Cable Update (GBPUSD)

look this..

http://www.consultingforex.cl/images_post/emacci.png

CCI(50) ---->> bearish trend

But... EMA cross still not confirmed

Anyway... today... last day of month...
anything can happend

Today was a wild one in London as the dollar gained across the board, except for USDCAD. EURUSD faded off the Asian highs around 1.3350, down to lows in the 1.3310 in area. Cable squandered as stops were jammed starting at 1.9620 all the way down to 1.9555, where it finally put lows in around 1.9545. The pound was consolidating the past few sessions with a notable triangle formation prior to the session, Stops were destined to be gunned for on either side of the market, (...)

Cable long just now and USD/JPY long since nearly 2 days ago (2 TP-ed, 2 parts left). Well I didn't have guts to buy yen crosses across the board like you. Nice trades there!

What is the red EMA, pablo?

Well there were a lot of information about yen crosses that I shared here...

This week would be:
remaining Yen repatriation, inspiring Crosses down, short living
Fx spot starting new FY via carry trades. Crosses up

Exactly what happened.

And Equity Market mixed-to-positive helped...

But the big money is coming next week on the crosses. There are talks of billions from funds getting back to risk via carry trades from Monday on.

Red== EMA(200)

Lime== EMA(20)

Orange== EMA(34)

Yeah, you're becoming a better fundamentalist than the most so-called pros in the industry out there.

About carry trades resumption, it's being supported by techs too. USD/JPY will have its ema 20 crossing ema 100 upwards by end of month (monthly chart). Let's see man.

Btw, cable pattern shows sign of continuation downwards, but prolly might be the last one.

Well, since I cleared my charts from hundreds of fibos and trenlines and started trading what I was reading about the whole board, I improved my trading severely.

I don't make my thoughts about the market's sentiment. I just keep 2 or 3 news sources online while I trade. They are not signal providers or something, just keep me updated on WHY the moving is happening and, most important, what are the key prices where you might find S&Rs.They are proving reliable so far.

What I do is place the trade always inline with the prevailing direction (buy dips/tops, instead of scalping retracements ).

SL behind foreseable S&Rs, TP ahead of them

Things like this:

"Cable pops higher. There should be offers back into 1.9600."

=DJ FATHOM FINANCIAL: Relax, Bernanke Is In Control

Fri Mar 30 06:00:05 2007
EDT

By Danny Gabay

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The debate about the likely impact of the current
problems in the U.S. subprime mortgage market continues.

Ben Bernanke's testimony this week confirmed what many had suspected when
they saw the change in tone in the Federal Reserve Board's policy statement
released last week: Namely, that the Fed is becoming more concerned about the
prospect of a significant U.S. slowdown.

Bernanke's overall message, though, was one of calm. Neither the subprime
issue nor the prospect of a rapid unwinding of the yen carry trade is likely to
be sufficient to derail the U.S. economy.

Still, the Fed is becoming more concerned about both risks, especially the
threat that the fallout from the subprime crunch could spill over to the wider
housing market.

Hence, the apparent softening of the Fed's policy stance. The latest policy
statement replaced "the extent and timing of any additional firming," with a
discussion about "future policy adjustments," implying that these adjustments
could be up or down.

Nonetheless, as Bernanke reiterated this week, the Fed's central or
predominant concern remains inflation, not growth. And he further went out of
his way to scotch hopes for an early, let alone an immediate, rate cut, noting
that while some, like his predecessor, seem to think that economic expansions
simply die of old age, he had never seen any evidence to support that notion.

Coming back to the subprime issue, higher interest rates would almost
certainly accelerate delinquency and foreclosure rates, while lower rates might
stabilize conditions, thereby ensuring that the problems remain contained in
this niche part of the U.S. mortgage market.

The good news is that the current Fed chairman is an acknowledged expert on
this topic. Bernanke spent a significant part of his academic career thinking
and writing about the so-called credit channel - the mechanism that links the
credit market with real economic activity.

So what clues can we glean from the academic literature to which Bernanke has
made such a significant contribution?

The traditional literature suggests that the credit channel simply amplifies
the economic cycle, which itself is broadly controlled by monetary policy. In
other words, the credit channel could create larger upward and downward swings
in economic activity as policy rates rose and fell. But it would not create
those shifts on its own.

However, the more recent literature suggests that sudden changes in credit
conditions can instigate recessions and economic booms, even in the absence of
any monetary policy moves.

This literature has been given much more attention since 1998, when the
deterioration in credit conditions resulting from the Russian government's
default on its debts created a tightening of lending restrictions for corporate
borrowers.

Given the strong balance sheets of many U.S. corporations, a tightening of
corporate lending standards would today have very little impact on corporate
activity, unlike in the late 1990s when corporate leverage was high and cash
flows were low.

But of course, the credit channel can also work in the case of households via
consumer spending and through the housing market. And that is where the current
focus is.

One general conclusion of all of these new models is that any change in
monetary policy will have a greater impact at times like these than might
otherwise be the case.

But equally they suggest that a sudden re-pricing of the U.S. housing market
would be enough to trigger a nasty economic downturn, a downturn that the Fed
would have to deal with by cutting rates substantially to restore more
favorable credit conditions.

The markets, then, may be uncertain about the likely fallout from the
subprime mortgage market, but at least we can rest assured that the Fed
chairman is probably the best man to be steering the U.S. economy through these
uncertain waters.

And given that, it is worth noting that Bernanke appears to be fairly
sanguine about these credit issues.

So relax, we're in the hands of an expert.

I'll sleep a moment.. I wake up at 2am here...

So.. see you at 8am EST (waiting for US news)...

PCE .... ----> maybe cable up

Chicago PMI and Bernanke Speaks------> maybe cable down and change the trend.


I think still entry trades to monday... march was good for me, cable give me 100% profit this month....

Happy trading!!!

Good to know, pablo... It was a challenging and patience demanding week. If you profited, you did well out of this environment...

Nice weekend

Good Day

Could anyone tell me Destination of cable trend

I don't know if you mean the broad trend of today's direction.

Broad uptrend is showing signs of weakness with Feb. doji and March heading towards a second doji in a row.

With general mixed-to-weak dollar sentiment, we are likely to go on ranging for quite some time... Maybe 93s-96s.

But if you mean today's direction? Impossible to tell due to US news, end of month fixings, Yen repatriation for end of FY and carry trades, all together...

It's a hard day to trade.

I dont see him but I think he is lurking about

I love you henry carol!!!

anybody know newyork NAPM data?

ImF reports central Banks cut dollar share of reserves from 65.8%to 64.7%in the 4Q. Euro share rose 25.1% to 25.8% in 4Q

Henrycarol I knew you were around
Please call your friends and ask em to make dollar strength... your so good at it come on i know ya can!

has the majority of people here gone short on gbd/usd because of this recent data? or was it not enough to send the pair down? thanks.
Jeff