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Galations - EUR/CHF

  • #21
  • Mar 2, 2009 6:52pm Mar 2, 2009 6:52pm
Also on that chart one can see a huge descending triangle. Price action is getting tighter, suggesting a breakout. Lower highs.

This suggests a break out to the bottom. Therefore a potential test of those mentioned support lines.
Probability Professor
  • #22
  • Mar 2, 2009 6:58pm Mar 2, 2009 6:58pm
Even though it pierces the channel line (it isn't a PERFECT channel by any means), but it still is a pretty decent channel on the 4h.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur chf.gif Size: 30 KB
Probability Professor
  • #23
  • Mar 3, 2009 2:44am Mar 3, 2009 2:44am
Quoting Galation
Even though it pierces the channel line (it isn't a PERFECT channel by any means), but it still is a pretty decent channel on the 4h.
Maibe it's time to wait for breakout?
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  • #24
  • Mar 3, 2009 4:33am Mar 3, 2009 4:33am
Interestingly this pair shows signs of popping the the 1.48 support.... so am short myself. Could be the world has woken up to the Euro being a bit of a dog and all the news of late re: Latvia and other ex-commie block countries being deep in the doo doo.

Then again if the CHF improves we could winalot (groan)
  • #25
  • Mar 3, 2009 6:14am Mar 3, 2009 6:14am
Interesting how the trend line is holding up. That price level reversal was also close to a resistance level (R1).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Probability Professor
  • #26
  • Mar 5, 2009 6:07am Mar 5, 2009 6:07am
Potentially sell on touch, or near the top of this channel. On the daily, there is still a big descending triangle, which is currently respecting the trendline.
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Probability Professor
  • #27
  • Mar 6, 2009 4:04am Mar 6, 2009 4:04am
Support 1.4600 +/- this week tested. Hesitant and long to shade below 1.97

See what happens after that.
  • #28
  • Mar 6, 2009 9:38am Mar 6, 2009 9:38am
Quoting Aesculus
Support 1.4600 +/- this week tested. Hesitant and long to shade below 1.97

See what happens after that.
Wow, that's a big target you have there Good luck with that mate!!

p.s. I presume you mean 1.47. This pair usually ranges up and down quite a bit, make sure you lock in your profits, ok!
Probability Professor
  • #29
  • Mar 17, 2009 9:59pm Mar 17, 2009 9:59pm
Yes, I did mean 1.47.... seems Swiss interest rate decision had quite an effect.Suprising as Swiss interest rates have been historically to the low side, so why expect something different ?

However, I missed the jump so am looking to short again. The jump happened quickly.. less than an hour. My take on this is simple, lots of people then piled in late (scared of missing out. A natural human failing). Maybe this is why the pair is flat ? Those who bought at the 11th hour are holding in the hope of a further rise. At some point they will change their minds and bail out, then there will be a drop.
  • #30
  • Mar 31, 2009 10:46am Mar 31, 2009 10:46am
Hey guys my first in here!
Possible bearish break down with 1st target 1.48XX over the next couple days IF daily close below 1.5150.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
  • #31
  • May 1, 2009 4:12am May 1, 2009 4:12am
congrats on the thread....i will be sure to follow yur analysis...especially with the use of trendlines

keep up the good work
  • #32
  • Jun 22, 2009 2:19pm Jun 22, 2009 2:19pm
Something you will notice when you trade this pair is that price quite often gets sucked back to the daily start, at least one point during the trading day.

As they are bother ever so similar, the volatility is often rather low, and is a nice pair to trade, as most of the time it's quite predictable.

Today price has been hovering around the 1.5060 level. In the coming days, it looks likely, from the daily trend, that a test of 1.50 is on the cards.

Exciting times!! ... well, not really! I guess making money is fun.
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Probability Professor
  • #33
  • Jun 22, 2009 2:33pm Jun 22, 2009 2:33pm
From my experience of this pair, price tends to respect support and resistance levels many times before breaking through, making trades based on support and resistance levels & whole number a fruitful affair.
Probability Professor
  • #34
  • Jun 22, 2009 2:46pm Jun 22, 2009 2:46pm
Hi galation,

we have a nice range here since middle of april, and both curencys move in perfect harmony.

