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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #101
  • Mar 25, 2007 5:35pm Mar 25, 2007 5:35pm
Quoting Igrok
I guess so. It looks pretty normal to me with its activity being reasonably distributed on the time scale inside a trading day. This means that you can sleep during Asian hours and begin working when Europe steps in. That time back in 1999 you could do the same in just a few hours on Asia and then turn the monitor off and do something better than just watching the grass growing and the paint drying.
Terrific. It doesn't look trivial to me that out of six possible combinations of the sessions when highs and lows are made (Asia-Asia, as in 1999; Europe-Europe; NY-NY; Asia-Europe; Asia-NY; Europe-NY), only two are currently predominant.

You know, for me such seemingly obvious things are a revelation. As you have said in the past, most obvious things go unnoticed. You're helping me to eliminate more and more blind spots from my market vision...
sans peur et sans reproche
  • #102
  • Mar 26, 2007 7:21am Mar 26, 2007 7:21am
Igrok, I have hard time spotting #18.4, which you call your favorite. Could the Cable picture be considered a 18.4 now? Thanks.
sans peur et sans reproche
  • #103
  • Mar 26, 2007 7:30am Mar 26, 2007 7:30am
Quoting ilanr
Igrok, I have hard time spotting #18.4, which you call your favorite. Could the Cable picture be considered a 18.4 now? Thanks.
Yes, it is on Cable. But I wouldn't take this position because the main move of the day is in USD favor on all the other majors.
  • #104
  • Mar 26, 2007 7:54am Mar 26, 2007 7:54am
Quoting Igrok
Yes, it is on Cable. But I wouldn't take this position because the main move of the day is in USD favor on all the other majors.
Great. Thank you.
sans peur et sans reproche
  • #105
  • Mar 26, 2007 8:43pm Mar 26, 2007 8:43pm
Igrok,

Do u adjust yr day start since now is daylight saving time ?
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #106
  • Mar 26, 2007 9:41pm Mar 26, 2007 9:41pm
Quoting compro99
Igrok,

Do u adjust yr day start since now is daylight saving time ?
It has been adjusted automatically. I can see it at one glance because on my charting system all intraday bars of one full day are getting painted in different colours than those from the previous day. Very convenient for my method indeed.
  • #107
  • Mar 27, 2007 4:11pm Mar 27, 2007 4:11pm
For me, one of the most useful elements of the Igrok method is the use of Average Daily Trading Ranges (ADTR). If it was possible to predict the magnitude of today's range, our trading could be an easier task. I did some statistics on Cable to see, whether it was possible. Here are the results.

First, the ADTR's vary by year. It seems that there are cycles of higher and lower volatility. Below are ADTR's since 1995:

1995 157
1996 106
1997 151
1998 144
1999 116
2000 133
2001 119
2002 103
2003 135
2004 178
2005 146

2006 138

2007 130

Second, there are systematic differences in volatility between weekdays, Monday being the least volatile (now I know, why I hate Mondays), Friday the most volatile. Below are data for 2005-2007:
average median
mon 134 123
tue 136 128
wed 142 129
thu 144 133
fri 148 134

(median is the value that half of the days have range lower than it, and half have range that is higher. The averages above are higher than medians, which means that there are some days with extremely high ranges, but only few days with extremely low ranges).

Finally, I checked, if there is any relationship between ranges of two consecutive days. The results showed that there is no way to predict the ranges on Mondays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays basing on the ranges of previous days. However, if a Tuesday range was narrow (below median), then there are 60% chances that on Wednesday the range will also be narrow. Same about Thursdays and Fridays: a narrow range on Thursday means 60% chances of having a narrow range on the next day.

sans peur et sans reproche
  • #108
  • Edited 5:17pm Mar 27, 2007 5:06pm | Edited 5:17pm
Quoting ilanr
For me, one of the most useful elements of the Igrok method is the use of Average Daily Trading Ranges (ADTR). If it was possible to predict the magnitude of today's range, our trading could be an easier task. I did some statistics on Cable to see, whether it was possible.
You made a very good research. It should be helpful. Thanks a lot. However, there are simple explanations why Mondays are having relatively narrow ranges and Fridays have the biggest ones. It is because the news releases are distributed unevenly over the course of the week. It would be even more effective not just to compare same days of the week but also to tie up those daily ranges to the news calendar. For example it might make sense to put every first Friday of every month in the league of its own and compare those ranges only between themselves because these are the days when monthly US employment numbers get released.
Also I would like to remind you that the same approach would work for different time frames. Besides ADTR there are average weekly, montly and yearly ranges can be calculated in order to be used for the purpose of projecting medimum to longer-term targets. I would also recommend you to make some statistical research on those periods as well.
  • #109
  • Mar 27, 2007 5:20pm Mar 27, 2007 5:20pm
Quoting Igrok
It would be even more effective not just to compare same days of the week but also to tie up those daily ranges to the news calendar.
Yes, it's definitely interesting to see, whether the differences between the weekdays exist only due to the news. I suspect it's not only the news. I'll check, whether it's possible to segregate news from non-news days using a computer program.
sans peur et sans reproche
  • #110
  • Mar 27, 2007 9:43pm Mar 27, 2007 9:43pm
Igrok,

