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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #129,361
  • Apr 9, 2009 7:58am Apr 9, 2009 7:58am
are u in the mood..???
dont think guy's but watch welocme 1.4867 first
The Ottelo way's find the mutual system to wins
  • #129,362
  • Apr 9, 2009 7:58am Apr 9, 2009 7:58am
she ate my first short at BE
errr
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #129,363
  • Apr 9, 2009 8:00am Apr 9, 2009 8:00am
Quoting micho
dont worry my shorts are safe

one at 1.4875
and one at 1.4724 with stop loss at BE
one closed
  • #129,364
  • Apr 9, 2009 8:01am Apr 9, 2009 8:01am
I Love to informing watch the doble bottom on 4H
The Ottelo way's find the mutual system to wins
  • #129,365
  • Apr 9, 2009 8:02am Apr 9, 2009 8:02am
Quoting deboooo2005
one closed
yep, basically i should have let it run without BE but i like to take it one position at a time
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #129,366
  • Apr 9, 2009 8:02am Apr 9, 2009 8:02am
Buy above 1.4725 or Sell below 1.4704...Remember to put your Stop Loss
  • #129,367
  • Apr 9, 2009 8:04am Apr 9, 2009 8:04am
Quoting alfamichi
Buy above 1.4725 or Sell below 1.4704...Remember to put your Stop Loss
not necessary, she is acting like a bitch do you think she wants you to just grab a winning trade that easily?
they are filtering some stop losses
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #129,368
  • Apr 9, 2009 8:28am Apr 9, 2009 8:28am
Barclays has sold iShares for 4.4 billion - and hence the pound has shot up against most majors. This is just idiotic. Fed and BoE are completely impotent and traders are knee jerking - no discipline - no one has a clue of whats going on. It should still go down!I would say realistic evaulation of pound is around 1.44 region. Short term inflation doesnt mean economy is improving!
  • #129,369
  • Apr 9, 2009 8:28am Apr 9, 2009 8:28am
long above 1.4790 is safe

could it could go 1.4752 or 1.4785 and reverse but above 1.4785 is safe for long otherwise sort from those 2 points with tight SL is ok

now cable is facing resist fibo line @ 1.4726 if it break it real break
wwe can see 1.4785
  • #129,370
  • Apr 9, 2009 8:32am Apr 9, 2009 8:32am
Quoting EricB
Barclays has sold iShares for 4.4 billion - and hence the pound has shot up against most majors. This is just idiotic. Fed and BoE are completely impotent and traders are knee jerking - no discipline - no one has a clue of whats going on. It should still go down!I would say realistic evaulation of pound is around 1.44 region. Short term inflation doesnt mean economy is improving!
Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #129,371
  • Apr 9, 2009 8:40am Apr 9, 2009 8:40am
i like your "realistic" idea about pound's "real" price
  • #129,372
  • Apr 9, 2009 8:43am Apr 9, 2009 8:43am
Quoting Endrju
i like your "realistic" idea about pound's "real" price
Yep - I think pound is inflated (or overbought) 1M Bollinger says the same but its pretty useless measure.
  • #129,373
  • Apr 9, 2009 8:48am Apr 9, 2009 8:48am
Quoting EricB
Barclays has sold iShares for 4.4 billion - and hence the pound has shot up against most majors. This is just idiotic. Fed and BoE are completely impotent and traders are knee jerking - no discipline - no one has a clue of whats going on. It should still go down!I would say realistic evaulation of pound is around 1.44 region. Short term inflation doesnt mean economy is improving!
What method of calculation or model are you using to reach 1.44?

Also supporting sterling (a bigger factor than Barc's sale of iShares) is the very positive news coming from Wells Fargo. As we all know, sterling has a very strong correlation with the fianancial sector and risk appetite in general. Upon news of the better than expected results from Wells being released to the market, shares in UK banks surged in support.
  • #129,374
  • Apr 9, 2009 8:56am Apr 9, 2009 8:56am
Quoting gammase1
what method of calculation or model are you using to reach 1.44?

