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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #128,021
  • Edited 12:40pm Mar 25, 2009 12:37pm | Edited 12:40pm
Agreed - I'm generally looking at stuff to run several hours and only trading in the direction of the trend on the daily chart.

This concept of a free trade/locking in profit etc. is the heart of what I'm thinking about, I guess. Why is the fact you've just had a profitable short (say at $n/pip), a reason to add to it rather than just leave it open?

If you had been out of the market at the time, would you have gone straight in at $2n/pip?

It seems to me that I should be deciding how much I want on at any given point in time, irrespective of what has gone before (in terms of P/L on my own previous trades, obviously not in terms of price history). This has to be attenuated in some way based on transaction cost, clearly - can't be paying the spread over and over again to keep tweaking with bet sizes.

I'm thinking along the lines of having a range of bet sizes (say $n/pip through to $4n/pip), representing levels of confidence that the next move in my target timeframe will be in the direction I expect. Do you also factor in how far back your SL will be (if that varies, it does for me) in determining bet size?
  • #128,022
  • Mar 25, 2009 12:49pm Mar 25, 2009 12:49pm
Quoting SeaPip
Hey KIDDO, can you just shut up and learn for once????
Thanks, SeaPip, I'll certainly give your suggestion some thought.

Quote
I am not bragging
Around this point in the sentence I find myself wondering what the next word will be...

Quote
but
Well, what a shocker.

Quote
I have to say I trade multiple mini lots and sometime multiple standard lot
You don't have to say anything of the kind - there's no information value in it. There's a billionaire called Andy Beal. Loves to play poker; he's good but not brilliant at it. He plays for "nosebleed" stakes, because playing for a few bucks wouldn't mean anything to him. The point is, he didn't become a billionaire by playing poker, so the stakes at which he plays tell us nothing at all about his poker playing ability.

However, it's good that you have seen fit to share that information, since it ties in with the discussion about bet sizing. You're saying your bet size varies by as much as a factor of 10? Is that based on confidence in any given trade, or timeframe, or what? It seems a very wide range to me.
  • #128,023
  • Mar 25, 2009 12:54pm Mar 25, 2009 12:54pm
Quoting thetroll
Agreed - I'm generally looking at stuff to run several hours and only trading in the direction of the trend on the daily chart.

This concept of a free trade/locking in profit etc. is the heart of what I'm thinking about, I guess. Why is the fact you've just had a profitable short (say at $n/pip), a reason to add to it rather than just leave it open?

If you had been out of the market at the time, would you have gone straight in at $2n/pip?

It seems to me that I should be deciding how much I want on at any given point in time, irrespective...
lot size will always depend ON money management only

not if a trade is good or bad, a seasoned trader, a good trader will almost always trade the same lot size but never higher....smaller yes but never beyond the R/R set in the mm rules higher.......determine your Risk factor and from there determne your MM rules and stick to them

stick to them

as we have seen without MM rules you are only gambling in the most dangerous market on the planet.

for a personal account 3 to 5% max, for a managed account 1 to 3% max, thats just a suggestion as I am a cheap SOB and hate to give back anything, DD over 7% is to me totally out of line and you better get a better system or a day job.

MOST people have no MM rules and that is sad, its also the reason why brokers drive new cars
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #128,024
  • Mar 25, 2009 12:57pm Mar 25, 2009 12:57pm
Quoting thetroll
Communication difficulties again, I guess. I'm sure your English will get better over time. The important thing is to try to take opportunities to learn from your mistakes, just as in trading. For example, here you should say "no comment". Now, if you remember that for next time, you'll have become better at English - easy!

Also, try to avoid frequently using font sizes for emphasis on forums. It doesn't project the authoritative image you think it does, I assure you.

