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  • #80,921
  • Mar 29, 2009 12:40pm Mar 29, 2009 12:40pm
Quoting F.x.
What about the huge W on the daily?
unrealistic to me, a w that call 5000 for pips its something else. im maybe missing something, but that beyond my trading style.it may play out who knows? im interested in the most recent trend and price action.
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
  • #80,922
  • Edited 12:43pm Mar 29, 2009 12:41pm | Edited 12:43pm
Quoting trading801
there shouldnt be any crazy gap unless there is big news.. usually it is like this
What is the difference b/w a Gap and a Week-end Gap? Why the space between where we are now and 1.3074 does not qualify for a Gap?(on daily chart). Sorry for my ignorance.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #80,923
  • Mar 29, 2009 12:41pm Mar 29, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting trading801
there shouldnt be any crazy gap unless there is big news.. usually it is like this
Big enough for ya?

http://i42.tinypic.com/2yzd7c5.jpg
Not all sins are created equal
  • #80,924
  • Mar 29, 2009 12:43pm Mar 29, 2009 12:43pm
The monthlies are just forming a shoulder with too many tops like pin points, suggesting a strong resistance in the 1.35-1.48 band... If the pair succeeds breaking 1.3094 support, we may see 1.1111 in the far future... who knows...
  • #80,925
  • Mar 29, 2009 12:54pm Mar 29, 2009 12:54pm
Quoting F.x.
What about the huge W on the daily?
I think this is key. If you are only looking at the 4H TF and not seeing the W on the Daily TF then you are going to miss the long term trend which in fact will be up this week according to that thesis. I don't know if it will GAP up or down today but either way you should be paying attention to the possible upwards movement on the Daily TF retracement it is almost identical to the downward side of this U shape. The larger time frames are key to seeing the bigger picture and to keep you from getting trapped in losing positions.
  • #80,926
  • Mar 29, 2009 1:08pm Mar 29, 2009 1:08pm
Trichet is speaking tomorrow at 10:30 AM EDT, that could be the movement trigger if nothing before then...Cheers!
  • #80,927
  • Mar 29, 2009 1:09pm Mar 29, 2009 1:09pm
Quoting bradorboy
Trichet is speaking tomorrow at 10:30 AM EDT, that could be the movement trigger if nothing before then...Cheers!
And, the direction...?
  • #80,928
  • Mar 29, 2009 1:15pm Mar 29, 2009 1:15pm
Quoting bradorboy
Trichet is speaking tomorrow at 10:30 AM EDT, that could be the movement trigger if nothing before then...Cheers!
Where at ADB?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #80,929
  • Mar 29, 2009 1:21pm Mar 29, 2009 1:21pm
Quoting Jay Walker
Big enough for ya?

http://i42.tinypic.com/2yzd7c5.jpg
yea , and i did pay a lot for this bitch cluelessness (or mine about him) last week.
  • #80,930
  • Mar 29, 2009 1:21pm Mar 29, 2009 1:21pm
Quoting F.x.
What about the huge W on the daily?
Please can you clarify where is the bottom and neck line for daily W you mentioned?

If it is the one with neck line at 4718 (Dec 18 high), I do not think the W formation is complete to enter a trade based on it.
  • #80,931
  • Mar 29, 2009 1:22pm Mar 29, 2009 1:22pm
Quoting zapper
And, the direction...?
Zapper, I have it going up this week maybe through to next retracing to the 1.4000 area...any thoughts?
  • #80,932
  • Mar 29, 2009 1:29pm Mar 29, 2009 1:29pm
Quoting hytham
Please can you clarify where is the bottom and neck line for daily W you mentioned?

If it is the one with neck line at 4718 (Dec 18 high), I do not think the W formation is complete to enter a trade based on it.
That's the current debate. Will it soon regain bullish momentum to complete the W? Or will it continue to fall and form a pennant on the daily?

