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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #2,041
  • Mar 9, 2009 3:41am Mar 9, 2009 3:41am
GM EV - and Vantage too - hope your keeping well

Good to see your also banking pips......now how low will this go.......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,042
  • Mar 9, 2009 3:42am Mar 9, 2009 3:42am
Quoting Islander
The action so far.....I sold the break of the 100 level just before FO, exiting as price broke the 50 level. After it stalled above the 25 level I took a cheeky long for the retrace back to the aqua ema where I sold again as it held......a retrace to hold around a falling 34 ema is one of The Best entries..http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

I've taken some off in the spike down to the 4000 level with the remainder still short to see if last Monday's low ~ 3950 gets tested....
Nice one I missed the earlier break of 1.41 but did get the later lh sell at 1.4072, cheers. Exited all just above 1.40 looks like I should have let some ride.
  • #2,043
  • Mar 9, 2009 4:01am Mar 9, 2009 4:01am
Quoting Islander
The action so far.....I sold the break of the 100 level just before FO, exiting as price broke the 50 level. After it stalled above the 25 level I took a cheeky long for the retrace back to the aqua ema where I sold again as it held......a retrace to hold around a falling 34 ema is one of The Best entries..http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

I've taken some off in the spike down to the 4000 level with the remainder still short to see if last Monday's low ~ 3950 gets tested....
I exited the remainder in the spike down to the 3975 level and have also taken a small long for the bounce, looking to see what happens as this could be a higher low and the start of a bigger bounce - if not, my stop is already at BE +10, so its now a free trade....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,044
  • Mar 9, 2009 4:18am Mar 9, 2009 4:18am
The small doji just below the confluence of the 13ema and the xx00 psych-line inititiated this trade. I entered just below the 1.4000 line and let it ride. I was tempted to bail out after the small candle formed just under and touching the xx80 psych line, but decided to let it ride whilst keeping a close eye on it. I finally jumped ship after price pierced the 1.3950 psych-line and started retreating upwards again.
Attached Image
  • #2,045
  • Mar 9, 2009 4:36am Mar 9, 2009 4:36am
Quoting eyevoltage
The small doji just below the confluence of the 13ema and the xx00 psych-line inititiated this trade. I entered just below the 1.4000 line and let it ride. I was tempted to bail out after the small candle formed just under and touching the xx80 psych line, but decided to let it ride whilst keeping a close eye on it. I finally jumped ship after price pierced the 1.3950 psych-line and started retreating upwards again.

Nice one EV - I got stopped for +10 on that cheeky buy and did another sell as the 4000 level broke - its always safer to take these trades in the direction of the main trend - again out at the next new lower level - the 950 - and another cheeky buy with a tight stop, already at +10.

So far this is just a cable move, both euro and swissy are sideways in narrow ranges and whilst cable was -230 at its low, the last three 30 min candles have all had long downside wicks on increasing volume, so there must be some buying coming in - probably just profit taking.....TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,046
  • Mar 9, 2009 4:42am Mar 9, 2009 4:42am
Quoting Islander
GM all - here's my hourly chart. The green Support Zone is off my Monthly chart and is therefore an important one and as we can see, so far on this move it is holding. It was broken by the ultra wide range daily candle back in January, when price immediatly bounced back up off the 3500 level.
How about this TL?..
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One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,047
  • Mar 9, 2009 4:45am Mar 9, 2009 4:45am
Now IF cable closes around the 1.4000 level, it will make one of those pin bars that so many traders follow - a good old doji to you and me....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,048
  • Mar 9, 2009 4:47am Mar 9, 2009 4:47am
Quoting Forex007
How about this TL?..
Ah a good point FX007 - BTW - nice chart....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,049
  • Mar 9, 2009 5:32am Mar 9, 2009 5:32am
Good morning all, hope everyone is well,

Had a nice little setup this morning on U/J... a bullish hammer formed piercing the xx50 line and the 34ema, I took the break to the top which tied in with the current upward direction. Spurred on by Forex007's talk of R:R I let this one run up until I got 36 pips (for an initial risk of 12). I considered letting it run until it hit 99.00 but I chickened out a little early!
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  • #2,050
  • Mar 9, 2009 5:49am Mar 9, 2009 5:49am
Quoting DanUK
Good morning all, hope everyone is well,

