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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #129,381
  • Edited 9:43am Apr 9, 2009 9:19am | Edited 9:43am
Quoting gammase1
I am not arguing that the current market optimism towards the banking sector is justified.

Indeed, I take the opposing view, as I have done for a long time now, often on this forum.
There is a greater war taking place - Chinese dont want to appreciate their currency as they have been asked to do numerous times - so to reduce trade deficity they devalue USD - still china and russia get upset as they have biggest foreign reserves in China - threaten liquidating and dumping USD as reserve currency - result - BoE and Fed impotency to do anything. The RIGHT thing to do at this point in time is to let USD appreciate (even for a short term) to reassert its global status and stop intervening with private institutions and let the market correct itself and bottom out to end these bear rallies once and for all and let the bull arrive even though he might be weak bull as he feeds he will become stronger - but if we keep him locked up how can we hope to improve? No more stimulus please! And stronger emphasis on QE helping meet budget deficit an back up for emergency would have also helped but nothing comes until someone kicks someone up and they move.
  • #129,382
  • Apr 9, 2009 9:23am Apr 9, 2009 9:23am
Quoting gammase1
I am not arguing that the current market optimism towards the banking sector is justified. Indeed, I take the opposing view, as I have done for a long time now, often on this forum.

However, this positive sentiment is the reality we face today, and it is real. Furthermore, it may take quite some time for the harsh reality of the situation to shatter the investors' misguided perceptions. Alternatively, my negative belief that a great portion of the banking sector are insolvent may turn out to be overdone. Time will tell.
Might not be AS bad but it definitly is worse then what we are being told - assett reclassification needs a correction figure that dates before the credit bubble hyperinflated assett backed securities and classes - this could in the worse case scenario be worth $4 trillion - so whats the best case even if its half that its less then TARP and more then US govt can borrow or reduce their GDP to meet.
  • #129,383
  • Apr 9, 2009 9:31am Apr 9, 2009 9:31am
Quoting EricB
There is a greater war taking place - Chinese dont want to appreciate their currency as they have been asked to do numerous times - so to reduce trade deficity they devalue USD - still china and russia get upset as they have biggest foreign reserves in China - threaten liquidating and dumping USD as reserve currency - result - BoE and Fed impotency to do anything. The RIGHT thing to do at this point in time is to let USD appreciate (even for a short term) to reassert its global status and stop intervening with private institutions and let the market...
I disagree. I think the downside risks are too great not to intervene in the banking sector. The financial markets have grown so large and so intertwined that they are unable to correct themselves. Look at the leg lower the global economy endured after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, as an example of this theory.

I argued long ago for failing institutions to be nationalised, shareholders wiped out, and these banks be cleaned up, re-capitalised, normal lending resumed and, eventually, sold off to the private sector when the worst had passed for the global economy. This was the fairest solution to taxpayers.

A great cause of the mess we are in relates to unsustainable global imbalances that were allowed to build up (China saving too much and the Anglo-Saxon economies borrowing too much). This has to change, obviously. Moreover, China would be taken much more seriously if they actually allowed their currency to appreciate, as such exchange rate management has self-reinforced these imbalances that I mention above.

Also, why does China keep such huge amounts of its savings in a foreign currency? Wouldn't this money be better invested on internal infrastructure and a better social security system for its citizens, in order to stimulate domestic demand, which would benefit the global economy and re-balance distorted trade flows.
  • #129,384
  • Apr 9, 2009 9:38am Apr 9, 2009 9:38am
Quoting gammase1
I disagree. I think the downside risks are too great not to intervene in the banking sector. The financial markets have grown so large and so intertwined that they are unable to correct themselves. Look at the leg lower the global economy endured after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, as an example of this theory.

I argued long ago for failing institutions to be nationalised, shareholders wiped out, and these banks be cleaned up, re-capitalised, normal lending resumed and, eventually, sold off to the private sector when the worst had passed for...
Agree with the nationalisation plan - I think that would have caused issues short term but in the long run the right thing to do - Further seems like my earlier prediction of Eur/GBP and Cable divergence being adjusted to do a cross seems to be happening right now (Check Price Overlay) - 50 pip correction. By the way also about the 1.44 figure I reckon this could be lower if you take into account problems in Scotland and Wales specifically one of major banks in Scotland failing recently. I think it should reach the lows first and then start climbing up - if things work sensibly.
  • #129,385
  • Apr 9, 2009 9:44am Apr 9, 2009 9:44am
Quoting EricB
Agree with the nationalisation plan - I think that would have caused issues short term but in the long run the right thing to do - Further seems like my earlier prediction of Eur/GBP and Cable divergence being adjusted to do a cross seems to be happening right now (Check Price Overlay) - 50 pip correction. By the way also about the 1.44 figure I reckon this could be lower if you take into account problems in Scotland and Wales specifically one of major banks in Scotland failing recently. I think it should reach the lows first and then start climbing...
The Dunfermline Building Society are tiny and do not register on the richter scale. Is that whom you refer you?

And problems in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland are always taken into account by the market when trading in sterling denominated assets.
  • #129,386
  • Apr 9, 2009 9:50am Apr 9, 2009 9:50am
Quoting gammase1
The Dunfermline Building Society are tiny and do not register on the richter scale. Is that whom you refer you?

And problems in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland are always taken into account by the market when trading in sterling denominated assets.

