forum, but I used to read this thread on a daily basis, I really like your way of thinking, wishing you happy trades
  • #10,146
  • Apr 10, 2007 5:53pm Apr 10, 2007 5:53pm
Thanks guys.

80% of what I've learned, including this risk vs. trend vs. carries came from generous people from this forum who gave the info for free. Of course I lost good money in the process for not going along with those kind of information. I just feel the duty of giving it back here.

I still have a lot things to learn and still face several difficulties many times. I still have bad (late) entries and bad (early) exits, my main difficulty.

I also miss good opportunities not trading other pairs like Swiss, Kiwi and CAD, but I'm working on that, too.

I like to share my views here for discussion only. I don't pretend to be the lord of the truth and I can close all trades I have once a good opposite point is posted here, proving I'm wrong.

Staying with the trend and sticking with my view - instead of other - lead me to start making money, instead of losing or breaking even. These are precious lessons.

  • #10,147
  • Apr 10, 2007 6:04pm Apr 10, 2007 6:04pm
Quoting mktjong
Wow, thanks so much for the lesson. I've learned a lot here. I didn't quite clear with Risk aversion and so forth, only know oil and gold correlation, now it has open up quite a bit http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Know how I learned that lesson, my friend? Losing a great deal of $ during the carry trades selloff due the Chinese crisis, guess you remember...

Just went after information to understand how those things (stocks vs. currencies) were corretated to each other to inspire such huge move.

Too good I learned before the turnaround and I got the cash back during the move up from GJ 221 - 234.....

Now I trade with 4 pairs open, 1 maket commentary website, USD index and Dow Jones in my screen... No way apparent nonsenses like this will get me off guard again!!!


Suggestion is: go after underlying fundamentals that move the currencies. By fundamental, I don't mean the figures in the announcements and the immediate term reaction. But that whose figures represent in a broader view.

You know what is the trend's direction not by oversold/overbought indicators, but by observing the market at large.

Did you notice that USD needed a very strong NFP to go up and just a quick rumor (USD on WTO against China) to be quickly sold? I read this as USD is weak, so staying USD short when pairs are at good prices to buy is a GO GO GO !!!! This is the way I trade fundis. Well, with this and other several informations, commentaries, so forth, gathered througout the day.
  • #10,148
  • Apr 10, 2007 6:19pm Apr 10, 2007 6:19pm
I went long GBP/USD @1.9709 TP 19775 SL 1.9675
  • #10,149
  • Apr 10, 2007 6:33pm Apr 10, 2007 6:33pm
Quoting cesarnc
Since the Chinese crisis, followed by worldwide stocks selloff, "risk apetite/aversion" is the theme

So dow jones going up indicates that investors are more and more confortable with riskier assets, and carry trades are the pairs the money flows to and from the Equity market.

Carry trades up means risk apetite. Down means risk aversion... Of course I keep Swiss and CAD under the microscope, since they are also related with risk (safety in CHF and oil in CAD)

So dow jones positive today - several days positive already - FAVOURS GBPJPY upwards. Favours, not FORCE OR GUARANTEES.

With market selling JPY and buying GBP, GBPUSD goes along or stalls (if UJ soars). Ultimately, GBPUSD's downside is not favoured in this broader environment.... Attention, this is short term market reaction. A selloff in dow jones tomorrow may trigger another carry trades selloff...
....excellent piece of information!
  • #10,150
  • Apr 10, 2007 7:28pm Apr 10, 2007 7:28pm
tomorrow (Wed) is FOMC and Bernanke. All-Dollar day. Watch for market positioning ahead of the news and messy moves during the speech.

Last month I made pips enough only to buy the painkillers for the headache this gentleman managed to give me
  • #10,151
  • Apr 10, 2007 8:53pm Apr 10, 2007 8:53pm
Quoting cesarnc
Know how I learned that lesson, my friend? Losing a great deal of $ during the carry trades selloff due the Chinese crisis, guess you remember...

Just went after information to understand how those things (stocks vs. currencies) were corretated to each other to inspire such huge move.

Too good I learned before the turnaround and I got the cash back during the move up from GJ 221 - 234.....

Now I trade with 4 pairs open, 1 maket commentary website, USD index and Dow Jones in my screen... No way apparent nonsenses like this will get me off guard again!!!


Suggestion is: go after underlying fundamentals that move the currencies. By fundamental, I don't mean the figures in the announcements and the immediate term reaction. But that whose figures represent in a broader view.

You know what is the trend's direction not by oversold/overbought indicators, but by observing the market at large.

Did you notice that USD needed a very strong NFP to go up and just a quick rumor (USD on WTO against China) to be quickly sold? I read this as USD is weak, so staying USD short when pairs are at good prices to buy is a GO GO GO !!!! This is the way I trade fundis. Well, with this and other several informations, commentaries, so forth, gathered througout the day.
Thanks cesarnc, these are priceless information. I can really see how to improve my trades from now on. Thanks for your unselfish heart as well willing to share, really appreciate it http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
May all who read it gain this priceless insight. If you already have a basic forex trading skill, you know what this info meant here. Blessings!
  • #10,152
  • Apr 10, 2007 9:04pm Apr 10, 2007 9:04pm
Quoting cesarnc
Thanks guys.

