Attachments: AUD/USD

AUD/USD

#1,101
Feb 26, 2009 4:11pm Feb 26, 2009 4:11pm

pipsbull
Joined Sep 2008 | Status: happy | 735 Posts

Looking on a daily chart the breakout is comming.
The price consolidates in the triangle.
The upper red arrow show strong resistance, where there are daily 50ema, 23,6 retracement level and a trendline which holds from september. The succesfull break will bring more acceleration of the pair to the upside.
The red arrow in the bottom is a potential support level. When this is broken the pair may test the support level at 0,6 - which is like 6 years low and a big round number

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: eg.jpg
Size: 130 KB

#1,102
Feb 26, 2009 4:14pm Feb 26, 2009 4:14pm

TIckerShuffl
| Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,903 Posts

Quoting pipsbull

Disliked

Looking on a daily chart the breakout is comming.
The price consolidates in the triangle.
The upper red arrow show strong resistance, where there are daily 50ema, 23,6 retracement level and a trendline which holds from september. The succesfull break will bring more acceleration of the pair to the upside.
The red arrow in the bottom is a potential support level. When this is broken the pair may test the support level at 0,6 - which is like 6 years low and a big round number

Ignored

I agree. AUSSIE will outperform soon. I closed longs today, and will look for reentry soon. Hoping my EURO longs will spike and then will roll over into AUSSIE...that's teh plan at least. Longed a few EURAUD on scalps for some damage control on EURO volatility.

#1,103
Feb 27, 2009 4:51am Feb 27, 2009 4:51am

fammira
| Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Cesco | 1,140 Posts

AUSUSD weak today and still in range

the support area ay 0,639 - 0,641 should contain the downward pressure, since some interest to buy the dip is still noticed

brief term resistances at 0,6436 and 0,6510/ 20 should cap any potential upmove

next week RBA decision could determine the next moves.
Expectations are for a 25 bp cut.
Unchanged rates or a 50bp cut could surprise the market both ways.

#1,104
Mar 2, 2009 9:19am Mar 2, 2009 9:19am

peyman
Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,032 Posts

good bearish dv on m5 for aud! last 2 hours market note aud for risk aversion i think but now go down!

#1,105
Mar 2, 2009 1:36pm Mar 2, 2009 1:36pm

chady250
| Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Just another 21 year old amature... | 356 Posts

There may be a break of the daily trendline support on the daily chart. Hopefully we will approach the .6100 to .6000 area soon

"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."

#1,106
Mar 2, 2009 4:18pm Mar 2, 2009 4:18pm

Globalprofits
| Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Happy Aussie! | 99 Posts

Don't get ahead of yourself, cash rate decision is due out in a bit over 5 hours .

"You Can Make Money Or Excuses But You Can't Make Both!"

#1,107
Mar 2, 2009 9:43pm Mar 2, 2009 9:43pm

hantousha
| Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Trader | 53 Posts

RBA holds rate @ 3.25, I see 65.xx coming soon.... by tomorrow... This rate hold is too bullish for the AUD!!

#1,108
Mar 2, 2009 9:50pm Mar 2, 2009 9:50pm

Subdude
Joined Aug 2007 | Status: If it walks like a duck... | 1,478 Posts

Quoting hantousha

Disliked

RBA holds rate @ 3.25, I see 65.xx coming soon.... by tomorrow... This rate hold is too bullish for the AUD!!

Ignored

LOL, this is a classic bull trap - the rate hold is meaningless when the world equity market sentiment is so negative! Also, they will cut again soon anyway - just read the statement between the lines.

Every week something somewhere implodes - this week it's AIG, last week it was Citigroup, next it's automakers' turn... or something like that. AU is going to 0.61 in the next few days.

#1,109
Mar 2, 2009 10:22pm Mar 2, 2009 10:22pm

Globalprofits
| Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Happy Aussie! | 99 Posts

Quoting Subdude

Disliked

LOL, this is a classic bull trap - the rate hold is meaningless when the world equity market sentiment is so negative! Also, they will cut again soon anyway - just read the statement between the lines.