Had a nice little setup this morning on U/J... a bullish hammer formed piercing the xx50 line and the 34ema, I took the break to the top which tied in with the current upward direction. Spurred on by Forex007's talk of R:R I let this one run up until I got 36 pips (for an initial risk of 12). I considered letting it run until it hit 99.00 but I chickened out a little early!
Nice one, mate, and I was actually watching this one in passing as it developed, but I was busy with other things and couldn't take advantage. Been some nice moves this morning so far....let's hope they continue!
  • #2,051
  • Mar 9, 2009 5:53am Mar 9, 2009 5:53am
Quoting DanUK
I let this one run up until I got 36 pips (for an initial risk of 12). I considered letting it run until it hit 99.00 but I chickened out a little early!
That's the kind of setups I am waiting hours for! Great trade, Dan! And, more importantly, great RR!

It's none of my business, of course, but guys here (EV, Islander, Vantage etc) take great trades, yet - only in my humble opinion - sometimes they exit way too soo (RR-wise). Surely, they do what they feel comfortable with, and I am not critisizing them in ANY way, but...

If a trade is with the current (higher TF) trend, it should run to at least RR2. Nobody wants (and should) give the profit away, so exiting half the position at the "chicken" point and moving SL to a new logical level could do the trick

Think about it from this viewpoint - cable moves 100-300pips per day. If you enter off a nice PB (say 20-30pips SL) at the initial third of that move, you could get RR6-8 if you stay with the trend. Also, big moves rarely end and turn around abruptly, so the market would give you plenty of warning. But again - that's just my view...
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,052
  • Mar 9, 2009 6:14am Mar 9, 2009 6:14am
A spinning-top forming just under the 13ema after a short retracement alerted me to this one. I entered just under the spinning-top low, not fully convinced that price would get past the 1.2600 psych-line. However, it did better than that and I bailed out as soon as price started retreating back towards the xx80 psych-line. My SL, incidentally, was 1.2624, which was right on the 34ema.
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  • #2,053
  • Mar 9, 2009 6:22am Mar 9, 2009 6:22am
Quoting Forex007
That's the kind of setups I am waiting hours for! Great trade, Dan! And, more importantly, great RR!

It's none of my business, of course, but guys here (EV, Islander, Vantage etc) take great trades, yet - only in my humble opinion - sometimes they exit way too soo (RR-wise). Surely, they do what they feel comfortable with, and I am not critisizing them in ANY way, but...

If a trade is with the current (higher TF) trend, it should run to at least RR2. Nobody wants (and should) give the profit away, so exiting half the position...
Hi FX007, and thanks for your views which are always welcome. As ever, you're entitled to your opinion, humble or otherwise, and I respect them. I guess the simple answer to your post is that everybody has their own way of doing things, and nothing will ever change that. I've stated on here before that IMO I'm not exactly an expert on R:R, and I really should brush up on it, but I seem to muddle through, nevertheless. From my point of view, I'm not after "big" moves, but the sort of moves that come along on a fairly regular basis, and which, in turn, will have a good chance of producing anywhere from maybe 20 to 50 pips at a time. Doesn't always happen, I know, but at the end of the day, even one or two moves like that make me a happy trader!
I look forward to seeing further posts from you, mate.
Cheers
  • #2,054
  • Mar 9, 2009 6:30am Mar 9, 2009 6:30am
Quoting Forex007
It's none of my business, of course, but guys here (EV, Islander, Vantage etc) take great trades, yet - only in my humble opinion - sometimes they exit way too soo (RR-wise). Surely, they do what they feel comfortable with, and I am not critisizing them in ANY way, but...

If a trade is with the current (higher TF) trend, it should run to at least RR2. Nobody wants (and should) give the profit away, so exiting half the position at the "chicken" point and moving SL to a new logical level could do the trick

Think about it from this viewpoint...
I know for me at least this is a valid point. I exit too early, whilst I often re-enter from 1 min (on same basis as 5 min lh's/hl's for continuation moves) I probably miss more than I get. To try and solve this I'm also looking at pyramiding concept, taking two thirds of first trade at an appropriate level and adding a third or half of original trade at 1 min re-entries.

If there's anyone that is trading successfully scaling into runs I'm all ears.
  • #2,055
  • Mar 9, 2009 6:42am Mar 9, 2009 6:42am
Quoting Forex007
That's the kind of setups I am waiting hours for! Great trade, Dan! And, more importantly, great RR!