I expect we'll stay between 1.325 and 1.373 channel lines. But if we drop below the 1.325 from friday, then the case for a W gets smaller and smaller, which means expect fast drops.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #80,933
  • Mar 29, 2009 1:33pm Mar 29, 2009 1:33pm
Here’s my take on what I ‘see.’ I will say that I DO NOT trade unless my system gives me permission to do so. I don’t think (dangerous for me), guess (I’m a shitty guesser), hope (never worked in the past), pray (works sometimes, but NEVER in forex) or depend on others calls (just plain stupid).
The most pressing issue I see right now (in the shorter term) is there has yet to be a serious attempt at a 23.6% retrace from the drop last Friday. My fibs are drawn from 1.3592 to 1.3256. Depending on your charting broker (mine is Alpari) we are 5 candles away from the bottom (working off the 1 hour) and consolidating tightening up the BB’s. Some could argue of a bull flag here (there was argument of a bull flag on top before this 300 pip down move; so, I’m not putting much weight on this pattern now (or any pattern on e/u for that matter).
I have a little more faith in the trend lines right now (and as you can see Fibs). We blew through my lower t/l Friday on the 1 hour and hit a downward sloping t/l that parallels my previous support t/l. See chart below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart 6.gif Size: 55 KB


Another looming and I believe important figure here is the 61.8% fib line, which has yet to be touched, but looks like it will. I have that line on all my charts from weekly on down to 1 min.
My personal bias(remember this required thinking and I hedged myself above) on PA tends to lean towards additional downward movement. This is predicated upon what I see on the 5m, 15m, 30m and daily charts. My 1hr and 4 hr need to ‘reload’ or ‘recycle’ some for that trend to continue.
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #80,934
  • Mar 29, 2009 1:46pm Mar 29, 2009 1:46pm
All this gap talk is ho hum ............ like watching World Cup qualifying games.

3 matches with "scores" of 0-0, 0-0, 1-1

send them all home I say.
  • #80,935
  • Mar 29, 2009 1:47pm Mar 29, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting F.x.
That's the current debate. Will it soon regain bullish momentum to complete the W? Or will it continue to fall and form a pennant on the daily?

I expect we'll stay between 1.325 and 1.373 channel lines. But if we drop below the 1.325 from friday, then the case for a W gets smaller and smaller, which means expect fast drops.
Thank you for clarification, and this is the way I see it:
There are 2 sides for the next movement:

1. Eur/Usd is in an uptrend channel since the beginning of this month which is still unbroken even though of the retracement since March 20. If it continues it will complete the W formation.

2. On the other hand, Eur/Usd have resis at 3736 (38% Fib from high at 1.6 to Nov low). After this point upward, 200 Day Average line is at 3809 and major resist at 1.4 (downtrend line) still will have to be taken before W formation.

I am considering both scenarios for my orders.
  • #80,936
  • Mar 29, 2009 1:51pm Mar 29, 2009 1:51pm
I have pointed out the the 2 times (on attached chart) we recently hit this resistance level and if you read the chart in reverse and apply that theory to the current movement then you could confidently say we are heading back up. I will add that nothing is ever 100% in Forex or we would all be reitred by now so set your stops as you always should and see if your educated theories come true. I, myself like where the chart is pointing in the way I interpret it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_daily.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #80,937
  • Mar 29, 2009 1:53pm Mar 29, 2009 1:53pm
Just opened long and short.

Side note - I used SL's last week for the first time in a long time and it went well (aside from a few obvious SL hunts on lower timeframes.) So I'll be using SL's again this week for peace of mind in these crazy days as well as an extra guarantee for proper MM.
  • #80,938
  • Mar 29, 2009 2:03pm Mar 29, 2009 2:03pm
Quoting hytham
Thank you for clarification, and this is the way I see it:
There are 2 sides for the next movement:

1. Eur/Usd is in an uptrend channel since the beginning of this month which is still unbroken even though of the retracement since March 20. If it continues it will complete the W formation.

[color=black]2. On the other hand, Eur/Usd have resis at 3736 (38% Fib from high at 1.6 to Nov low). After this point upward, 200 Day Average line is at 3809 and major resist at 1.4 (downtrend...

I don't like to guess which direction price will go. As you can see I've already opened a long and a short position. I'll ride out the trend as long as possible while playing bounces for the negative position.
  • #80,939
  • Mar 29, 2009 2:09pm Mar 29, 2009 2:09pm
Well, I already closed my short for pips lol. Added some longs.
  • #80,940
  • Edited 2:20pm Mar 29, 2009 2:09pm | Edited 2:20pm
Nice one, B2L!!

Shorts will keep their reigning!!

1.3233 now, this will drop, people!!

Edit: My last Short entries some hours ago, after my crystal ball told me to short before open!!
I have advised people to short last Friday and keep it!
congratulations to all who followed me!
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