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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #125,441
  • Mar 7, 2009 7:25pm Mar 7, 2009 7:25pm
I do see your point Galation, though I wanted to set a second one as close to closing prices as I could. I was looking up to about 1.46 and then down on the first. In any case it does seem that there is and will continue to be massive selling pressure on this
  • #125,442
  • Mar 7, 2009 8:33pm Mar 7, 2009 8:33pm
Quoting ezodisy
I do see your point Galation, though I wanted to set a second one as close to closing prices as I could. I was looking up to about 1.46 and then down on the first. In any case it does seem that there is and will continue to be massive selling pressure on this
take a previous look at the wave count posted previously. might give you a minds eye of possible outcomes.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #125,443
  • Mar 7, 2009 8:36pm Mar 7, 2009 8:36pm
Here is link for other POV where GU may go this week.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=156630&page=3




Quoting england33
take a previous look at the wave count posted previously. might give you a minds eye of possible outcomes.
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  • #125,444
  • Mar 7, 2009 9:00pm Mar 7, 2009 9:00pm
Quoting rgitt05
Here is link for other POV where GU may go this week.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=156630&page=3

thanks.. just got done looking at the post and will continue to follow.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #125,445
  • Mar 8, 2009 3:58am Mar 8, 2009 3:58am
It maybe real bad news but it has actually strengthened the pound

close on friday mt was 1.4070 although last quote on close i have on ig was 1.4090.However real time have it as we are going to gap up over a 100 pips with a quote of 1.4175.

It seems impossible to trade the news lately.

Will be interesting to see if the gap holds over the next 12 hours with orders coming in it may change.
  • #125,446
  • Mar 8, 2009 4:12am Mar 8, 2009 4:12am
Quoting england33
take a previous look at the wave count posted previously. might give you a minds eye of possible outcomes.
I went back 3 pages and couldn't see it. Could you give me a link please?
  • #125,447
  • Mar 8, 2009 7:31am Mar 8, 2009 7:31am
Breakout due soon...

The triangle formation is showing a more bearish mode.

If the 1.3950 support zone breaks than furthur PA to the downside is confirm to test the lows of 1.3500.

The PA is sitting on the 76.8% retracement and critical zone for Reversal or Break

The overall trend is bearish and the CCI crossed thru the -100 level

The fundamental news from London over the weekend is bearish.

http://www.forexcrunch.com/bad-briti...sks-the-pound/

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...KPg&refer=home

Unless the market price in this BS news than I believe this week GU is ready to test the lows again..

Good Luck..

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  • #125,448
  • Mar 8, 2009 7:50am Mar 8, 2009 7:50am
Quoting rgitt05
Breakout due soon...

The triangle formation is showing a more bearish mode.

If the 1.3950 support zone breaks than furthur PA to the downside is confirm to test the lows of 1.3500.

The PA is sitting on the 76.8% retracement and critical zone for Reversal or Break

The overall trend is bearish and the CCI crossed thru the -100 level

The fundamental news from London over the weekend...
heavy near-term resistance, no fundamental drivers to move up, i'll have to agree with bear scenario.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #125,449
  • Mar 8, 2009 8:46am Mar 8, 2009 8:46am
This is my platform for tomorrow !
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I only trade XAU/USD. Based on USD news & Fib SR & BB20
  • #125,450
  • Mar 8, 2009 9:29am Mar 8, 2009 9:29am
Quoting karateman69
It maybe real bad news but it has actually strengthened the pound

close on friday mt was 1.4070 although last quote on close i have on ig was 1.4090.However real time have it as we are going to gap up over a 100 pips with a quote of 1.4175.

It seems impossible to trade the news lately.

Will be interesting to see if the gap holds over the next 12 hours with orders coming in it may change.

What gives force to the pound over the past three weeks

the clear interventions from the BOE....

It is a contentious issue in the United Kingdom now

Instead direct money to the struggling economy... they are buying pound...
  • #125,451
  • Edited 10:02am Mar 8, 2009 9:37am | Edited 10:02am
Quoting nedooo
What gives force to the pound over the past three weeks

the clear interventions from the BOE....

It is a contentious issue in the United Kingdom now

Instead direct money to the struggling economy... they are buying pound...
Intervention from the BOE in the currency markets? This I have not heard. Can you please provide more details from which source you ascertained this information from? Personally, I think it unlikely at this stage. I am based in the UK and have not heard anything concerning this issue, aside from the usual brief chatter on the internet forums.

They are intervening in the credit markets, via QE measures announced, which will initially entail a purchase of gilts in the open markets from newly created reserves (printed money). Therefore, this is a way of pumping money into the economy.
  • #125,452
  • Mar 8, 2009 9:59am Mar 8, 2009 9:59am
FYI, before Asian market, if it does not reach 1.4200, then it will drop to 1.4126 and perhaps at later, one hour before UK time, then it will drop further to 1.4050. This is just my prediction. Let's see tomorrow
  • #125,453
  • Mar 8, 2009 10:13am Mar 8, 2009 10:13am
I had taken a late trade Friday, took a bite on what looked to be bottom, am holding a long @ 1.4047. Much as I am not one to want to hold a trade over a weekend, I believe this to be safe. I am not worried about a gap down, I still believe cable to have gained in the last part of the week. Creating a new high on Friday and holding support lines from Thursdays low would lead me to believe that even if the trend doesn't continue to the long side, I will still be able to exit with a profit.

