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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #129,261
  • Apr 8, 2009 9:03am Apr 8, 2009 9:03am
With the Dow up 45 "ish"...

She ain't gonna drop like a rock,
and for sure, only up 45 she sure the heck,
ain't gonna climb like King Kong!

Man, 'wanted to trade, too... but nope,
Nada, -No-way!

Great hearing from you brother, hope all's well,
Signing off here,
Have a great one, will check in later,

Jeff !
I will work to Objectively Identify my Edges
  • #129,262
  • Apr 8, 2009 9:04am Apr 8, 2009 9:04am
So Micho

what is next man
down,,,up ?

Quoting micho
THIS IS A SONG FOR LITTLE KIDS

HEHE
  • #129,263
  • Apr 8, 2009 9:09am Apr 8, 2009 9:09am
Mohfaid,

Sorry to but in here for MichO,
I'll let his advice stand... but i'd say buddy,

"Sit on your hands,
do not punch the buy or sell unless you really
see an edge you can play". -And it's gotta be
good.

If you like looking at paint dry or painting w/a roller,
up and down up and down well, there you go...
Best of luck either way buddy.
I'd spend quality time w/the wife, family or kids if
you have 'em.
Have a great one,

Jeff !
I will work to Objectively Identify my Edges
  • #129,264
  • Apr 8, 2009 9:10am Apr 8, 2009 9:10am
Quoting mohfaid
So Micho

what is next man
down,,,up ?
I THINK ITS NOT GOOD FOR TRADING NOW
WAIT FOR A MOVE MAYBE TOMORROW OR LATER CAUSE ITS SO CHOPPY
I THINK WE EITHER GO TO 1.4754 OR WE GO BACK TO 1.4626 OR BOTH
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #129,265
  • Apr 8, 2009 9:13am Apr 8, 2009 9:13am
Dear

I am already on short position,,,I am a long term trader,,,and my taregt was a retest of 1.35 area again

Let us see,,,I think I will go out on a break of 1.4775 area

Quoting micho
I THINK ITS NOT GOOD FOR TRADING NOW
WAIT FOR A MOVE MAYBE TOMORROW OR LATER CAUSE ITS SO CHOPPY
I THINK WE EITHER GO TO 1.4754 OR WE GO BACK TO 1.4626 OR BOTH
  • #129,266
  • Apr 8, 2009 9:14am Apr 8, 2009 9:14am
on a very small timescale should go down to 1.465 H&S - longer duration large traders like BNP Paribas have put buy signals at 1.463 - but I think hang tight they are in the process of changing minds or should be changing minds as this should fundamentally head down.
  • #129,267
  • Apr 8, 2009 9:16am Apr 8, 2009 9:16am
Cool,

Good for you then (Long Term Trade)...
Great Job!
I will work to Objectively Identify my Edges
  • #129,268
  • Edited 9:31am Apr 8, 2009 9:19am | Edited 9:31am
Quoting mohfaid
Dear

I am already on short position,,,I am a long term trader,,,and my taregt was a retest of 1.35 area again

Let us see,,,I think I will go out on a break of 1.4775 area

I think 1.35 might be unrealistic as things have shifted dramatically unless a bigger then expected QE measure by BoE - I would put a more realistic figure as 1.44x before buy signal is triggered. But you are right it should go down and maximum could be retest of 1.415 support.

Further M King is quite comfrotable for pound to be at 1.38-1.40 levels as the ideal level to stimulate economy (the only exception being the food price inflation)
  • #129,269
  • Apr 8, 2009 9:36am Apr 8, 2009 9:36am
Quoting mohfaid
Dear

I am already on short position,,,I am a long term trader,,,and my taregt was a retest of 1.35 area again

Let us see,,,I think I will go out on a break of 1.4775 area
Be careful today because of FOMC meeting minutes last time market shoot up but now let see what happens after 2 hours

Ub
  • #129,270
  • Apr 8, 2009 9:42am Apr 8, 2009 9:42am
Quoting ubaidahsan
Be careful today because of FOMC meeting minutes last time market shoot up but now let see what happens after 2 hours