The dude has a 1k status and you don't have shit! So can you please stop being an asshole or maybe that is just your occupation because you damn sure havent posted anything useful to the forex traders of this community.
  • #128,025
  • Mar 25, 2009 1:04pm Mar 25, 2009 1:04pm
Quoting Tmac
can I make a freindly suggestion here?

start your own thread on this subject, people will follow and the bashers will leave you alone

then you can say what you want and nobody will say anything to you

you can solicit all the clients for your managed acounts and nobody will say anything about that either

one more suggestion also

give everyone that does approach you an investor password to prove you can live trade and much of this will stop.

passwords can be changed easy enough

good luck in your adventure
i don't mind at all with that, but haw i can give anyone a password for just reviewing. this option is not avilable in FXCM as far as i know.
if you know any other system have it. i can open demo account just for that reason.
  • #128,026
  • Mar 25, 2009 1:05pm Mar 25, 2009 1:05pm
i love this threat
  • #128,027
  • Mar 25, 2009 1:19pm Mar 25, 2009 1:19pm
Quoting Abuawad
i don't mind at all with that, but haw i can give anyone a password for just reviewing. this option is not avilable in FXCM as far as i know.
if you know any other system have it. i can open demo account just for that reason.
call your broker and ask them about an investor password to your account

this way you can let others "see" for themselves before investing

your own thread is the only way this will end and if you are good enough then they will follow you
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #128,028
  • Mar 25, 2009 1:21pm Mar 25, 2009 1:21pm
Quoting Tmac
lot size will always depend ON money management only

not if a trade is good or bad, a seasoned trader, a good trader will almost always trade the same lot size but never higher...........determine you Risk factor and from there determne your MM rules and stick to them

stick to them
Agreed, though discipline is a slightly different topic from bet-sizing. Let's take "stick to them" as read for the purpose of this discussion. I'm thinking more about what "them" should be in more detail.

I'm drawn to the proposition that every dollar lost is as valuable as a potential dollar won that you passed up.

By "risk factor", I assume you mean something like the percentage of your trading pot you're prepared to put in harm's way on any given trade? Say, 2%, or whatever.

Now, if you've got into a long just after a big resistance level has been taken out, you can sensibly put in a pretty tight stop back below what's now the support level. So to keep that 2% as a constant, shouldn't you increase your bet size in those situations where you'll abort for only 25 pips lost?

My instinct is that not just the bet size, but even the 2% should be variable based on how likely it is that the loss will materialize. There are situations where you have a long shot at a big profit, and others where you are more confident but targeting a smaller profit. Say these two types of situation have the same expectation (ie, a thousand instances of either type of trade would yield the same net profit); clearly the former will have a much higher variance (ie, you'll hit your stop a lot more frequently). To maintain the same risk of ruin, you'd need to be betting less on the long shots.

Does anyone use a formula for bet sizing that takes all this stuff into account? If so, I'd be interested to hear the thinking behind it. If not, what's your logic for maintaining the same bet size or same percentage of your pot at stake for every trade? I guess for a lot of people it's because they've not given it any thought.

Quote
as we have seen without MM rules you are only gambling in the most dangerous market on the planet.
Yeah, I heard that. Particularly serious problem if it's your own money.
  • #128,029
  • Mar 25, 2009 1:24pm Mar 25, 2009 1:24pm
Quoting doughboi
The dude has a 1k status and you don't have shit! So can you please stop being an asshole or maybe that is just your occupation because you damn sure havent posted anything useful to the forex traders of this community.
Just establishing my asshole credentials. There's some good substantive stuff to come, trust me.
  • #128,030
  • Mar 25, 2009 1:24pm Mar 25, 2009 1:24pm
Quoting thetroll
Agreed, though discipline is a slightly different topic from bet-sizing. Let's take "stick to them" as read for the purpose of this discussion. I'm thinking more about what "them" should be in more detail.

I'm drawn to the proposition that every dollar lost is as valuable as a potential dollar won that you passed up.

By "risk factor", I assume you mean something like the percentage of your trading pot you're prepared to put in harm's way on any given trade? Say, 2%, or whatever.

Now, if you've got into a long just after a big resistance...

