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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #9,441
  • Mar 29, 2007 2:52am Mar 29, 2007 2:52am
Quoting Traex
? The low was at 1.9612. Didn't see any low at 9623. And 9630 is 61.8% fib of the low-high.
Todays low frm GMT 00:00 hrs was 9623
  • #9,442
  • Mar 29, 2007 2:59am Mar 29, 2007 2:59am
Another anaemic start to the European session.....25 pip range from FO to LO, followed by a lower high and a little sell off, still yesterdays range was only 20.

The last two days range have been 84 and 81....about 50 less than the current average range, so we should get an expansion soon, but earlier this month we had 3 days like this before a 180 pip day, so we might have to wait till tomorrow.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #9,443
  • Mar 29, 2007 3:09am Mar 29, 2007 3:09am
Quoting Islander
The last two days range have been 84 and 81....about 50 less than the current average range, so we should get an expansion soon, but earlier this month we had 3 days like this before a 180 pip day, so we might have to wait till tomorrow.
Past 4 months have been like this. The magic of monthly doji bars?
Tra-X
  • #9,444
  • Mar 29, 2007 3:22am Mar 29, 2007 3:22am
Quoting Traex
Past 4 months have been like this. The magic of monthly doji bars?
Yes, thanks for bringing up the potential tri star doji....theoretically it forecasts action....:-)

So far this year, there have been 3 sets of 2 days with a range < 90 and 1 with the very rare 3 days <90, all followed by a range greater than average.

Bring on the action!

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #9,445
  • Mar 29, 2007 3:26am Mar 29, 2007 3:26am
Quoting Islander
Yes, thanks for bringing up the potential tri star doji....theoretically it forecasts action....:-)

So far this year, there have been 3 sets of 2 days with a range < 90 and 1 with the very rare 3 days <90, all followed by a range greater than average.

Bring on the action!

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gif
Islander, could you post statistics on average daily range of cable by day of the week and other statistics you have? Or a site where we can get them. I only know mataf.net
  • #9,446
  • Mar 29, 2007 3:39am Mar 29, 2007 3:39am
Quoting bravado
by the way this aussie trade is not technical nor fundamental. it's purely personal.

i "urge" no one else to try it.

my idea is to show the market who is the boss.
  • #9,447
  • Mar 29, 2007 4:02am Mar 29, 2007 4:02am
Quoting TheCable
Afer Bernanke said,that inflation is still to high and with the reversal formation head and shoulders I think,that tomorrow we will til 1.32 by eur/usd and til 1.95 by the cable.
I have long usd/chf @ 1.2150 and long usd/jpy at 116.80
target points are open
GL GT
Someone don't want the euro under 1.33 ..someone big.
I am still holding usd/jpy with tp 117.68/118.18 ( 200 EMA )
Today we have to see the big move !
  • #9,448
  • Mar 29, 2007 4:22am Mar 29, 2007 4:22am
Quoting camisa
Islander, could you post statistics on average daily range of cable by day of the week and other statistics you have? Or a site where we can get them. I only know mataf.net
More than a year ago I researched a number of markets, including cable. This was all hand written in a large notebook. I did look at the ranges of the days of the week to see if a "Larry Williams" methodogy could be applied to cable and at that time I concluded that it could not.

With more experience, I believe that I needed to take into account the effects of news / data announcements, how much they varied from the forecast and their effect on that days range.

My notes of the daily range etc, now confined to cable, continue to be hand written, so I am unable to help. If you do find a site with such info, please let me know.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #9,449
  • Mar 29, 2007 4:26am Mar 29, 2007 4:26am
Quoting TheCable
Someone don't want the euro under 1.33 ..someone big.
I am still holding usd/jpy with tp 117.68/118.18 ( 200 EMA )
Today we have to see the big move !
There were reports y'day of one large German bank sitting at 3370, though. This is making Euro trading a lousy work for several, several days already.

