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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #125,261
  • Mar 6, 2009 4:07am Mar 6, 2009 4:07am
Quoting goodwings
Thank you very much.
I will increase my insight by that.
And presently i have gotten my take profit from my short position started at 1.4265. Your strategy will definitely work for me....someday..... because i love ema. Success to you always.
Now, price is at a pivot point (R1) on my chart.....waiting for a bounce or a break of that surport(which was a resistace) . Once again thanks.
ya using 200ema on 1hr chart as support...resistance turned into support

thanks also
  • #125,262
  • Mar 6, 2009 4:09am Mar 6, 2009 4:09am
Quoting dstryr
...... lol
what is so funny? It's a genuine pattern. I am just trading what I see and have gone long at 4210
  • #125,263
  • Mar 6, 2009 4:11am Mar 6, 2009 4:11am
It has a minor effect at the moment as inflation is not really a major concern in this pair. Previously it would have been an indication as to whether the UK was likely to cut/increase interest rates.

I have noticed that there is a strong move by the Jap Yen this morning with all of GBP, EUR and USD taking a tumble against it. While one currency makes such a strong move it tends to create pretty choppy conditions on the crossover pairs like cable and EurUSD. Until that move is over, I am staying out for now.

Rumour has it that the Non farm data today could see in excess of 1million so speculation is that a lot of money is taking safe haven for now in JPY. Only an unsubstantiated rumour so take it with a pinch of pips.

GBPJPY has also just bounced on an ascending trendline so if that holds, the slide may be over.



Quoting goodwings
Anyone with sound fundamental background that can help us know whether the effect of that good news 4 GPB will be felt now or that wil be for long term? Presently a triangle on M15 and a break upward or downward anymoment from now. Take care.....follow the right on pls. Am short!
Ride the Bulls bearback!
  • #125,264
  • Mar 6, 2009 4:13am Mar 6, 2009 4:13am
If GBP hold at 1.4220-30, she could go to 1.4370 before US market open.
I expect that..
The market is always right, but it is not never wrong!!!
  • #125,265
  • Mar 6, 2009 4:13am Mar 6, 2009 4:13am
my view..cable will come down this night...hehee.....since USDCHF recover back from pain....
be patient, self-belief and discipline... stay focus...
  • #125,266
  • Mar 6, 2009 4:23am Mar 6, 2009 4:23am
Quoting radit27
my view..cable will come down this night...hehee.....since USDCHF recover back from pain....
Maybe plus minus 50 pips from DP/1.4132 !
I only trade XAU/USD. Based on USD news & Fib SR & BB20
  • #125,267
  • Mar 6, 2009 4:52am Mar 6, 2009 4:52am
Quoting alcando
It has a minor effect at the moment as inflation is not really a major concern in this pair....
Thank you alcando,
How you use other pairs to make judgments is so interesting.
But about the "Rumour", i wonder how you know about it ...but for sure that has an effect on sentiments. Thanks
  • #125,268
  • Mar 6, 2009 5:21am Mar 6, 2009 5:21am
Tweezer top on 4hr is something to watch (4am and 8am candles).
The trend is not your friend, it's your master.
  • #125,269
  • Mar 6, 2009 6:23am Mar 6, 2009 6:23am
anyone taking any positions before the jobs number?
  • #125,270
  • Mar 6, 2009 6:25am Mar 6, 2009 6:25am
Quoting Cultured
Tweezer top on 4hr is something to watch (4am and 8am candles).
I went short at 1.4238 once H4 closed below the previous candle close ! I hope the tweezer hold until hit my TP 1.4165 !
I only trade XAU/USD. Based on USD news & Fib SR & BB20
  • #125,271
  • Mar 6, 2009 6:31am Mar 6, 2009 6:31am
Quoting manize
I went short at 1.4238 once H4 closed below the previous candle close ! I hope the tweezer hold until hit my TP 1.4165 !
I went short @ 4240 BEP+1 my target is 4155. hope SHE can Hit my TP.
  • #125,272
  • Mar 6, 2009 6:42am Mar 6, 2009 6:42am
Quoting alcando
It has a minor effect at the moment as inflation is not really a major concern in this pair. Previously it would have been an indication as to whether the UK was likely to cut/increase interest rates.
I agree. It acts as a leading indicator towards future readings of CPI. These are price pressures that producers currently face, which, to a large extent, will eventually be passed onto the end consumer in the form of higher prices in the coming months. However, with consumer demand so weak, much of the cost increases from these data will be absorbed by retailer and other consumer-facing businesses, which will obviously hurt their bottom line.

On a sidenote, I posted the below opinion on the EURUSD thread in a discussion on the risks posed to inflation from the QE measures announced yesterday by the BOE. It might be of some interest to a few on here. If not, just ignore it

At the moment when the UK is facing an increasing risks of multi-year deflation and an economic depression, a degree of price pressures is seen as mildly positive for an economy. People will always buy today if something will cost more next week.

I think the UK has no choice but to print money, via the QE measures announced yesterday. They are starting with a relatively small amount, when one compares it to the sharp contraction in credit to the economy witnessed over the past 18 months. Essentially, it is an attempt to partially mitigate the damaging effects of the de-leveraging process

There is a risk of fuelling high inflation in the future. But I feel this risk is fairly minimal at the moment, given the strong deflationary pressures that are engulfing the UK's economy, from contracting credit mentioned above and falling asset prices. Moreover, I think far greater pain will be inflicted on the economy if the BOE were to sit back and do nothing.