Yep referring to that - Might seem tiny compared to Lehman but Scotland is small as well. DBS was the largest building society in Scotland and 12th largest in UK total assetts of £3.3 billion. Now that may not seem a big figure compared to US standards but in Scottish terms and on larger scale UK terms it does mean that quite a few of the average folk in Scotland will get affected. That news getting buried is worth atleast 100 pips in my opinion. The effects are there it just was factored in and then forgotten - it needs to stay factored in.
  • #129,387
  • Apr 9, 2009 9:56am Apr 9, 2009 9:56am
Quoting micho
i think she is kissing 1.47 good bye and 1.47 is telling her okay now ride down and take care

now just one short open from 1.4875, other one at 1.4724 got stopped at BE sadly... but its my mistake shouldn't have set the BE
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #129,388
  • Apr 9, 2009 9:58am Apr 9, 2009 9:58am
Now Maybe 1.47 Once More And Then Down
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #129,389
  • Apr 9, 2009 10:03am Apr 9, 2009 10:03am
Quoting micho
Now Maybe 1.47 Once More And Then Down


God, please hear what Micho said. I'm gonna re-entry once more right at that point.
Manage your risk accordingly and you're half done your home work.
  • #129,390
  • Apr 9, 2009 10:03am Apr 9, 2009 10:03am
Quoting EricB
Yep referring to that - Might seem tiny compared to Lehman but Scotland is small as well. DBS was what largest building society in Scotland and 12th largest in UK total assetts of £3.3 billion. Now that may not seem a big figure compared to US standards but in Scottish terms and on larger scale UK terms it does mean that quite a few of the average folk in Scotland will get affected. That news getting buried is worth atleast 100 pips in my opinion. The effects are there it just was factored in and then forgotten - it needs to stay factored in.
No, it doesn't register when you compare the size of the £26m annual loss it suffered to the UK government's balance sheet. The size of this loss is nothing in today's market, and the news of the failure was rightly brushed aside by currency investors, as the ills of the major banks in the UK are already reflected in the price of sterling.

In Scottish terms? Scotland are still part of the UK and, obviously, use sterling. Why isolate the situation to Scotland? And the £3.3bn in assets need to be understood in proper context. The vast majority of these assets relate to ultra-safe loans, mortages and gilts, only a fifth were in loans advanced to the "riskier" commercial property sector, and five per cent of the total relate to sub-prime mortgages in England.

For the record, at the end of 2008, the total size of the RBS balance sheet exceeded £2,100bn, which kind of puts some context on little Dunfermline.
  • #129,391
  • Apr 9, 2009 10:04am Apr 9, 2009 10:04am
Dear Micho


NO man,,I think 1.47 game is over

Our target now is 1.4370 and Max 1.4280

Next week


Quoting micho
Now Maybe 1.47 Once More And Then Down
  • #129,392
  • Apr 9, 2009 10:07am Apr 9, 2009 10:07am
Quoting mohfaid
Dear Micho


NO man,,I think 1.47 game is over

Our target now is 1.4370 and Max 1.4280

Next week
AMEN!!!
  • #129,393
  • Apr 9, 2009 10:07am Apr 9, 2009 10:07am
Quoting micho
Now Maybe 1.47 Once More And Then Down

hmm let see what happens but i think this candle will go up because market already moved 100 points downward if you can see since morning market going up or down 100 points lol so i think this time will b up once again

Ub
  • #129,394
  • Apr 9, 2009 10:08am Apr 9, 2009 10:08am
Quoting mohfaid
Dear Micho


NO man,,I think 1.47 game is over

Our target now is 1.4370 and Max 1.4280

Next week
i also want that my 1 sell stuck since past week i want to close it if it goes down so then it will be great..

Ub
  • #129,395
  • Apr 9, 2009 10:09am Apr 9, 2009 10:09am
yeahhhh!!


Quoting kropfx
AMEN!!!
  • #129,396
  • Apr 9, 2009 10:12am Apr 9, 2009 10:12am
fresh chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gh.gif Size: 43 KB
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  • #129,397
  • Apr 9, 2009 10:14am Apr 9, 2009 10:14am
Quoting derek
fresh chart

so derek it means it could go down .wowowoww....Hello Abuawad what do you say about the current market?


Ub
  • #129,398
  • Apr 9, 2009 10:15am Apr 9, 2009 10:15am
well anything is possible... you will never know until you see candle signals. so technically if u take 1.47 short and then price goes against u, what would you do?
its better to sell above 1.4723... otherwise dont sell, just sit and wait...
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #129,399
  • Apr 9, 2009 10:15am Apr 9, 2009 10:15am
Quoting ubaidahsan
so derek it means it could go down .wowowoww....Hello Abuawad what do you say about the current market?


Ub
green lines it's nearest targets
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  • #129,400
  • Apr 9, 2009 10:16am Apr 9, 2009 10:16am
Quoting gammase1
No, it doesn't register when you compare the size of the £26m annual loss it suffered to the UK government's balance sheet. The size of this loss is nothing in today's market, and the news of the failure was rightly brushed aside by currency investors, as the ills of the major banks in the UK are already reflected in the price of sterling.

In Scottish terms? Scotland are still part of the UK and, obviously, use sterling. Why isolate the situation to Scotland? And the £3.3bn in assets need to be understood in proper context. The vast majority of...
Each to their opinion - mentioned Scotland seperately as North of England (Northern Rock) and Scotland are very sensitive to firms like DBS collapsing and has a sufficient short term and long term impact on unemployment etc - Its not just collapse of the institution that has an impact but everything else that goes hand in hand - We were at 1.38 rose to 1.42 correction after USD deppreciation - after that there hasnt been very much to warrant heading towards 1.51 just yet is all I'm saying - though in about 2 weeks time we could be there if optimistic sentiment persists - we should theoretically go down further and consolidate then start moving up.
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