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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #124,081
  • Feb 28, 2009 12:01am Feb 28, 2009 12:01am
Quoting Forbes55
he did it right and will be rich on Monday
how this damn pound resist, it will fall and fall deeper!

Not to criticize but I tend to listen when EO says something as he knows what he is doing!

He is right more than wrong
  • #124,082
  • Feb 28, 2009 1:25am Feb 28, 2009 1:25am
probably up... do not ask me how do i know?If fall down.. doesn't matter becoz i'm already close all trade..Just wait and see...
Never look for past.. always beyond the boundary
  • #124,083
  • Feb 28, 2009 2:31am Feb 28, 2009 2:31am
sleeping greenpips *muach* gbpusd.. you are genius! my trailing stop touched when I'm sleep!
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  • #124,084
  • Edited 6:13am Feb 28, 2009 2:45am | Edited 6:13am
Quoting eohater
I hope your sell button doesn't get you in trouble over the weekend! My 1h candle is shaping up for a move north. I know it's end of the day, but I wouldn't hold a position into the new month over the weekend, no matter how big the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow looked.

Good luck!
i agree...that support wont be broken lightly..i see 1.45 on the cards
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  • #124,085
  • Feb 28, 2009 7:29am Feb 28, 2009 7:29am
Quoting davids
Not to criticize but I tend to listen when EO says something as he knows what he is doing!

He is right more than wrong
Wormbory knows what he's doing and the risk he's willing to take. I personally do not hold positions over the weekend. There's always a new seat. Regardless of being right or wrong, I'll find a seat once the market gets back underway. I'm just light hearted joking with Wormboy and his sell button. He's sold the hell outta the pound last week and made some great pippage. I sold her and bought her and made positive pippage all around. His sell point is a good area to have sold. If I had to hold a position over the weekend, it would have been short.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #124,086
  • Feb 28, 2009 9:02am Feb 28, 2009 9:02am
This past week the PA stayed below the 1.4400 zone which I feel is a strong Resistance for now...I believe the GU PA will test the 1.4100 lows again.

If the 1.4100 zone gives away, than downward trend is confirm toward the 1.3500 support since 1986.

All fundamentals are negative and the PA of both GU and GJ is technically bearish so my bias for this week is BEARISH.

Maybe Sunday or Monday GU PA will pullback to the 1.4100 zone again and consolidate until thursday for the GU rate decision.

IMHO..

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  • #124,087
  • Feb 28, 2009 9:36am Feb 28, 2009 9:36am
Quoting rgitt05
This past week the PA stayed below the 1.4400 zone which I feel is a strong Resistance for now...I believe the GU PA will test the 1.4100 lows again.

If the 1.4100 zone gives away, than downward trend is confirm toward the 1.3500 support since 1986.

All fundamentals are negative and the PA of both GU and GJ is technically bearish so my bias for this week is BEARISH.

Maybe Sunday or Monday GU PA will pullback to the 1.4100 zone again and consolidate until thursday for the GU rate decision.

IMHO..



I agree with your opinion that GU will continue bearish maybe till 4100 thats for sure, if it broke past support will continue to 3776...
  • #124,088
  • Feb 28, 2009 1:28pm Feb 28, 2009 1:28pm
According to 2002 daily chart when GBPUSD drop to 1.36++, it dropped 5 times to 1.41++ and then its going up and never going back to this point again, it may repeat the same pattern, but how knows? so be careful on ur short position................
  • #124,089
  • Feb 28, 2009 1:40pm Feb 28, 2009 1:40pm
ops sorry 2001 chart, or maybe it also could be using on how many month its after it dropped then its go up 2, may be
  • #124,090
  • Feb 28, 2009 11:11pm Feb 28, 2009 11:11pm
The overall trend on the GU maybe down, but I'm generally cautious that a Equities rally will quickly push it up. The market was moving sideways on friday, but the pound recovered much of its losses.
  • #124,091
  • Mar 1, 2009 1:48am Mar 1, 2009 1:48am
Quoting rgitt05
This past week the PA stayed below the 1.4400 zone which I feel is a strong Resistance for now...I believe the GU PA will test the 1.4100 lows again.

If the 1.4100 zone gives away, than downward trend is confirm toward the 1.3500 support since 1986.

All fundamentals are negative and the PA of both GU and GJ is technically bearish so my bias for this week is BEARISH.

Maybe Sunday or Monday GU PA will pullback to the 1.4100 zone again and consolidate until thursday for the GU rate decision.

IMHO..

just agree!!
K.I.S.S -> Keep It Super Simple...
  • #124,092
  • Mar 1, 2009 5:11am Mar 1, 2009 5:11am
well, i do agree with u but. on thing we all should know is that with the highist high of 2.11*** that we saw last , this might even lead us to 1.2750. but u have to be very careful.it might only go there for once and that will be the end of bear for months to come. i don`t know if is true or not.