We will see real wild action, if both currencys move opposite.

From my observation ranges are time of accumulation, traders are loading up position, for a break out.

This long range must lead to a realy violent eruption I think.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #35
  • Jun 22, 2009 2:52pm Jun 22, 2009 2:52pm
Quoting peaches
Hi galation,

we have a nice range here since middle of april, and both curencys move in perfect harmony.

We will see real wild action, if both currencys move opposite.

From my observation ranges are time of accumulation, traders are loading up position, for a break out.

This long range must lead to a realy violent eruption I think.
You're bang on the money, 100% right. The longer it ranges, the more positions will be added below and above the range. After that absolutely mammoth bullish breakout, price action has been ranging as you have said, in an almost bullish flag formation, however, maybe too much time has passed for a flag based trade to be valid. But as you said, there will be a big break out.

Do you trade this pair a lot? I presume those are ichimoku clouds on your charts: how well do they work for this pair?
Probability Professor
  • #36
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:04pm Jun 22, 2009 3:04pm
I know it's not safe to assume that it will break to the upside, but given that the SNB has been really serious about defending the 1,50 barrier, I would think that a break to the upside is more probable.
  • #37
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:14pm Jun 22, 2009 3:14pm
Quoting mikekneip
I know it's not safe to assume that it will break to the upside, but given that the SNB has been really serious about defending the 1,50 barrier, I would think that a break to the upside is more probable.
Yeah, there has been some very strong support at 1.50. If price does test this area again, it will be interesting to keep a close eye on how it reacts to it, as that will be a telling sign of what it may do.
Probability Professor
  • #38
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:18pm Jun 22, 2009 3:18pm
Quoting Galation
You're bang on the money, 100% right. The longer it ranges, the more positions will be added below and above the range. After that absolutely mammoth bullish breakout, price action has been ranging as you have said, in an almost bullish flag formation, however, maybe too much time has passed for a flag based trade to be valid. But as you said, there will be a big break out.

Do you trade this pair a lot? I presume those are ichimoku clouds on your charts: how well do they work for this pair?
Well, as most tarding system, it ichimoku system works best in a trending market, which is not given on the eur/chf.

But I can give you monthly ichimoku chart, which is quit simple:

Price is trading below, so called "cloud", which only means we have been in a bear market for several month. Notice how price is held down below the red line - tenkan sen called - which work as a resistance. To approach the bull marked, we need a full daily candle close above the daily cloud (I mean a candle with a nice large full body above the cloud).

Sorry, but if I look at the monthly volume, not many people are trading eur/chf, at the moment.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #39
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:26pm Jun 22, 2009 3:26pm
Quoting peaches
Well, as most tarding system, it ichimoku system works best in a trending market, which is not given on the eur/chf.

But I can give you monthly ichimoku chart, which is quit simple:

Price is trading below, so called "cloud", which only means we have been in a bear market for several month. Notice how price is held down below the red line - tenkan sen called - which work as a resistance. To approach the bull marked, we need a full daily candle close above the daily cloud (I mean a candle with a nice large full body above the cloud).

Sorry, but...
Yeah, volume of this pair is very low at the moment. I've never tried using the ichimoku cloud on a pair that didn't have the JPY, as I believe that a part of an indicators success is the amount of volume being traded through the use of the particular indicator in question. So inregards to the JPY, many professional traders use this indicator in Japan, when trading a JPY pair, therefore, price is more likely to follow the rules of the indicator. I just wasn't sure how well it would work with this pair, especially as this is an extremely ranging pair.

I like your analysis.
Probability Professor
  • #40
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:28pm Jun 22, 2009 3:28pm
all i can say to eur/chf is watch out for a spring or an upthrust, which are indications for following bull or bear run.
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