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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #9,061
  • Mar 25, 2007 9:09am Mar 25, 2007 9:09am
Quoting highway3000
Hi Cesar !
It seems that you are not a native speaker. Double read it and you will understand. Still don't get it ?
Listen, get a bit of help from Traex.

Traex, give him a hand.
Thanks
errr... wait. I don't get what you mean also. Hmm?
Tra-X
  • #9,062
  • Mar 25, 2007 11:58am Mar 25, 2007 11:58am
Me neither. For not being a native speaker (guess you mean english) I think Cesar is almost always very clear. At least when he isn't hung over.
  • #9,063
  • Mar 25, 2007 3:37pm Mar 25, 2007 3:37pm
March 25 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of new homes in the U.S. probably rebounded last month from a three-year low, a sign the worst of the real estate rout has passed.
Purchases rose to an annual pace of 990,000, up 5.7 percent from January, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of a Commerce Department report tomorrow. The National Association of Realtors last week said sales of previously owned homes rose by the most in three years.
Improving sales will help builders trim a glut of unsold homes, paving the way for construction gains later in the year and tempering the biggest source of weakness in the economy. The figures are a respite for an industry plagued by concerns that defaults on subprime mortgages will derail a market rebound.
The housing market is ``fairly well along in the process of rebalancing,'' said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland. Subprime-mortgage defaults don't ``have the heft to bring the entire market down.''
  • #9,064
  • Mar 25, 2007 5:00pm Mar 25, 2007 5:00pm
Seen comments about Japan earthquake + 15 UK marines kept by Iran to trigger some carry unwinding again. Never to forget about the sudden Crazy Ivan's GJ Selloff for Vodka and upcoming USD-positive news...

Looks like we're having our dip to buy ahead of Frankfurt session, huh?

I'm going through Asian session with buy limits at 9525 / 9500 and 9480 (just in case).

None of them triggered, I'll wait for USD news before getting in...

Nice week
  • #9,065
  • Mar 25, 2007 5:15pm Mar 25, 2007 5:15pm
Quoting cesarnc
Seen comments about Japan earthquake + 15 UK marines kept by Iran to trigger some carry unwinding again. Never to forget about the sudden Crazy Ivan's GJ Selloff for Vodka and upcoming USD-positive news...

Looks like we're having our dip to buy ahead of Frankfurt session, huh?

I'm going through Asian session with buy limits at 9525 / 9500 and 9480 (just in case).

None of them triggered, I'll wait for USD news before getting in...

Nice week
Cesar,
What is your plan if new home sales' release is USD negative?
I am not a pessimist; I am just wondering my friend...
  • #9,066
  • Mar 25, 2007 5:24pm Mar 25, 2007 5:24pm
Quoting dunningduke
Cesar,
What is your plan if new home sales' release is USD negative?
I am not a pessimist; I am just wondering my friend...
I don't have a plan for that, in case we don't have the dip at low 95s.

It is noticeable that there wasn't new buyers above 9700 recently, don't know if they are there now without that dip....

I'd like to be long from low 9500 for a possible breach of 9720s, because there will be room for further highs... Going straight shot to 9720 and we'd better stay aside to find the top...

Sad but true: no dip to low 95s tomorrow and we may have a lousy choppy Monday to trade...

These my "speculation" and what I will be looking for. But if Cable is trending hard to price in a possible rate hike in April, then we may go up non-stop... Too many possibilities. We'll have a better sense when price starts moving only...
  • #9,067
  • Edited 6:33pm Mar 25, 2007 5:54pm | Edited 6:33pm
a drop to 9480 is feasible.

may see a trip up to 9660 first.

4HR candle will tell the tale.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #9,068
  • Mar 25, 2007 7:03pm Mar 25, 2007 7:03pm
Hi everyone.Possible move till 119.78 before 115 and lower by usd/jpy.I'll post my technical view to show my idea.
  • #9,069
  • Mar 25, 2007 7:16pm Mar 25, 2007 7:16pm
http://www.imagefreehost.com/files/2...1410065408.jpg
  • #9,070
  • Mar 25, 2007 7:21pm Mar 25, 2007 7:21pm
Quoting TheCable
Hi everyone.Possible move till 119.78 before 115 and lower by usd/jpy.I'll post my technical view to show my idea.
Ignorance here: Why UJ is not bound above 120 again? The drop was carry unwinding driven, wasn't it?

Same for GJ up to 238s or something...

I'm not too used to Yen fundamentals, so I'd like to understand Yen better.. Thanks.
  • #9,071
  • Mar 25, 2007 7:25pm Mar 25, 2007 7:25pm
I wrote possible. I will place my orders and let the market decide which way to go.
  • #9,072
  • Mar 25, 2007 7:27pm Mar 25, 2007 7:27pm
Quoting TheCable
I wrote possible. I will place my orders and let the martk decide which way to go.
Got it. Actually I wasn't opposing to what you wrote. All market comments are more or less like yours...

i just wanted to know why back above 120 is out of the cards, since I don't understand the fundies related to Yen, as of yet...
  • #9,073
  • Mar 25, 2007 7:32pm Mar 25, 2007 7:32pm
I think,that the carry traders will wait til wednesday -> enough time to go til 120 for us and enough time to win the easy swap-money for them :-)
  • #9,074
  • Mar 25, 2007 8:00pm Mar 25, 2007 8:00pm
Quoting TheCable
I think,that the carry traders will wait til wednesday -> enough time to go til 120 for us and enough time to win the easy swap-money for them :-)
Some Russians are reported to be buying and selling heavy on GJ lately. When this pair, for some reason, finds continuation, here we go ultra-volatile again...

Back by London Cya.
  • #9,075
  • Mar 25, 2007 8:02pm Mar 25, 2007 8:02pm
Quoting TheCable
Hi everyone.Possible move till 119.78 before 115 and lower by usd/jpy.I'll post my technical view to show my idea.
uj is about to take a dive to 117.50->116.80.

it will not travel up first.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #9,076
  • Mar 26, 2007 4:31am Mar 26, 2007 4:31am
Quoting cesarnc

Sad but true: no dip to low 95s tomorrow and we may have a lousy choppy Monday to trade...
  • #9,077
  • Mar 26, 2007 5:04am Mar 26, 2007 5:04am
Quoting cesarnc
4:00pm USDNew Home Sales http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif
0.99M0.94M
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...l_analysis.gif

Wait til 4:00 pm GMT+1
  • #9,078
  • Mar 26, 2007 5:09am Mar 26, 2007 5:09am
Quoting TheCable
4:00pm USDNew Home Sales http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif
0.99M0.94M
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...l_analysis.gif

Wait til 4:00 pm GMT+1

This MAY give us the entry

I'm reviewing my position here... as early Europe fail to provide a move and 9580 seems to be holding, fail at 9550s on USD-positve news and I'm back in long...

We've had a high at 9643 today. Don't see fundies, volume or volatility to give us more than 100 pips range day today...

Thoughts?
  • #9,079
  • Mar 26, 2007 5:43am Mar 26, 2007 5:43am
I think,that the new home sales will give us a short-term direction.
  • #9,080
  • Mar 26, 2007 6:42am Mar 26, 2007 6:42am
Downside failing today at high 95s. Guess Cable up sentiment is back in town...

I'm going long whatever the price at pullback during US news if comes out as forecast.

USD-news coming negative and good price to buy is gone, although higher highs will be in the cards...

Not a day for big pips, quick window of opportunity only...
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