Quoting cili82
just agree!!
  • #124,093
  • Mar 1, 2009 5:31am Mar 1, 2009 5:31am
Remember that GJ is bearish at the moment so it will pull GU down also based on the technical charts and fundamentals.

Look at the 4hr GU Chart...(Consolidation 1.4090< X < 1.4660)

It is ready for a breakout( Overall trend is bearish)

The zig zag is still pointing down (Red line) and it is still holding below the 50ema(green line)

The 1.4100 is a strong support at the moment and PA may test the lows again.


Look at the GU daily chart (Consolidation for breakout from the wedge)

Three times the daily candle tried to break above the 50ema(greenline) and failed and now PA will try to test the lows again at 1.4100 which at the moment is a strong support since the beginning of the Feb.'09.

You can see in the pass the Price Action(PA) tried three times to break above the 50 ema(greenline) and pullback to a lower level but now a wedge is forming a blue triangle and it is consolidating for breakout..

Since I am a GJ trader as well, GU will go up overall since GJ is technically bullish long term

At this moment the lows will be test again at 1.4100 and probably reverse since no significant news out until thursday (GU rate decision)

IMHO.

Good Luck..









Quoting kalparker
The overall trend on the GU maybe down, but I'm generally cautious that a Equities rally will quickly push it up. The market was moving sideways on friday, but the pound recovered much of its losses.
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  • #124,094
  • Mar 1, 2009 6:02am Mar 1, 2009 6:02am
Quoting rgitt05
Remember that GJ is bearish at the moment so it will pull GU down also based on the technical charts and fundamentals.

Look at the 4hr GU Chart...(Consolidation 1.4090< X < 1.4660)

It is ready for a breakout( Overall trend is bearish)

The zig zag is still pointing down (Red line) and it is still holding below the 50ema(green line)

The 1.4100 is a strong support at the moment and PA may test the lows again.


Look at the GU daily chart (Consolidation for breakout from the wedge)

Three times the daily candle tried to break above...
i do agree with u however inorder to speculate a further drop u need a monthly chart to add weight to this theory..look at the small body of the previous month and also back looking at history..recovery was made at these levels...i believe a test of the support will happen but we gonna range here because i believe theres a balance of supply and demand...i will be looking for sign of trend change - the risk reward for further down is to high in my view...anyways i will trade whatever i see

goodluck all...i will be away for a week..trade safe
  • #124,095
  • Mar 1, 2009 6:49am Mar 1, 2009 6:49am
down pressure still seems very strong to me. The fact we're in that rather large channel, and that the 4100 appears like the base of a descending triangle, makes me think we're set for a further fall still
  • #124,096
  • Mar 1, 2009 10:59am Mar 1, 2009 10:59am
Quoting nAVIN2007
i do agree with u however inorder to speculate a further drop u need a monthly chart to add weight to this theory..look at the small body of the previous month and also back looking at history..recovery was made at these levels...i believe a test of the support will happen but we gonna range here because i believe theres a balance of supply and demand...i will be looking for sign of trend change - the risk reward for further down is to high in my view...anyways i will trade whatever i see

goodluck all...i will be away for a week..trade safe
Nice one Navin

I've been doing some research too and have come to a similar conclusion, the risk to reward ratio doesnt look good for short positions. The longer time frames are certainly pointing to at least some sort of pull back, historical data backs this up too. Cable is heavily correlated to the Dow at the moment, if we get a little bit of good news then this could spark a rally upto the Jan high of 1.5362. There is also a weekly downtrendline which currently comes into play at 1.5000 area and that could put a dampener on any rallys.

Have a good week everyone!
  • #124,097
  • Mar 1, 2009 11:13am Mar 1, 2009 11:13am
We see an Inverse Heads & Shoulders in Formation on GU on 1H Chart. Also a Triangle inside this formation is seen. Possibility of upwards movement is reasonably higher.
But ideally draw this trend lines & watch out for breakouts for Good Gains. Holding period may be for a few days after breakouts.
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  • #124,098
  • Mar 1, 2009 12:36pm Mar 1, 2009 12:36pm
Happy trading
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  • #124,099
  • Mar 1, 2009 1:15pm Mar 1, 2009 1:15pm
A 30 pip stop would have held 12 of the last 13 times........ if a bounce was confirmed with candle formation on the 5m and 15m chart.

As usual hesitation and indecision keeps me from untold riches.

I just started watching the 4h chart this close. I don't think you can blindly enter when the signal is generated and trading skills play an important part in working this setup but I will be watching this pattern for the rest of this week.

Anybody have any comments on this set up?
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  • #124,100
  • Mar 1, 2009 1:36pm Mar 1, 2009 1:36pm
I have no idea where cable is going this week but I am thinking the 1st 70 degree spring day in NY the Dow will rally and so will cable....

However, we are expecting a Blizzard on the east coast in the next day or so.

My weather indicator is pointing south...same direction I wish I was going. This long cold winter sucks!
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