Ub
Last time Helicopter Ben Bernanke bazouked and shot money out of his helicopter - immediate reaction China/Russia sent warning about USD and wanting to set SDR as worlds currency - China/Russia are poised to use the current economic crisis to reposition themselves at centre of stage - If bernanke prints anymore money he will be playing in their hands as if major dollar sale happens it means complete economic collapse for the US. He needs to consider inflation and threat to dollar as worlds reserve currency - I reckon they will probably try and mitigate some of the damage they did last time as they werent expecting the reaction they got.
  • #129,271
  • Apr 8, 2009 9:50am Apr 8, 2009 9:50am
Quoting EricB
Last time Helicopter Ben Bernanke bazouked and shot money out of his helicopter - immediate reaction China/Russia sent warning about USD and wanting to set SDR as worlds currency - China/Russia are poised to use the current economic crisis to reposition themselves at centre of stage - If bernanke prints anymore money he will be playing in their hands as if major dollar sale happens it means complete economic collapse for the US. He needs to consider inflation and threat to dollar as worlds reserve currency - I reckon they will probably try and mitigate...
You mean this time it can be in favor of USD?

Ub
  • #129,272
  • Apr 8, 2009 9:55am Apr 8, 2009 9:55am
Quoting ubaidahsan
You mean this time it can be in favor of USD?

Ub
Yes - I think they are going to talk about how they are going to reduce their balance sheet when the time is right - they havent talked enough about that and they need to send a clear signal that they are serious about it - otherwise no one is going to take on their treasuries. Longer term bias should be appreciating the dollar so that big investors in treasuries like China dont start selling them thinking Fed has no plan. The correction in USD with statements like that will be nowhere close to the affect of $300 billion they said they will print last time - however it should result in greater trust in USD as a world currency and if risk aversion prevails USD will appreciate.
  • #129,273
  • Apr 8, 2009 10:05am Apr 8, 2009 10:05am
Quoting EricB
Yes - I think they are going to talk about how they are going to reduce their balance sheet when the time is right - they havent talked enough about that and they need to send a clear signal that they are serious about it - otherwise no one is going to take on their treasuries. Longer term bias should be appreciating the dollar so that big investors in treasuries like China dont start selling them thinking Fed has no plan. The correction in...
thanks i was expecting up again was ready for it but now will be careful

Ub
  • #129,274
  • Apr 8, 2009 10:08am Apr 8, 2009 10:08am
Quoting ubaidahsan
thanks i was expecting up again was ready for it but now will be careful

Ub
No problem - remember no investor like China wants to invest in a company (if you thinkof US as a business) which deliberately wants to write down its own assets (USD) thereby reducing their clients investment value. Russia also has one of the largest USD foreign currency reserve.
  • #129,275
  • Apr 8, 2009 10:17am Apr 8, 2009 10:17am
The GBPUSD short term intraday pattern is confirming the larger bearish pattern that calls for a drop down to 1.40 as part of a traingle in the week(s) ahead. The wave pattern suggests that the reaction to the Fed minutes will most likely be dollar positive (GBPUSD negative). A short term bearish target is 1.45. 1.4775 should remain intact.

from dailyfx. not me
  • #129,276
  • Apr 8, 2009 10:29am Apr 8, 2009 10:29am
I still favor the down side short term.

Here's my analysis for now, very simple.

We sold off and retraced 50%. Double topped there (blue arrows) and found support at the weekly pivot and a prior level identified by the white box (very easy for you to find yourself on a 4-hour chart looking left).

Off the 50% we made another touch of the weekly pivot and subsequently a lower high compared to the double top at 50%. There is also a double bottom on the weekly pivot (red arrows). Looks like a wedge is forming and a break is favored in the direction of the trend, which for now is down.

We can play both directions...wait for a break either way and then a retest of the wedge or a pullback to enter.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp h1.gif Size: 39 KB
  • #129,277
  • Apr 8, 2009 10:31am Apr 8, 2009 10:31am
I`m riding up... Just taking a chance though...
  • #129,278
  • Apr 8, 2009 10:47am Apr 8, 2009 10:47am
13 minutes left then market condition will be change start count down

Ub
  • #129,279
  • Apr 8, 2009 11:09am Apr 8, 2009 11:09am
what is next now ??

Ub
  • #129,280
  • Apr 8, 2009 11:09am Apr 8, 2009 11:09am
Quoting ubaidahsan
13 minutes left then market condition will be change start count down

Ub

Well, that was that.... Not much reaction. Let's wait for what the rest of the afternoon/night brings.... next wild card is the BOE rate decision in about 16 hours...
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