My only gripe is the fact they are targeting the purchase of gilts in an attempt to bring down the price of credit for corporates and consumers. If this is the goal, which is undoubtedly is, then why not directly purchase investment grade corporate debt instead? The credit risk is, in my opinon, more than covered by the near-record wide credit speads the market is currently placing on this type of paper.

It is inevitable, in my mind, that the ECB will eventually need to follow this path taken by the BOE and the Fed. However, like much else, only time will tell.
  • #125,273
  • Mar 6, 2009 6:58am Mar 6, 2009 6:58am
Quoting gammase1
I agree. It acts as a leading indicator towards future readings of CPI. These are price pressures that producers currently face, which, to a large extent, will eventually be passed onto the end consumer in the form of higher prices in the coming months. However, with consumer demand so weak, much of the cost increases from these data will be absorbed by retailer and other consumer-facing businesses, which will obviously hurt their bottom line.

On a sidenote, I posted the below opinion on the EURUSD thread in a discussion on the risks posed to...
gammase, Nice stuff you wrote. Must i know this to have more pips? I mean, this are much like stories to Engineers, what are you? an economist? I just feel i have a long long way to go in this business by your long long speech!
  • #125,274
  • Mar 6, 2009 7:08am Mar 6, 2009 7:08am
Quoting goodwings
gammase, Nice stuff you wrote. Must i know this to have more pips? I mean, this are much like stories to Engineers, what are you? an economist? I just feel i have a long long way to go in this business by your long long speech!
Spent many years working for an investment bank, so received continuous training on macroeconomics matters, through being surrounded by some very able individuals.

It is not essential to have an in-depth knowledge of fundamentals to succeed. However, I believe a good grounding in this subject will help you greatly in understanding the markets. Having said that, some of the great technical traders I know, some of whom post on here, claim that fundamentals cloud their judgement, so they will focus solely on the charts.

I use a mix of fundamentals and technicals in my approach to trading and investing. But it's just about finding a profitable approach that works for you over the long-term. Most of my trades are medium or long-term punts across different asset classes, so fundamentals (sometimes) give me a better understanding of the changing world around us.
  • #125,275
  • Mar 6, 2009 7:23am Mar 6, 2009 7:23am
Quoting gammase1
Spent many years working for an investment bank, so received continuous training on macroeconomics matters, through being surrounded by some very able individuals.

It is not essential to have in-depth knowledge of fundamentals to succeed. However, I believe a good grounding in this subject will help you greatly in understanding the markets. Having said that, some of the great technical traders I know, some of whom post on here, claim that fundamentals cloud their judgement, so they will focus solely on the charts.

I use a mix of fundamentals...
I really feel honored talking with a person like you.
At least am inspired. Apart from having the knowledge you have a simple way of passing it out. Thanks. I have you now on my special list. All are created equal....but....others BECOME more equal than others....Mr Chairman!
  • #125,276
  • Mar 6, 2009 7:23am Mar 6, 2009 7:23am
Hi everyone. How's the trade?
  • #125,277
  • Mar 6, 2009 7:29am Mar 6, 2009 7:29am
Quoting Myman
Hi everyone. How's the trade?
buy 1.4225, SL 1.4195 TP = up to u (may 1pips or ....)
  • #125,278
  • Mar 6, 2009 7:30am Mar 6, 2009 7:30am
Quoting goodwings
I really feel honored talking with a person like you.
At least am inspired. Apart from having the knowledge you have a simple way of passing it out. Thanks. I have you now on my special list. All are created equal....but....others BECOME more equal than others....Mr Chairman!
The Chairman part was said in jest in response to the environment of creeping nationalisation and increased state control we find ourselves living in!

Don't ever feel honoured talking to me, as I make lots of mistakes and suffer losses as well as profits. I am always learning...
  • #125,279
  • Mar 6, 2009 7:35am Mar 6, 2009 7:35am
Quoting dashboard
buy 1.4225, SL 1.4195 TP = up to u (may 1pips or ....)
Good opening for me just now.

Buy at 1.4220 closed at 1.4260. Got 800usd.
  • #125,280
  • Mar 6, 2009 7:37am Mar 6, 2009 7:37am
Quoting gammase1
I agree. It acts as a leading indicator towards future readings of CPI. These are price pressures that producers currently face, which, to a large extent, will eventually be passed onto the end consumer in the form of higher prices in the coming months. However, with consumer demand so weak, much of the cost increases from these data will be absorbed by retailer and other consumer-facing businesses, which will obviously hurt their bottom line.

On a sidenote, I posted the below opinion on the EURUSD thread in a discussion on the risks posed to...
This is all very interesting, wish i knew more about it. I focus primarily on technicals but since i love the market i like to know all i can even if i don't use them in real-time trades. Unfortunately not too many wish to discuss it that trade which is unfortunate because that is how i wish to discuss the topic. In otherwords tossing out all politics aside and discuss the raw facts and conditions that pertain to making money in the future. All too often though fundamentals are misunderstood which i think is often because of the media to prop markets. I would think economic cycles are no different that technical cycles just that they are offset to or not exactly in line with the technicals/price action is doing since most market data used in fundamentals is delayed statistics. which is another confusing aspect because it's not an efficient marketplace - nor should it be. that's where the risk lies and why trading is possible.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
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