Cable Update (GBPUSD)

The strange thing is that I thought of a move exactly like that because of technicals. Now everyone is curve-fit these moves with fundamentals.
It seems technicals and fundamentals relates to each other. Very interesting.

Oh My GOD!! The long I got slaughtered on was right all along. That is such a shame.

i suppose that would make me feel better..

ok why not. i blame bush.





i still feel stinking miserable.

WHITE HOUSE: SAYS HAS NOT HEARD ANYTHING ABOUT US CITIZENS BEING ASKED TO LEAVE BAHRAIN - WIRE HEADLINE
- rumor of appear to have arisen after a U.S. embassy advisory to U.S.
residents in Bahrain was posted, warning American's to avoid being
in areas where opposition activists plan to hold protests due to the potential for violence...

I'll come back monday to trade.... that's better to my health

Go check all majors/CHF, kaztenhai... Stink of war just a few minutes ago around the world. Nobody traded EWs.

Subwave 5 up here, and caught the whole move this time. Next week/month will be interesting. The long-awaited monthly doji has failed? Let's see.

NEW YORK, Mar 31, 2007 (AP via COMTEX) -- Wall Street retreated Friday, the last trading day of a turbulent first quarter, with investors displaying nervousness on news of U.S. economic sanctions against China and rising inflation.

Stocks had initially climbed after a rise in consumer spending and growth in Chicago-area manufacturing.
But in late morning trading, the Bush administration said it is imposing economic sanctions against China to protect American paper producers from unfair Chinese government subsidies.

The news caused the dollar to weaken, raising concerns in the market about the U.S. currency's status as an investment vehicle.

Two super screwups at the same time on a Friday, end of Q1 and Japan FY, USD news.

What are the odds?

I'm going to be all over this market next week. I'm not going to let a single pip slip under my radar.

I dont like the look of the resistance caused by the line joining the previous highs this month. That said, moves like this don't happen by accident, there is too much momentum behind what happened today. Bring on Sunday night.

I should prepare to welcome Mr. 9900, start monday.

Champagne's on me

often they do. in this case, no.

the technicals were indicating no trade day bias slightly bullish for dollar.

there was a clear moment during dollar decline that there was a good point of entry for selling on technicals (for xxx/USD pairs). the price action negated that. AFTER dollar declined further, THEN the technicals hinted at reversal for dollar pairs.

the thing is, technicals will not show you how far the pairs will go before reversing again in this particular case. that would depend on the markets reaction to whatever was moving the market.

this was purely a movement based on fundamental.

my technical analysis told me nothing of this sudden reversal.

i consider that a 'good' thing.

correction to what i just typed. cable is still ranging and most other USD pairs. when i said reversal---meant immediate not a true reversal.

finally I have some who have same vision......

following is rather long but may of interest to many of you:

LONDON, Mar 31, 2007 (AFX via COMTEX) -- The dollar turned lower in a sudden reversal of fortunes late in the European session, as a jittery market reacted to speculation of rising tensions in the Middle East.


News of US plans to impose sanctions on some Chinese imports also dented the US currency amid speculation that China will take retaliatory action.


The dollar which had been slowly gaining ground after some strong US data, backtracked on unspecified rumours that US citizens have been ordered to leave Bahrain.


"The dollar slides across the board on a combination of rumours that the US Department has told US citizens to leave Bahrain," said Ashraf Laidi at CMC Markets.


"The news has further fuelled the risk premium in oil prices, generating the same dollar reaction seen upon the rumours of a military confrontation between the US and Iran earlier this week," he added.


Jamie Coleman at Thomson IFR Markets echoed the same story, saying that rumours are running wild.


"One making the rounds is that US citizens have been warned to leave Bahrain in preparation for a strike against Iran," he said.


He was sceptical of the rumour, however.
Laidi said most of the dollar's falls may be due to news that the US will impose heavy sanctions on some Chinese imports.


A US Commerce Department official was reported as saying that the US will impose economic sanctions against China as a way of protecting American paper producers from unfair Chinese government subsidies.


The action will reverse 20 years of US trade policy by treating China, which is classified as a non-market economy, in the same way that other US trading partners are treated in disputes involving government subsidies.
"Whether today's decision will be reversed by the World Trade Organisation or not, it will likely trigger possible retaliatory acts from China such as further diversification of its forex reserves, which will likely hit the US currency," said Laidi at CMC.


"The existing shaky dollar sentiment in currency markets amid the impact of sub-prime woes and housing slowdown is likely to be reinforced by todays tariff decision," he added.