I'm also long UJ and GJ yet. mid-231s / low 232 in the minimum for today. But I'm jump out of UJ at 118.25 if getting there... offers at 118.35 was those who started the selloff to mid 116.
  • #9,450
  • Mar 29, 2007 4:41am Mar 29, 2007 4:41am
I just don't get it ..31 March is the end of the diskal year in Japan.We have to see a new bottom,before going up for new highs.Are we entering a new range ?
  • #9,451
  • Mar 29, 2007 4:46am Mar 29, 2007 4:46am
Quoting TheCable
I just don't get it ..31 March is the end of the diskal year in Japan.We have to see a new bottom,before going up for new highs.Are we entering a new range ?
i received this yesterday 21:15 GMT:

Quote
[DLR/YEN] y/day did 1 way trip to south from 118.00 in our time to 116.38 in NY. Yen buying on FY-end repatriation and Eur bonds redemption, and Dlr sales on geopolitical risk, Bernanke's testimony (mostly consistent with FOMC statement) led US stocks/bonds weakness under stagflation worries and weak Feb US DGO, and some carry trade unwinding under risk reduction operations, etc are the drivers. From tdy FX spot value enters into the new FY, so general expectations are Yen sales resumes from private and institutional investors via carry trade, Toshin set-up, foreign allocation, etc would gradually pick up. (...)
  • #9,452
  • Mar 29, 2007 5:04am Mar 29, 2007 5:04am
stoploss at 117.00 20 pips profit in worst case.
GL GT
  • #9,453
  • Mar 29, 2007 5:07am Mar 29, 2007 5:07am
nzd/usd - two reversal formations - h&s - 4h and evening star - daily.
Technical this could be the end of the uptrend.
  • #9,454
  • Mar 29, 2007 5:16am Mar 29, 2007 5:16am
Quoting TheCable
nzd/usd - two reversal formations - h&s - 4h and evening star - daily.
Technical this could be the end of the uptrend.
H&S and failure at historical 7200. May be a good opportunity.

Upcoming NZ GDP today may favour the upside, though... I'll be watching this...

Thanks for bringing it up...
  • #9,455
  • Mar 29, 2007 5:36am Mar 29, 2007 5:36am
It's possible that EUR/GBP current uptrend might resume until at least 0.7500 long term. For USD/JPY, longterm uptrend might continue until 150.00? lol I think I'm going crazy.
Tra-X
  • #9,456
  • Mar 29, 2007 6:14am Mar 29, 2007 6:14am
just closed my long @ 641 for BE. As disappointed as I was with the stagnation in movement I suppose it's better than a 15 pip hit. Now let's watch the Pound sail all the way to $2 whilst I'm out today.
  • #9,457
  • Mar 29, 2007 8:12am Mar 29, 2007 8:12am
bottom picking still favoured.


Cable got hit and tested near the 1.9615 area twice but held. We hear there are decent bids near the lows for now. If we can not get back above the highs soon we could see those bids filled and then posibly stops run through the 1.9595/00 area.
  • #9,458
  • Mar 29, 2007 8:17am Mar 29, 2007 8:17am
Quoting cesarnc
bottom picking still favoured.


Cable got hit and tested near the 1.9615 area twice but held. We hear there are decent bids near the lows for now. If we can not get back above the highs soon we could see those bids filled and then posibly stops run through the 1.9595/00 area.
Cable remains inside its triangle. Favorable breakout direction is upwards, just watch out for false downside break.
Tra-X
  • #9,459
  • Mar 29, 2007 8:25am Mar 29, 2007 8:25am
Here is a triange on the 15 min chart and has just recently tested the the support line of the triangle. Because the pound has been in such a range the past two days which way to think it'll go? I believe that it will probably break to the up side and then will test the 9720's at which point it will make a sharp reversal to the 9550's. Any thoughts?
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  • #9,460
  • Mar 29, 2007 8:44am Mar 29, 2007 8:44am
I think we should hit 1.9550 but I can't figure out if we are going up to 1.9720 first. Iran says they are not going to release any of the hostages now not even the women. I don't know what to think.
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