Could y'all PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE get back to discussing CABLE?????????
  • #128,031
  • Mar 25, 2009 1:25pm Mar 25, 2009 1:25pm
Quoting Tmac
call your broker and ask them about an investor password to your account

this way you can let others "see" for themselves before investing

your own thread is the only way this will end and if you are good enough then they will follow you
I just email them, waiting the reply.
  • #128,032
  • Mar 25, 2009 1:27pm Mar 25, 2009 1:27pm
Thetroll,
can you be more simple and tell me directly want you want ?
  • #128,033
  • Mar 25, 2009 1:32pm Mar 25, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting smartalicus
Could y'all PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE get back to discussing CABLE?????????
Apologies for the side-track, but it's in the interest of making the main thread content more valuable. It is very odd (compared to other trading forums) that nobody ever mentions bet size (not absolute size, that's a private matter, but relative size compared to one's "normal" trade).

Perhaps you'd like to share your strategy?
  • #128,034
  • Mar 25, 2009 1:33pm Mar 25, 2009 1:33pm
Quoting Abuawad
Thetroll,
can you be more simple and tell me directly want you want ?
Apologies for the verbose - even convoluted - contributions, but the concept is inherently complicated.

OK: How exactly do/should you decide how big to bet on a trade? Always the same, or what?
  • #128,035
  • Mar 25, 2009 1:40pm Mar 25, 2009 1:40pm
Quoting thetroll
Apologies for the verbose - even convoluted - contributions, but the concept is inherently complicated.

OK: How exactly do/should you decide how big to bet on a trade? Always the same, or what?
I don't bet, i wait the confirmation on my analysis lines. if i don't got these confirmation that mean i don't have trade.

you can check the videos on my profile that show haw i trade.
  • #128,036
  • Mar 25, 2009 1:42pm Mar 25, 2009 1:42pm
Quoting thetroll
Agreed, though discipline is a slightly different topic from bet-sizing. Let's take "stick to them" as read for the purpose of this discussion. I'm thinking more about what "them" should be in more detail.

I'm drawn to the proposition that every dollar lost is as valuable as a potential dollar won that you passed up.

By "risk factor", I assume you mean something like the percentage of your trading pot you're prepared to put in harm's way on any given trade? Say, 2%, or whatever.

Now, if you've got into a long just after a big resistance...


Money management can actually be pretty easy. I have attached a spreadsheet . It will tell you how many lots to buy based on your risk and available capital.
How to use it:

  1. Enter your account balance in B19 - don't forget to update this as your account grows or shrinks!
  2. Enter your % risk in B20 (I would suggest the 1.5% in there - if you want to get aggressive, enter 2.5%)
  3. When you get a signal, enter the pair in column A
  4. Enter L or S for Long or Short signal
  5. Enter your entry point in column C
  6. Enter your target in column D (you don't have to live with the target, it's simply used for risk/reward calculation)
  7. Enter your Stop level in Column E
  8. Column I will tell you how many MiniLots to purchase. If you are using standard lots, divide this by 10 and round down (round up if you're aggressive)

At the bottom of the spread sheet are the pairs this will calculate for - if you trade more, you can add them. I don't think this spreadsheet has been updated in a while...
I would suggest that you update them weekly. PIP calculators can be found on the web - Unless the market goes on a wild ride, you could probably just update this every sunday.

Attached File(s)
File Type: zip risk calculator.zip   201 KB | 411 downloads
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #128,037
  • Mar 25, 2009 1:45pm Mar 25, 2009 1:45pm
Quoting Abuawad
I don't bet, i wait the confirmation on my analysis lines. if i don't got these confirmation that mean i don't have trade.

you can check the videos on my profile that show haw i trade.
It's still a bet, old boy. There is risk.

I'm going to pass on the videos, thanks; the usual way to discuss things on a forum is to reply on the forum. If you don't want to participate, that's fine too.
  • #128,038
  • Mar 25, 2009 1:47pm Mar 25, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting Tmac
Money management can actually be pretty easy. I have attached a spreadsheet .
Excellent, thanks for that. Will have a look when I get home, the pub awaits.
  • #128,039
  • Mar 25, 2009 1:47pm Mar 25, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting thetroll
It's still a bet, old boy. There is risk.

I'm going to pass on the videos, thanks; the usual way to discuss things on a forum is to reply on the forum. If you don't want to participate, that's fine too.
My friend i shear all my steps many and many times. and i make these steps on youtube just to clear it for all..
  • #128,040
  • Mar 25, 2009 2:21pm Mar 25, 2009 2:21pm
This thread has really lost it's way...
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
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