It's none of my business, of course, but guys here (EV, Islander, Vantage etc) take great trades, yet - only in my humble opinion - sometimes they exit way too soo (RR-wise). Surely, they do what they feel comfortable with, and I am not critisizing them in ANY way, but...

If a trade is with the current (higher TF) trend, it should run to at least RR2. Nobody wants (and should) give the profit away, so exiting half the position at...
LOL FX007 - you've been reading my posts where I've said that this is a problem that I have and that as we move towards spring and other pressures on my time I intend to take longer term trades......http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,056
  • Edited 7:25am Mar 9, 2009 7:04am | Edited 7:25am
Quoting Vantage
I know for me at least this is a valid point. I exit too early, whilst I often re-enter from 1 min (on same basis as 5 min lh's/hl's for continuation moves) I probably miss more than I get. To try and solve this I'm also looking at pyramiding concept, taking two thirds of first trade at an appropriate level and adding a third or half of original trade at 1 min re-entries.

If there's anyone that is trading successfully scaling into runs I'm all ears.

I have a problem with scaling in - I'd rather put on a trade and then scale out. In MT4 this means either exiting a part of the trade manually or putting on three trades immediatly and then you can set different limit orders for exits.

Also, when taking early trades around the start of Frankies Hour whilst we are always certain of catching some early action, we can never be certain that the action is not going to reverse, especially after LO when The Brits start trading, hence early on I like to bank my pips and then re-enter like this morning when there was a classic pull back the the 5m 34ema followed by a long steady 225 pip drop, one off at 4000, another off at 3900 and one still running.....oh for 20/20 hindsight.....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,057
  • Mar 9, 2009 7:53am Mar 9, 2009 7:53am
Quoting eyevoltage
From my point of view, I'm not after "big" moves, but the sort of moves that come along on a fairly regular basis, and which, in turn, will have a good chance of producing anywhere from maybe 20 to 50 pips at a time. Doesn't always happen, I know, but at the end of the day, even one or two moves like that make me a happy trader!
I look forward to seeing further posts from you, mate.
EV and the rest of the gang, thanks a lot for taking my views/opinions in a constructive way. I always liked the spirit of this thread.

I am not after the size (of a move), I am after RR which would make my equity curve grow steadily.

There is nothing wrong with taking a 20-pip trade as such; but if a SL is 30pips, then it's a different story. If I take 100 trades, lose 45 of them with 30pips each and win 55 of them with 20pips each, I won't be able to afford Crystal
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,058
  • Mar 9, 2009 8:12am Mar 9, 2009 8:12am
Quoting Vantage
To try and solve this I'm also looking at pyramiding concept, taking two thirds of first trade at an appropriate level and adding a third or half of original trade at 1 min re-entries.
If there's anyone that is trading successfully scaling into runs I'm all ears.
There is no fast rule here, as we all have different goals.

Some of the concepts to consider: (a) "free trade" - take 1/2 at RR1 and keep SL at the original point (to let the trade breath), moving it as the price reaches logical SR levels; (b) a more conservative version of a "free trade", you can take 2/3 off at RR1, so when you SL is hit you are in the money. Either option covers your back - in the worst case scenario you simply break even.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,059
  • Mar 9, 2009 8:17am Mar 9, 2009 8:17am
Quoting Islander
I have a problem with scaling in - I'd rather put on a trade and then scale out.
I guess it's a personal preference, but some traders argue (logically) that scaling in is mathematically more profitable than scaling out: if you enter with a small position and the trade does not work, your loss is small. Also, with scaling in you add to an already profitable trade - better chance of at least breaking even if things later don't develop as planned.

On a related note, with the same logic, moving SL is potentially more profitable that partial exit: if the trade continues, you then make profit on a large position if you didn't take partial exit.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,060
  • Mar 9, 2009 8:30am Mar 9, 2009 8:30am
With cable on a slippery slope it seems, it's always worth waiting for just the right signal which inevitably comes along during situations like this. The first arrow shows a pin-bar followed by a small spinning-top and then an engulfing candle.....all bang on the 1.3800 psych-line. Entry was just under the xx80 psych-line, with the exit as price started heading upwards again after breaching the xx50 psych-line. All of which proves yet again that patience gets pips!

Edit: Forgot to mention that my original TP was 1.3750, so I got the bonus of a candle busting through it, before heading back up.
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