I would like to know your current thoughts on the USD/JPY. I'm not sure you've mentioned your longer term view on the Yen anywhere, but besides that, to me there is a clear triangle pattern being formed on the daily. Would you agree?
  • #111
  • Mar 27, 2007 11:35pm Mar 27, 2007 11:35pm
Quoting Blackinc
Igrok,

I would like to know your current thoughts on the USD/JPY. I'm not sure you've mentioned your longer term view on the Yen anywhere, but besides that, to me there is a clear triangle pattern being formed on the daily. Would you agree?
It might look like a potential traingle but the problem is that no clear upper border of this formation can be drawn. It might eventually turn into something like a bearish flag or something else. At this moment I don't really have a view on this pair.
  • #112
  • Mar 28, 2007 12:32am Mar 28, 2007 12:32am
Quoting Igrok
the problem is that no clear upper border of this formation can be drawn.

Yea i based this on a line chart and waited until it bounced off its top until i asked the question, but thanks for your reply

When you talk about identifying shapes in your book, in the templates, they're like line charts, but then you use Bar charts in other areas of your book. Which do you prefer and why?
  • #113
  • Mar 28, 2007 12:36am Mar 28, 2007 12:36am
Quoting Blackinc
Yea i based this on a line chart and waited until it bounced off its top until i asked the question, but thanks for your reply

When you talk about identifying shapes in your book, in the templates, they're like line charts, but then you use Bar charts in other areas of your book. Which do you prefer and why?
I saw and posted an ascending triangle in hourly, and it was already broken to the downside now. No daily triangle to be seen yet also here.
Tra-X
  • #114
  • Mar 28, 2007 12:53am Mar 28, 2007 12:53am
Quoting Blackinc
Yea i based this on a line chart and waited until it bounced off its top until i asked the question, but thanks for your reply

When you talk about identifying shapes in your book, in the templates, they're like line charts, but then you use Bar charts in other areas of your book. Which do you prefer and why?
In real trading I use plain bar charts only. The templates are illustrated by drawings for easier understanding of the concept.
  • #115
  • Mar 28, 2007 1:07am Mar 28, 2007 1:07am
Quoting Blackinc
Igrok,

I would like to know your current thoughts on the USD/JPY. I'm not sure you've mentioned your longer term view on the Yen anywhere, but besides that, to me there is a clear triangle pattern being formed on the daily. Would you agree?
Sorry, I forgot to mention that over the last 6 trading days the USD/JPY has been forming a comb formation which got broken today. I guess it worth reminding that such formations naturally attract the market working as some sort of magnets and have 100% breaking rate.
  • #116
  • Mar 28, 2007 1:16am Mar 28, 2007 1:16am
Quoting Igrok
Sorry, I forgot to mention that over the last 6 trading days the USD/JPY has been forming a comb formation which got broken today. I guess it worth reminding that such formations naturally attract the market working as some sort of magnets and have 100% breaking rate.
Hi Igrok, just want to ask, is comb = diagonal triangle/wedge? At least I'll figure it out next time you mention it. Thanks.
Tra-X
  • #117
  • Mar 28, 2007 1:24am Mar 28, 2007 1:24am
Quoting Traex
Hi Igrok, just want to ask, is comb = diagonal triangle/wedge? At least I'll figure it out next time you mention it. Thanks.
Neither of them. Check out pages 73-74 and find a description with illustrations there.
  • #118
  • Mar 28, 2007 3:11am Mar 28, 2007 3:11am
Hi.. I have your book and I think it's the best one out there. Thanks a lot for writing it!
I have a question on today's GBP formation. To me , it looks like Template 18.3. Do you think this observation is correct and thus GBP/USD might go up from this low of the day? Important economic numbers are just about to come out.
  • #119
  • Edited 3:41am Mar 28, 2007 3:24am | Edited 3:41am
Quoting okfx
Hi.. I have your book and I think it's the best one out there. Thanks a lot for writing it!
I have a question on today's GBP formation. To me , it looks like Template 18.3. Do you think this observation is correct and thus GBP/USD might go up from this low of the day? Important economic numbers are just about to come out.
You're welcome.
No. This is definitely not 18.3 because Cable was trading on both sides of the day's open price. A this moment my concern on Cable is that we might not have seen the low of the week yet. The range so far is short of its weekly average, the previous week's high has not been taken out yet and there are several unfinished businesses below the current low. Also the unfilled gap on USDX at 83.68 makes this picture potentially even more USD bullish for the moment. In technically uncertain situations (like the one now) the template #18.4 could be a weapon of choice.
  • #120
  • Mar 28, 2007 3:53am Mar 28, 2007 3:53am
For the moment it makes sense to consider buying Cable at around 1.9585-90 with stops below 1.9570 which is same template #18.4 but on intraweek basis.
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