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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #122,741
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:03am Feb 23, 2009 8:03am
Quoting JammerJams
my immediate short may not be hit soon..but if it does..looking at nice quick move downward...hitting 4430 level is a bit past 61.8% fib...

also...nice resistence there..
Could you please clarify TF and points for Fibs? I am still confused with it.
Every time I have doubts which point is starting one.
Maybe you can attached chart with your fibs. Thanks
  • #122,742
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:07am Feb 23, 2009 8:07am
Quoting Professor4x
Since fundamentals have drasticallly changed in past 10 trading days in japan the jpy which people were buying because of a safe haven due to their trillions in dollar reserves the jpy has been going down. Since the pair is an indirect pair to usd it means a down move is a strenghting move for jpy. But as of last week due to the worse growth figures reported of any nation and losing over 12% growth on gbp for quarter capital is making an exodus from yen and now heading back to europe. So with the selling of jpy nad buying of gbp it's cause all jpy...
Do you understand the difference between a direct pair and indirect pair. All pairs have two compenents. Base/ Counter currency. Eur/Usd is an example of direct pair because its price movement is directly related to strength or weaking of usd(U.S. Dollar). Usd/Jpy is an example of indirect pair because she goes exactly opposite to dollar weakness and strength. So on indirect pairs dollar is getting weaker as pair goes down and on direct pairs dollar is getting weaker when pair goes north. If you look at all pairs the BASE = 1. That means its the counter in the pair which is the variable.
  • #122,743
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:08am Feb 23, 2009 8:08am
Quoting Professor4x
Since fundamentals have drasticallly changed in past 10 trading days in japan the jpy which people were buying because of a safe haven due to their trillions in dollar reserves the jpy has been going down. Since the pair is an indirect pair to usd it means a down move is a straighting move for jpy. But as of last week due to the worse growth figures reported of any nation and losing over 12% growth on gbp for quarter capital is making an exodus from yen and now heading back to Europe. So with the selling of JP nad buying of gbp it's cause all jpy...
Hay Prof...will the nationalization of Bank of America and Citi Bank be good or bad for the dollar in today's climate?
  • #122,744
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:10am Feb 23, 2009 8:10am
Good talk prof....please prof..are we expecting Abuawads 3rd missionary journey?
  • #122,745
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:13am Feb 23, 2009 8:13am
Possible breakout soon. But with the uptrend channel(M15) with a resistance @ .4615, and a triangle(which presenltly signald a move in few minutes), no clear direction. Maybe i will use my coin now...or wait for a close....mmmmh! Let me see.
  • #122,746
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:14am Feb 23, 2009 8:14am
Quoting Shilva
Hay Prof...will the nationalization of Bank of America and Citi Bank be good or bad for the dollar in today's climate?
Totally bad for dollar because it represents a complete colloapse of our financial system and that is normally first step in the devalution process of any currency. So world will sell dollars expecting much worse scenerio for dollar. Short dollars is place to be and that is why i only short dollars on gbp because even though be lose once in a while the sentiment that creates trend will get dollar bearish as things move forward from week to week. This is a finanical system that is broken and need complete overhaul to sustain economic growth but it will take years and not month to restructure. Look at your bollinger bands and stoc's on monthly chart of every major pair and notice where the hband is showing as new range. They all indicate all time lows against dollar moving forward so that is why my fundamentals coming out are expected to get worse. Techs always tell the story and even when emotion takes market in a direction of techs the techs always come back to line. Forex is 10% fundamentals and 90% technical.
  • #122,747
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:16am Feb 23, 2009 8:16am
Quoting Professor4x
Since fundamentals have drasticallly changed in past 10 trading days in japan the jpy which people were buying because of a safe haven due to their trillions in dollar reserves the jpy has been going down. Since the pair is an indirect pair to usd it means a down move is a strenghting move for jpy. But as of last week due to the worse growth figures reported of any nation and losing over 12% growth on gbp for quarter capital is making an exodus from yen and now heading back to europe. So with the selling of jpy nad buying of gbp it's cause all jpy...
okay... thanks for this info...wowowee... if GBP / JPY goes to 170 then GBP / USD looks ripe for 150 !!! awsome news, prof !!
  • #122,748
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:18am Feb 23, 2009 8:18am
Quoting blurrcow
okay... thanks for this info...wowowee... if GBP / JPY goes to 170 then GBP / USD looks ripe for 150 !!! awsome news, prof !!
You realize 170 is 3200 pips from here on gbp/jpy. When your looking for a big score to hit the market it's not a bad idea to throw the smallest postion you trade and use a 1000 pip stop and 3000 pip target because done properly it represents a 10% downside and 30% upside on 1:1
  • #122,749
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:20am Feb 23, 2009 8:20am
Quoting Komissar
Could you please clarify TF and points for Fibs? I am still confused with it.
Every time I have doubts which point is starting one.
Maybe you can attached chart with your fibs. Thanks
Heres my current fib levels plotted on the 1 hr. I also sometimes use yesterdays retracement fib levels taking the previous days high and low. I mostly use the 1 hr for my fib levels unless it is not clear what day the high and low fell on. Then in that situation I will check on the lower time frames. But as the previous full days trading was Friday I wont be using them today.

