"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
- #80,922
- Edited 12:43pm Mar 29, 2009 12:41pm | Edited 12:43pm
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
The Thief of Wall Street
- #80,923
- Mar 29, 2009 12:41pm Mar 29, 2009 12:41pm
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: HEY! WHA' HAPPENED? | 15,496 Posts
there shouldnt be any crazy gap unless there is big news.. usually it is like this
http://i42.tinypic.com/2yzd7c5.jpg
Not all sins are created equal
- #80,928
- Mar 29, 2009 1:15pm Mar 29, 2009 1:15pm
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Married - 5 Wives | 14,713 Posts
The Thief of Wall Street
- #80,929
- Mar 29, 2009 1:21pm Mar 29, 2009 1:21pm
- #80,930
- Mar 29, 2009 1:21pm Mar 29, 2009 1:21pm
What about the huge W on the daily?
If it is the one with neck line at 4718 (Dec 18 high), I do not think the W formation is complete to enter a trade based on it.
- #80,932
- Mar 29, 2009 1:29pm Mar 29, 2009 1:29pm
- | Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Madness has no method. | 1,143 Posts
Please can you clarify where is the bottom and neck line for daily W you mentioned?
If it is the one with neck line at 4718 (Dec 18 high), I do not think the W formation is complete to enter a trade based on it.
I expect we'll stay between 1.325 and 1.373 channel lines. But if we drop below the 1.325 from friday, then the case for a W gets smaller and smaller, which means expect fast drops.
- #80,933
- Mar 29, 2009 1:33pm Mar 29, 2009 1:33pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Pip Seer | 1,299 Posts
Here’s my take on what I ‘see.’ I will say that I DO NOT trade unless my system gives me permission to do so. I don’t think (dangerous for me), guess (I’m a shitty guesser), hope (never worked in the past), pray (works sometimes, but NEVER in forex) or depend on others calls (just plain stupid).
The most pressing issue I see right now (in the shorter term) is there has yet to be a serious attempt at a 23.6% retrace from the drop last Friday. My fibs are drawn from 1.3592 to 1.3256. Depending on your charting broker (mine is Alpari) we are 5 candles away from the bottom (working off the 1 hour) and consolidating tightening up the BB’s. Some could argue of a bull flag here (there was argument of a bull flag on top before this 300 pip down move; so, I’m not putting much weight on this pattern now (or any pattern on e/u for that matter).
I have a little more faith in the trend lines right now (and as you can see Fibs). We blew through my lower t/l Friday on the 1 hour and hit a downward sloping t/l that parallels my previous support t/l. See chart below.
Another looming and I believe important figure here is the 61.8% fib line, which has yet to be touched, but looks like it will. I have that line on all my charts from weekly on down to 1 min.
My personal bias(remember this required thinking and I hedged myself above) on PA tends to lean towards additional downward movement. This is predicated upon what I see on the 5m, 15m, 30m and daily charts. My 1hr and 4 hr need to ‘reload’ or ‘recycle’ some for that trend to continue.
The most pressing issue I see right now (in the shorter term) is there has yet to be a serious attempt at a 23.6% retrace from the drop last Friday. My fibs are drawn from 1.3592 to 1.3256. Depending on your charting broker (mine is Alpari) we are 5 candles away from the bottom (working off the 1 hour) and consolidating tightening up the BB’s. Some could argue of a bull flag here (there was argument of a bull flag on top before this 300 pip down move; so, I’m not putting much weight on this pattern now (or any pattern on e/u for that matter).
I have a little more faith in the trend lines right now (and as you can see Fibs). We blew through my lower t/l Friday on the 1 hour and hit a downward sloping t/l that parallels my previous support t/l. See chart below.
Another looming and I believe important figure here is the 61.8% fib line, which has yet to be touched, but looks like it will. I have that line on all my charts from weekly on down to 1 min.
My personal bias(remember this required thinking and I hedged myself above) on PA tends to lean towards additional downward movement. This is predicated upon what I see on the 5m, 15m, 30m and daily charts. My 1hr and 4 hr need to ‘reload’ or ‘recycle’ some for that trend to continue.
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
- #80,934
- Mar 29, 2009 1:46pm Mar 29, 2009 1:46pm
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts
- #80,937
- Mar 29, 2009 1:53pm Mar 29, 2009 1:53pm
- | Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Madness has no method. | 1,143 Posts
- #80,938
- Mar 29, 2009 2:03pm Mar 29, 2009 2:03pm
- | Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Madness has no method. | 1,143 Posts
- #80,939
- Mar 29, 2009 2:09pm Mar 29, 2009 2:09pm
- | Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Madness has no method. | 1,143 Posts
- #80,940
- Edited 2:20pm Mar 29, 2009 2:09pm | Edited 2:20pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,303 Posts
