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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #121,981
  • Feb 19, 2009 1:55pm Feb 19, 2009 1:55pm
Quoting jack.canadia
Oh its Harper too!
I understand he won the re-election by default since noone in Canada voted. Is this true?
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #121,982
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:03pm Feb 19, 2009 2:03pm
I was just wondering, I notice dollar weakens when equities markets rise, gains value when they fall. Does anyone notice this or adjust for it?
  • #121,983
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:05pm Feb 19, 2009 2:05pm
Quoting eohater
I understand he won the re-election by default since noone in Canada voted. Is this true?
To be honest, I do not follow Canadian politics as much as I follow US politics. I live so close to the border that all news channels I watch are US based.

I know he was re-elected but by how I am unsure.
  • #121,984
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:07pm Feb 19, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting kalparker
I was just wondering, I notice dollar weakens when equities markets rise, gains value when they fall. Does anyone notice this or adjust for it?
The rules change frequently - a month ago, every time the DOW went up, so did cable

just when you get used to that, it goes inverse


its all this 'safe' currency stuff - then when everyone feels safe , different rules apply

Also, they march together to the split second at the mo... a couple of years ago the DOW would move and then cable 20 seconds later - that was nice - but these relationships are fleeting and catch me out as much as predict
  • #121,985
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:21pm Feb 19, 2009 2:21pm
Quoting allserene
The rules change frequently - a month ago, every time the DOW went up, so did cable

just when you get used to that, it goes inverse


its all this 'safe' currency stuff - then when everyone feels safe , different rules apply

Also, they march together to the split second at the mo... a couple of years ago the DOW would move and then cable 20 seconds later - that was nice - but these relationships are fleeting and catch me out as much as predict
It was explained to me somewhere. I forget.

Everyone fled to cash during the crisis, as this was safer then to own stocks or mutuals during a crashing market. So, the demand for US cash increased and as such the price went up (USD got stronger). As people want more USD cash, they are exchanging in other currencies (longing USD and shorting its counter) for USD, increasing the supply of the other currency. An increase in supply of something lowers its price. As such, E/U and G/U fell. For example, since the demand was so high for USD, traders, firms, banks etc. began supplying the market with other currency to own USD cash.

With regards to the DOW. Selling in the DOW means more USD cash is coming out of the equity market. So demand for USD cash increases and as such GBP/USD falls (since the price of USD has to rise). As the DOW increases, all that supply of USD cash starts flowing back into equities, decreasing the demand for USD cash, lowering its price (GBP/USD goes up).

Hope this helps and isn't too foggy. This is why I will often post a Dow chart or talk about it.
  • #121,986
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:38pm Feb 19, 2009 2:38pm
I am looking for a weekly/monthly pivot point indicator thats functions similar to the daily one on my chart. If you have could you please post?! Thanks!
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  • #121,987
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:42pm Feb 19, 2009 2:42pm
I'm starting to drool at the possiblities of today's daily close.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #121,988
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:43pm Feb 19, 2009 2:43pm
Quoting jack.canadia
It was explained to me somewhere. I forget.

Everyone fled to cash during the crisis, as this was safer then to own stocks or mutuals during a crashing market. So, the demand for US cash increased and as such the price went up (USD got stronger). As people want more USD cash, they are exchanging in other currencies (longing USD and shorting its counter) for USD, increasing the supply of the other currency. An increase in supply of something lowers its price. As such, E/U and G/U fell. For example, since the demand was so high for USD, traders,...
But for the last few weeks at least, every time the DOW goes up, cable goes up too... that's because american investors feel it's all going to be alright and they can let money flow back to the outer parts of the empire.

Then the DOW falls (like today) and so does cable as Americans get scared and repatriate USD

Anyway it's all a bit academic as they walk in tandem one way or the other - if there was a lag we could use it, but i dont see a split second lag because that would be too easy - like having a time machine

I reckon the DOw is going to go down to 7000 and cable will fall too just because of the fear factor
  • #121,989
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:44pm Feb 19, 2009 2:44pm
Talking about the dow, it just made a lower low... testing last one.

It's a beautilfull world!....

-----------------

about canadian politics all other groups had vote against the budget, Harper did another one that been accepted... if the vote would not pass, then we would had get into election again...

long short story
  • #121,990
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:44pm Feb 19, 2009 2:44pm
Bloody hell, cable almost had me today. Glad that's over & it's back down.
Anyone else in short?
Thank You
  • #121,991
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:45pm Feb 19, 2009 2:45pm
Quoting eohater
I'm starting to drool at the possiblities of today's daily close.
Is someone feeling a bit bearish...
  • #121,992
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:45pm Feb 19, 2009 2:45pm
Quoting allserene
But for the last few weeks at least, every time the DOW goes up, cable goes up too... that's because american investors feel it's all going to be alright and they can let money flow back to the outer parts of the empire.

Then the DOW falls (like today) and so does cable as Americans get scared and repatriate USD

Anyway it's all a bit academic as they walk in tandem one way or the other - if there was a lag we could use it, but i dont see a split second lag because that would be too easy - like having a time machine

I reckon the DOw is going...
I think at this point, the DOW is going to 6000. 7800 has already given way and 7500 hasn't given much of a fight.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #121,993
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:47pm Feb 19, 2009 2:47pm
Quoting jack.canadia
Is someone feeling a bit bearish...
Oh yeah! I haven't let up the bearish feeling, but as you saw yesterday and anyday for that matter, I don't have a problem being long.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #121,994
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:48pm Feb 19, 2009 2:48pm
Quoting eohater
I think at this point, the DOW is going to 6000. 7800 has already given way and 7500 hasn't given much of a fight.
I wouldn't doubt that comment.
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  • #121,995
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:51pm Feb 19, 2009 2:51pm
5-0 pattern on any TF.
Would lead us to a correction around 1.4379

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_MRDiiyT5LM...%2BPattern.gif
  • #121,996
  • Feb 19, 2009 3:02pm Feb 19, 2009 3:02pm
Quoting Inzider
5-0 pattern on any TF.
Would lead us to a correction around 1.4379

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_MRDiiyT5LM...%2BPattern.gif
If you don't mind to explain....what is a 5-0 pattern?
  • #121,997
  • Feb 19, 2009 3:04pm Feb 19, 2009 3:04pm
Quoting eohater
I think at this point, the DOW is going to 6000. 7800 has already given way and 7500 hasn't given much of a fight.
yes i reckon so too - Cramer was wrong calling a bottom a few weeks ago - and his top pick hewlett fell 8% today

good job my pension is in payment and guaranteed 100% by the UK govt

I feel sorry for the rest who havent realised yet what happens to annuity rates in a 0% interest environment - and thats worked on a fund thats down 50% anyway

I am 37% shares - lots of oil - and holding out for 6500 Dow before I go for it

cable is miles too high
  • #121,998
  • Feb 19, 2009 3:09pm Feb 19, 2009 3:09pm
GBP-USD hit the 50% fibo at 1.4271. Next downside target is at 61.8 fibo 1.4218. Upside is at 32.8 fibo at 1.4314
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  • #121,999
  • Feb 19, 2009 3:09pm Feb 19, 2009 3:09pm
making first a triangle on a base, then extension over the high of it, then return on the top for an 0.618% correction or more of last move.

We are now at 50% of last larger move.

---------------

its only a pattern, its not the truth.
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Click to Enlarge Name: 5-0 exemple.jpg Size: 146 KB
  • #122,000
  • Feb 19, 2009 3:09pm Feb 19, 2009 3:09pm
Hi guys I am short at 4275, TP 4175, SL 4375

will try to post charts tonight; pretty busy these couple of days
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