Am looking for first stomping ground of resistance @ Thursdays High in the 1.4230 area.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #125,454
  • Mar 8, 2009 10:23am Mar 8, 2009 10:23am
Ditto that. I'll have to see what it looks like after Sunday's close however.

Quoting Magix
I had taken a late trade Friday, took a bite on what looked to be bottom, am holding a long @ 1.4047. Much as I am not one to want to hold a trade over a weekend, I believe this to be safe. I am not worried about a gap down, I still believe cable to have gained in the last part of the week. Creating a new high on Friday and holding support lines from Thursdays low would lead me to believe that even if the trend doesn't continue to the long side, I will still be able to exit with a profit.

Am looking for first stomping ground of resistance @ Thursdays...
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #125,455
  • Mar 8, 2009 10:44am Mar 8, 2009 10:44am
Quoting Magix
I had taken a late trade Friday, took a bite on what looked to be bottom, am holding a long @ 1.4047. Much as I am not one to want to hold a trade over a weekend, I believe this to be safe. I am not worried about a gap down, I still believe cable to have gained in the last part of the week. Creating a new high on Friday and holding support lines from Thursdays low would lead me to believe that even if the trend doesn't continue to the long side, I will still be able to exit with a profit.

Am looking for first stomping ground of resistance @ Thursdays...
Good jpb. Whatever it is ... you still makes profit.
  • #125,456
  • Mar 8, 2009 10:54am Mar 8, 2009 10:54am
I went long at 4080 Friday but didn't like the "feel" of it so I bailed at 4118.

I'm looking for a bounce up on open to around the 4200 area at which point I think I'll go short looking for the 3950 area.

Should be an interesting week.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #125,457
  • Mar 8, 2009 10:55am Mar 8, 2009 10:55am
Written by TheLFB-Forex.com | Mar 06 09 21:07 GMT |

Dollar Index: Could The Pound Decline Sharply?
With the Bank of England officially announcing yesterday it would issue new central bank reserves (money) in order to purchase up to 150 billion pounds of assets, mostly U.K. government bonds (gilts), it seems reasonable to assume there's a potential to see the pound decline sharply.

The bank undertook its quantitative easing program because by itself, the 50 basis point reduction in its main policy rate would "still leave a substantial risk of undershooting the 2% CPI inflation target in the medium term," the BoE said in its statement.

In this instance, "undershooting" the inflation target means the bank is concerned about deflation taking hold.

"The Committee also resolved to undertake further monetary actions, with the aim of boosting the supply of money and credit and thus raising the rate of growth of nominal spending,” the statement went on to say.

So with the BoE printing new money in order to raise the supply, and because increased supply tends to drive down price, it seems the bank now wishes to create inflation (in order to combat deflation) by devaluing the currency.
Yesterday's move could just be a first step. Officials said in their statement that they will "monitor the effectiveness of this purchase program in boosting the supply of money and credit and in due course raising the rate of growth of nominal spending, adjusting the speed and scale of purchases as appropriate."

In general, the better-yielding currencies (euro, pound, aussie and kiwi) tend to appreciate when U.S. equity markets rise and they fall when stocks are sold. So the question is whether the pound can "dis-connect" from the equity markets when they have another inevitable bear market rally.

If it can, it could be a signal that the pound can sharply depreciate. And while there's little evidence of the happening yet, it certainly is something which currency traders will want to stay aware of over the coming days and weeks.
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  • #125,458
  • Mar 8, 2009 11:32am Mar 8, 2009 11:32am
Cable has been heading down from Feb23, if you pull a fib line from1.4660 to March 2 low 1.3956 youll see this down movement just pulled back beautifully to the 50 fib pivot ok within 5 pips and then bounced down, time to board the bus I got in @ 1.4284 notice the other resistance on the 1hr tf. I dont like to hold a trade of this sort over the weekend so I closed the whole trade out 200pip profit.I expect to see a some retrace from this move into the 1.4170area then down if resistance holds much above 1.4200 and we will head north either way doesnt matter just playin what theyll give me! Lookin to 1.3900 south if resistance breaks lookin to get back where it started 1.4300 good trading this week to all.
  • #125,459
  • Mar 8, 2009 12:35pm Mar 8, 2009 12:35pm
GBPUSD – One-sided trader sentiment has left our forex trading strategies heavily short the GBP/USD. The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.27 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.18 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 32.0% higher than yesterday and a massive 100.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 22.9% higher than yesterday and 25.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 27.8% stronger than yesterday and 51.4% above its monthly average. Aggressive forex crowd GBP/USD buying signals that further losses are likely.

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currenc...264560765.html

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  • #125,460
  • Mar 8, 2009 6:12pm Mar 8, 2009 6:12pm
good evenin' everybody, have a great green pip week!
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