80% of what I've learned, including this risk vs. trend vs. carries came from generous people from this forum who gave the info for free. Of course I lost good money in the process for not going along with those kind of information. I just feel the duty of giving it back here.

I still have a lot things to learn and still face several difficulties many times. I still have bad (late) entries and bad (early) exits, my main difficulty.

I also miss good opportunities not trading other pairs like Swiss, Kiwi and CAD, but I'm working on that, too.

I like to share my views here for discussion only. I don't pretend to be the lord of the truth and I can close all trades I have once a good opposite point is posted here, proving I'm wrong.

Staying with the trend and sticking with my view - instead of other - lead me to start making money, instead of losing or breaking even. These are precious lessons.

Well, after I read your sound and logical insight. I closed my short Cable trade and open up long instead. I got my winning trade with tp hit (40 pips). Thanks.
  • #10,153
  • Apr 10, 2007 9:07pm Apr 10, 2007 9:07pm
cesarnc...you are truly the caesar. Seldom you see a techie who is pretty sound with fundamentals too. My uncle used to tell me.."Being a good techie, you can be a good trader, couple it with fundamentals, you'll be a RAIDER, u still have a long way to go my boy." Bah!

regards
Jest
  • #10,154
  • Apr 10, 2007 9:10pm Apr 10, 2007 9:10pm
Quoting pino2
I went long GBP/USD @1.9709 TP 19775 SL 1.9675
Target is hit +61 pips
  • #10,155
  • Apr 10, 2007 9:28pm Apr 10, 2007 9:28pm
Quoting pino2
Target is hit +61 pips
Nice one. Gone short now myself at 1.9775 for a return below 1.9750. Now the question is why did it move up 80 pips in the asian session with no news? or did I miss something on the news front

GF
  • #10,156
  • Apr 10, 2007 9:42pm Apr 10, 2007 9:42pm
Hi Girlflyer,

just curious, what is ur signal going short? All the more since ur not sure why it moved up so much without any news.

regards
jest
  • #10,157
  • Apr 10, 2007 9:49pm Apr 10, 2007 9:49pm
Quoting jest1081
Hi Girlflyer,

just curious, what is ur signal going short? All the more since ur not sure why it moved up so much without any news.

regards
jest
I'm pretty much a purely technical trader Jest. I like to play off the resistance/support points of currency pairs. The top at 1.9775 was a major point of resistance. So I went short there. With no apparent reason for the move up (although there obviously was one), at some point or another, some retracement should occur. I will try to take as much of that retracement as I can, and if it looks like it heads back on up, then I get out at break even or better.

GF
  • #10,158
  • Apr 10, 2007 9:54pm Apr 10, 2007 9:54pm
Sydney,
April 11: An article in the FT states that UK-based multinationals would be
allowed to repatriate billions of GBP of foreign profits tax free back to the UK
if proposals being drawn up by Treasury to improve the competitiveness of the
British tax system are implemented.
According to the FT The Treasury will issue a consultation paper this spring
to discuss the option of bringing the British system into line with mainland
Europe, which does not tax foreign dividends.
If the proposals are accepted than it would be a big boost to the GBP, as the
so-called HIA related flows were to the USD at the end of 2005.
The GBP/USD has surged higher as a result of the FT story and has traded as
high as 1.9780 after opening the session around 1.9715. The GBP/USD trades
1.9774/79. [email protected]



[IFR Forex Watch]
[SQUAWK BOX]
  • #10,159
  • Apr 10, 2007 10:01pm Apr 10, 2007 10:01pm
Quoting darnell
Sydney,
April 11: An article in the FT states that UK-based multinationals would be
allowed to repatriate billions of GBP of foreign profits tax free back to the UK
if proposals being drawn up by Treasury to improve the competitiveness of the
British tax system are implemented.
According to the FT The Treasury will issue a consultation paper this spring
to discuss the option of bringing the British system into line with mainland
Europe, which does not tax foreign dividends.
If the proposals are accepted than it would be a big boost to the GBP, as the
so-called HIA related flows were to the USD at the end of 2005.
The GBP/USD has surged higher as a result of the FT story and has traded as
high as 1.9780 after opening the session around 1.9715. The GBP/USD trades
1.9774/79. [email protected]



[IFR Forex Watch]
[SQUAWK BOX]
ok, well at least that explains all

GF
  • #10,160
  • Apr 10, 2007 10:26pm Apr 10, 2007 10:26pm
Retracement from 1.9776 stalled at 1.9755 support level, out with +18 pip profit (Read LinuxTrolls "Scalpers go Here" thread). I do a lot of these short term trades throughout the day.

Possibility for continued movement back down though to 1.9750 and 1.9735 support levels.

GF
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