Earlier, the dollar had made some ground, finding support from a set of strong US data including a pick-up in a key measure of inflation and consumer spending, signalling that the Fed is right to remain concerned about inflation.


US data today revealed that consumer spending and personal income both rose twice as fast as expected in February, while a key measure of inflation rose at its fastest pace in half a year.


"The real surprise was the increase in spending, having risen by twice the median and comparing to a flat reading on retail sales," analysts at Thomson's IFR Markets said.


"The US economy and the dollar seem to be telling the market, I'm not dead yet. This is not the sign of an economy getting ready to keel over at any moment," added Coleman at Thomson IFR.


The US data in question showed incomes rising 0.6 pct in February after increasing by 1.0 pct in the previous month, while spending rose 0.6 pct following a 0.5 pct rise in January.


Meanwhile, inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.4 pct in February after rising 0.2 pct in January. In the past year, the PCE price index has risen 2.3 pct.
Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is considered by the Federal Reserve to be a better barometer of prices, rose 0.3 pct in the month, the fastest monthly gain since August.
The figures demonstrated just why US rate setters are concerned about inflationary pressures ahead.


After all this week saw US GDP revised up and tough anti-inflationary talk from Fed members.


In Europe, the euro failed to get much of a lift from some strong data, including a pick-up in French business sentiment and a rise in inflation.
Preliminary euro zone inflation data showed the headline rate edging up to 1.9 pct in March from 1.8 pct in February, although many expect the headline figure to be revised later when full information for all the economies are out.


While the data suggest inflation risks remain subdued in the euro zone, it is still consistent with European Central Bank hiking the refi rate up to 4.0 pct from 3.75 pct by mid year, said David Brown at Bear Stearns.


The yen, meanwhile, edged lower after data out of Japan showed February CPI falling in both the headline and core inflation measures. The impact was partly offset by the demand brought on by the repatriation of funds during the last trading day of the Japanese fiscal year.


Japan's core CPI fell 0.1 pct in February from a year earlier, posting its first drop in 10 months, after being unchanged in January. On a month-on-month basis, the core CPI marked its fourth consecutive drop in February, down by 0.3 pct after a 0.4 pct drop in January.


The pound was a touch lower after news that UK consumer confidence remains depressed.


In its monthly survey, GfK/NOP said its main headline consumer confidence index was unchanged at -8 in March, the same as in the previous month and in line with predictions. Four of the five sub-indices that make up the headline measure were unchanged.


The only change was in the question regarding whether now is the right time to make major purchases, which slipped to +2 from +4 in February.
The survey went against the grain of stronger UK data of late. But notably, the pound has not been able to rise despite strengthening rate hike expectations.


"Sterling has failed to capitalise on the stronger than expected mortgage approvals and CBI distributive trades reports," said Pearson at HBOS.
Focus now shifts to the possibility of a UK rate hike next week. While most watchers expect the BoE to hold fire next Thursday, most also concede that the decision will be close.


According to the AFX News poll, eight out of 32 economists reckon that the Monetary Policy Committee will lift its benchmark rate another quarter point to 5.50 pct. That number will likely increase if next week's purchasing managers' indices of the manufacturing and services sectors come in strong.
Michael Saunders, economist at Citigroup, said it's 50-50 at the moment whether the BoE will hike, but added that a hike will be more likely than not if the PMIs are on the strong side.


And, if April does not, May is likely to deliver the rate increase.

Yes, I can see it. But once a wise (very profitable) trader said: News and rumours are already priced in.
And thats what I saw today. It is like you can read the fundamental future out of technicals and vice versa.

Fibos, EWs and price action told me this move. I would say these are technical indicators.
There are times when technical and fundamental falls together. We already saw days were GBP/USD not moved on such news. Whats then?

I'm not sure about this subwave 5 up you counted.

nice to know some still remember what I've said.. LOL

but overall Im with you

Sorry, but I don't get that. Fibos and Elliot Waves aligned for a Gulf Crisis rumor beforehand?

Like a US Marine is only going to fire a tomahawk if the RSI is telling him to. Or a F-18 will take-off only if USD-index reached important resistance.

I don't think so..

No. Market reflects humans emotions and instincts, like for example astrology shows you the quality of time.

As far as I can see no one here traded this beforehand. So what are the news worth if you only can know after the event happened, what happened? Thats useless and only a try to fill in the gaps of unknowing for our ego. Egos don't like it to be not in control of anything, but they are satisfied if they 'know' what was going on.

Have you read these news? Have you acted on them? Why not??

sorry, I dont get it.... could u simplify it?