Also supporting sterling (a bigger factor than Barc's sale of iShares) is the very positive news coming from Wells Fargo. As we all know, sterling has a very strong correlation with the fianancial sector and risk appetite in general. Upon news of the better than expected results from Wells being released to the market, shares in UK banks surged in support.
Just a note on WF their official earnings report is not due until after easter - its rather suspicuous that they would leak a rumour that their earnings are that high at this point in time. BoA and Citigroup havent - and their earnings reports are due before WF. As for 1.44 is my largely speculative number based on rough calculations when I have seen larger then due pip increases on news items like PPI input increasing by 0.1% - which doesnt add up because though theoretically increase points towards inflation hard pressed supplier usually try and increase prices as demand shortens to keep turnover ticking - however this isnt taken into account in micro-economics. Hence I think pound is overbought. Another theory on why its oversold is if you do a EUR/USD price overlay you will see the divergence with Barclays news being released. At some point in time the Eur/USD and cable usually cross over. Now its unlikely that Eur is going to appreciate any further with 11:00 news about possible interest rate cuts - so the likelihood is GBP moving down by about 50 or pips.
  • #129,375
  • Apr 9, 2009 8:56am Apr 9, 2009 8:56am
So were closed as of tonight for the next 3 days?
  • #129,376
  • Apr 9, 2009 9:02am Apr 9, 2009 9:02am
Quoting EricB
Just a note on WF their official earnings report is not due until after easter - its rather suspicuous that they would leak a rumour that their earnings are that high at this point in time. BoA and Citigroup havent - and their earnings reports are due before WF. As for 1.44 is my largely speculative number based on rough calculations when I have seen larger then due pip increases on news items like PPI input increasing by 0.1% - which doesnt add up because though theoretically increase points towards inflation hard pressed supplier usually try and...
So you think the pound is oversold, but at the same time believe fair price of cable should be 1.44, much lower than where it now stands?

BoA and Citi have both come out in recent weeks saying their results will beat expectations, as have JP Morgan. Also benefiting banks, are the rumours that all 19 US banks are expected to pass government stress tests.
  • #129,377
  • Apr 9, 2009 9:04am Apr 9, 2009 9:04am
Quoting gammase1
So you think the pound is oversold, but at the same time believe fair price of cable should be 1.44, much lower than where it now stands?

BoA and Citi have both come out in recent weeks saying their results will beat expectations, as have JP Morgan. Also benefiting banks, are the rumours that all 19 banks are expected to pass government stress tests.

Sorry overbought!!!! Im going crazy with this market!
  • #129,378
  • Apr 9, 2009 9:08am Apr 9, 2009 9:08am
Quoting EricB
Im going crazy with this market!
I know that feeling!
  • #129,379
  • Apr 9, 2009 9:08am Apr 9, 2009 9:08am
Quoting gammase1
So you think the pound is oversold, but at the same time believe fair price of cable should be 1.44, much lower than where it now stands?

BoA and Citi have both come out in recent weeks saying their results will beat expectations, as have JP Morgan. Also benefiting banks, are the rumours that all 19 US banks are expected to pass government stress tests.
With 1 Trillion at hand and flexible accounting what company wouldnt pass a stress test and demonstrate they are doing better then they really are. This is all about investor confidence - They want the investors sitting on the sidelines to come back in the market - Bernanke did his thesis on the Great Depression of 1935 - he thinks the only solution is printing money and avoiding people hoarding monies in cash.
  • #129,380
  • Apr 9, 2009 9:12am Apr 9, 2009 9:12am
Quoting EricB
With 1 Trillion at hand and flexible accounting what company wouldnt pass a stress test and demonstrate they are doing better then they really are. This is all about investor confidence - They want the investors sitting on the sidelines to come back in the market - Bernanke did his thesis on the Great Depression of 1935 - he thinks the only solution is printing money and avoiding people hoarding monies in cash.
I am not arguing that the current market optimism towards the banking sector is justified. Indeed, I take the opposing view, as I have done for a long time now, often on this forum.

However, this positive sentiment is the reality we face today, and it is real. Furthermore, it may take quite some time for the harsh reality of the situation to shatter the investors' misguided perceptions. Alternatively, my negative belief that a great portion of the banking sector are insolvent may turn out to be overdone. Time will tell.
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