Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Just saw a comment that Bloomberg issued a poll stating only 30% chance of a hike tomorrow, that is probably the level or pricing at this point...

That put, a hike tomorrow will certainly inspire new highs and, in this case, I don't see why not 99s....

A no hike will inspire a selloff soon to be contained, as expectations of hike in May get back into play...

I think it is going to be a very quiet Asian session for Gbp/Usd & Eur/usd until BOE announcement.

Hey de123...

Are we hitting page 666 at Good Friday's eve? Considering closing all trades and get back after Easter only...

Scary

I don't like how 1.9730 hold.
Since the beginning of this week 1.9730 hold strong. Means, it will be a lot of buyers here. but means too if it's break, Bears will come in the room.
Any ideas ?

Henrycarol (1.9710 - 9720) has become a bull (support)?

The trade today is 11:01 GMT / TP 150+ / "Trailing stop 5 pips", whatever the direction.

No point in finding techis right now...

Here's what Analysts say in UBS :
The only economic statistics releases of any note today are in the UK, although the main focus of attention will be the Bank of England's interest rate decision. After the strong PMI data at the beginning of this week, we expect a further 25 basis point hike - although this could trigger fresh carry trades. The labor market report for March is out in the US on Friday, and we expect more or less the same number of new jobs as in February. However, the previous months' figures may be revised.

The focus today will be primarily on the UK; there will be no economic statistics
releases of any note in the rest of Europe or the US. Two UK industry
indicators for February are due out, but most of the attention will be on the
Bank of England's interest rate decision. We expect another 25 basis point
hike to 5.5%, although the market thinks the BoE will wait until May before
raising rates. The dilemma facing the BoE is that inflation is still well above
its target, but interest rates are already high and the GBP is very strong. A
further rate hike could trigger fresh carry trades, with investors borrowing in
low-yielding currencies like the CHF and JYP to buy into the higher yield
offered by the GBP. That could lead to further GBP appreciation. Most markets across Europe are closed on Friday. New York's stock markets will also
be closed, but government agencies, including the statistics bureaus, will be
open, so labor data for March will be published. We expect 100,000 jobs to
have been added to payrolls, after 97,000 in February. Our forecast is lower
than the market consensus estimate of 133,000, but it is possible that we
will see a sharp correction in the previous months' figures, following the recent
pattern of revisions.

Market trades the revision. That's why I'll be doing something else at this dreaded piece of news...

Last month, previous figure was revised 30%.

Last month was a joke. Cable moved rangebound in less than 50 pips after the news. Hoping for real volatility tomorrow.

05:57Whatever the BOE does, expect some high volatility in the GBP after the decision

that ... for sure.
fasten your seat belt. manage your SL.

Wed, Apr 4 2007, 14:04 GMT

From AFXNews

LONDON (AFX) - The Bank of England is still expected to keep its key repo rate unchanged at the near six-year high of 5.25 pct when it concludes its latest rate-setting meeting tomorrow, even though this week's surveys into the manufacturing and services sectors found pricing components at elevated levels.

None of the 32 economists polled by AFX News, conducted after today's services sector purchasing managers' index, have changed their call that the Monetary Policy Committee will keep rates unchanged, even though the average prices charged sub-index jumped to a seven-month high of 55.3 in March from 54.2 in February. Only eight of the 32 economists polled think there will be a hike.

The minutes to the last meeting on March 8 reinforced expectations that the MPC will want to wait until May, an Inflation Report month, before triggering another increase. The 8-1 vote in favour of keeping rates unchanged, with arch-dove David Blanchflower voting for a cut, means there will have to be a big swing to deliver an increase.

"While Andrew Sentance and Timothy Besley may well revert to voting for higher interest rates, we believe that most of the other MPC members will be prepared to hold fire for a little longer while they further gauge what impact the three interest rate hikes enacted since last August are having on the economy," said Howard Archer, chief UK economist at Global Insight.

"We forecast that 5.50 pct will mark the peak in interest rates as growth loses a little momentum over the coming months and inflation heads back down, and we also suspect that companies will find it difficult to make major price increases stick," he added.

Others though reckon that there's enough evidence for the MPC to pull the trigger tomorrow.

George Buckley, economist at Deutsche Bank, thinks a hike can be justified by higher inflation measures across the board, generally upbeat activity since the January rate rise, the continued strength in the euro area economy, robust domestic demand, high money supply growth and rising household borrowing.

He said the main risks to this view are weaker household income growth, including only a moderate increase in wage settlements, the impact of higher rates and debt levels on consumption going forward and the PMIs moving broadly sideways.

"Suffice to say this looks likely to be a difficult decision for the committee and we would not be surprised to see a three-way split when the minutes are published," he added.



FORECASTER APRIL END-2007

4CAST 5.50 5.50

ABN Amro 5.25 5.75

Bank of America 5.25 5.50

Bank of New York 5.25 5.25

Barclays Capital 5.50 5.50

Bear Stearns 5.50 5.50

BNP Paribas 5.25 5.25

Calyon 5.50 5.50

Capital Economics 5.25 5.50

CEBR 5.50 5.50

CIBC World Markets 5.25 5.00

Commerzbank 5.25 5.25

Credit Suisse 5.25 5.50

Daiwa 5.25 5.50

Deutsche Bank 5.50 5.50

Dresdner Kleinwort 5.25 5.25

Global Insight 5.25 5.50

HBOS 5.25 5.50

HSBC 5.25 5.25

Insinger de Beaufort 5.25 5.00

Investec Securities 5.25 5.50

JP Morgan Chase 5.25 5.50

Lehman Brothers 5.50 5.50

Lloyds TSB 5.25 5.50

Lombard Street Research 5.25 5.50

Merrill Lynch 5.50 5.50

Morley Fund Management 5.25 5.50

Nationwide 5.25 5.50

Rabobank 5.25 5.50

Royal Bank of Scotland 5.25 5.50

Standard Chartered 5.25 5.50

UBS 5.25 5.25

looks a bit bearish right now.

UK data earlier were not too good for cable.

no correlation concerning the hike or not....

DJ MARKET TALK: Where Downside Risk In Cable Is - Commerzbank

Thu Apr 05 06:43:49 2007
EDT

1043 GMT [Dow Jones] Cable is slipping just ahead of the BoE's rate decision
and it's probably worth looking at where the downside risk is. Commerzbank's
Andy Hart says while above channel support is at 1.9650 there's scope for a
move to the top of the 4-month trading range at 1.9850 and 1.9915, where
failure is likely. However, loss of 1.9650 would be the first indication the
rate is losing upside momentum in the range and could lead to a test of key
supports at 1.9550 and 1.9485. Now at 1.9728.

BoE statement in 10 mins, good luck to everyone!

Good Trades ...

The Cat is going busy now...

Thanks.

Henry Carol's In The House!!!!!!