Every week something somewhere implodes - this week it's AIG, last week it was Citigroup, next it's automakers' turn... or something like that. AU is going to 0.61 in the next few days.

Ignored

I tend to agree and i wonder how much the Reserve Bank will throw at it this time when it looks like it wants to go under .60

"You Can Make Money Or Excuses But You Can't Make Both!"

#1,110
Mar 2, 2009 10:57pm Mar 2, 2009 10:57pm

fammira
| Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Cesco | 1,140 Posts

I think that RBA is setting again the tone for the rest of the market, just like it happened in October with that 100bp cut rate

Risk appetite will soon come back, equities will start to go up, and I doubt more cut will be seen.

Australian data are unexpectedly good, especially compared to the US ones, I just don't see this pair going to 0,60 indeed

#1,111
Mar 2, 2009 11:30pm Mar 2, 2009 11:30pm

Subdude
Joined Aug 2007 | Status: If it walks like a duck... | 1,478 Posts

Quoting fammira

Disliked

Risk appetite will soon come back, equities will start to go up, and I doubt more cut will be seen.

Ignored

I bet you also doubted Lehman would collapse, and GM would become insolvent. The point is - you never know just what will be the next shoe to drop anymore.

#1,112
Mar 3, 2009 1:15am Mar 3, 2009 1:15am

Globalprofits
| Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Happy Aussie! | 99 Posts

Quoting fammira

Disliked

I think that RBA is setting again the tone for the rest of the market, just like it happened in October with that 100bp cut rate

Risk appetite will soon come back, equities will start to go up, and I doubt more cut will be seen.

Australian data are unexpectedly good, especially compared to the US ones, I just don't see this pair going to 0,60 indeed

Ignored

Here is just a few things that may hurt the Aussie, remember the good figures that you talk about are false unless you think the Government can give a huge cash handout every month.

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/s...53-953,00.html

http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2505285.htm

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news...l/1448417.aspx

I think .65 to .66 is on the cards but i don't think things here in the land of Oz are as pretty as some people think.

"You Can Make Money Or Excuses But You Can't Make Both!"

#1,113
Mar 3, 2009 1:51am Mar 3, 2009 1:51am

peyman
Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,032 Posts

bearish dv M5

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: bedv.gif
Size: 16 KB

#1,114
Mar 3, 2009 2:20am Mar 3, 2009 2:20am

peyman
Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,032 Posts

ema50 make a hard resistance if break(h4 close above it) 6487 is expected

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: ema50.gif
Size: 21 KB

#1,115
Mar 3, 2009 3:29am Mar 3, 2009 3:29am

Globalprofits
| Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Happy Aussie! | 99 Posts

I don't know if it will get to the orange box this push but i think that's where we are heading, bit of resistance here to get through first.

http://i136.photobucket.com/albums/q...ofits/au38.jpg

"You Can Make Money Or Excuses But You Can't Make Both!"

#1,116
Mar 3, 2009 3:41am Mar 3, 2009 3:41am

fammira
| Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Cesco | 1,140 Posts

Quoting Globalprofits

Disliked

Here is just a few things that may hurt the Aussie, remember the good figures that you talk about are false unless you think the Government can give a huge cash handout every month.

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/s...53-953,00.html

http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2505285.htm

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news...l/1448417.aspx

I think .65 to .66 is on the cards but i don't think things here in the land of Oz are as pretty...

Ignored

I don't see a huge upside

but that's for sure much more than another potential downmove...

I also believe that 0,65 - 0,66 is next stop, equities shall eventually bounce and could take the pair closer to 0,70 before a retracement

If that will be the case, it still has to be considered as a first bounce in the big downtrend channel

#1,117
Mar 3, 2009 9:11am Mar 3, 2009 9:11am