Some people will have plotted this differently all the way upto 1.5716 on the 17th of Dec. But this is how I have drawn mine.

Hope this helps a little
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fibs.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #122,750
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:22am Feb 23, 2009 8:22am
Quoting PipLand
Heres my current fib levels plotted on the 1 hr. I also sometimes use yesterdays retracement fib levels taking the previous days high and low. I mostly use the 1 hr for my fib levels unless it is not clear what day the high and low fell on. Then in that situation I will check on the lower time frames. But as the previous full days trading was Friday I wont be using them today.

Some people will have plotted this differently all the way upto 1.5716 on the 17th of Dec. But this is how I have drawn mine.

Hope this helps a little
a better pic
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4fibs.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #122,751
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:32am Feb 23, 2009 8:32am
Quoting Professor4x
Totally bad for dollar because it represents a complete colloapse of our financial system and that is normally first step in the devalution process of any currency. So world will sell dollars expecting much worse scenerio for dollar. Short dollars is place to be and that is why i only short dollars on gbp because even though be lose once in a while the sentiment that creates trend will get dollar bearish as things move forward from week to week. This is a finanical system that is broken and need complete overhaul to sustain economic growth but it...
Order in the CLASS! STOP claping and SHOUTINg! ...Order pls. Let the Prof speak pls. ANY MORE QUESTIONS?
  • #122,752
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:33am Feb 23, 2009 8:33am
Quoting PipLand
a better pic
Thanks a lot. But I have another question.
You plotted your Fibs starting Jan 6. It's over 45 days history. In all books and forums I saw 1h Fibs going back about week, maybe a little more. Is it a good scale for 45 days in 1H chart?
  • #122,753
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:37am Feb 23, 2009 8:37am
Hey prof.. just looking at the calendar for this week... with the UK publishing their GDP numbers on Wed.. what do you this the outlook will be and how will it likely impact the cable ??
  • #122,754
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:40am Feb 23, 2009 8:40am
professor4x : are you in a trade atm? If you are, what is your bias and why? Thanks.
Thank You
  • #122,755
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:44am Feb 23, 2009 8:44am
Quoting Komissar
Thanks a lot. But I have another question.
You plotted your Fibs starting Jan 6. It's over 45 days history. In all books and forums I saw 1h Fibs going back about week, maybe a little more. Is it a good scale for 45 days in 1H chart?
I dont have a set rule for how far back I plot a fib. I plot them according to what I view as the last big move. I also combine this with the previous days fib levels. Ive seen fibs plotted much further back than this. The fib levels that I have plotted on my graph appear to work quite well. Some people will have the 4980 - 4090 move plotted out. I choose not to have those levels
  • #122,756
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:52am Feb 23, 2009 8:52am
Looks like we could be getting ready for the first test of the trendline, if its broken I have 1.4440 as the first target
  • #122,757
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:53am Feb 23, 2009 8:53am
Quoting PipLand
I dont have a set rule for how far back I plot a fib. I plot them according to what I view as the last big move. I also combine this with the previous days fib levels. Ive seen fibs plotted much further back than this. The fib levels that I have plotted on my graph appear to work quite well. Some people will have the 4980 - 4090 move plotted out. I choose not to have those levels
OK, if follow to your Fibs, GU is still in downtrend. just for now it's another retracement, 35XX (100%) is still visible, right?
  • #122,758
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:55am Feb 23, 2009 8:55am
Quoting PipLand
Looks like we could be getting ready for the first test of the trendline, if its broken I have 1.4440 as the first target
Pip, which trendline are you referring to? All I have is the 4600 level to be breached for a bias change. Otherwise it's still down for me.
Thank You
  • #122,759
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:59am Feb 23, 2009 8:59am
Quoting Komissar
OK, if follow to your Fibs, GU is still in downtrend. just for now it's another retracement, 35XX is still visible, right?
Correct that is my opinion, ofcourse I could be wrong.

GU is definatly Basing so we do have to consider that it might not be far from a recovery, and for this reason I have reduced my position sizes. I have done this for most pairs too as a lot of long term trends are currently being tested across the board
  • #122,760
  • Feb 23, 2009 9:02am Feb 23, 2009 9:02am
Quoting wormboy
Pip, which trendline are you referring to? All I have is the 4600 level to be breached for a bias change. Otherwise it's still down for me.
Hope this helps
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tredny.gif Size: 74 KB
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