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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #9,041
  • Mar 24, 2007 12:33am Mar 24, 2007 12:33am
Quoting wep561
Does anyone in this thread actually make any money? 99% demo and micro traders with 50/50 opinions. Any real traders here?
Imo any real true trader wouldn't even bother to post analysis or even look at this thread. I'm still using mini now and have ever lost alot 2x last year using micro (darn cable and GBP/JPY). Past 3 months have been good and consistent. Reading 'Trading in the Zone' currently and getting my mind smacked upside down. Let's see.

Have a nice weekend.
Tra-X
  • #9,042
  • Mar 24, 2007 7:30am Mar 24, 2007 7:30am
Quoting Traex
Imo any real true trader wouldn't even bother to post analysis or even look at this thread. I'm still using mini now and have ever lost alot 2x last year using micro (darn cable and GBP/JPY). Past 3 months have been good and consistent. Reading 'Trading in the Zone' currently and getting my mind smacked upside down. Let's see.

Have a nice weekend.
Consistency is now my next challenge here.... THe only thing that really bothers me is that price had just one direction for 5-6 days in a row. I can trade quite well when market does that.

My problem is choppy markets, when 20-30 pips move seems a breakout and eat your trade with a whipsaw and when price changes direction sharply during the week for apparently no reason (I mean, no news or some other fundamental).

Wise thing to do would be staying aside during Asia / Europe open next week and jump in when direction gets clear, possibly by NYC.

And I use to be very good at calling "stay aside, watch, don`t hurry", but fail in the execution...

After the week I had, Friday was a day to go do something else and I called this shot... Not to execute it.
  • #9,043
  • Mar 24, 2007 7:49am Mar 24, 2007 7:49am
Quoting cesarnc
Consistency Wise thing to do would be staying aside during Asia / Europe open next week and jump in when direction gets clear, possibly by NYC.
On the 4H chart cable is prepared to go south but .......
I vote for the same. That is the best decesion for now.

GL to all
Attached Image
It’s just emotions & money
  • #9,044
  • Mar 24, 2007 8:13am Mar 24, 2007 8:13am
Quoting cesarnc
And I use to be very good at calling "stay aside, watch, don`t hurry", but fail in the execution...
This has been my vital problem also so far. It goes back to our mentality/attitude, nothing else (including techie/fundie analysis) matters. At least it's what the book I'm currently reading is talking about. The mind smacking continues...
Tra-X
  • #9,045
  • Mar 24, 2007 8:41am Mar 24, 2007 8:41am
Quoting Traex
This has been my vital problem also so far. It goes back to our mentality/attitude, nothing else (including techie/fundie analysis) matters. At least it's what the book I'm currently reading is talking about. The mind smacking continues...
During choppy or short-term ranging markets what we actually see is Big Money not trading and we flood the forum asking for direction to place a trade.

In the meanwhile, the Big Money, who can afford loosing 10x-my-account/pip is out. Then when I see my drawdown I go, "whatta heck am I doing here?"

When we start thinking how the big money does, we will start making consistent profits, that I really believe in.

However, no doubt at the first 20 pips spike during London a few of my brave and proud microlots will pop in.
  • #9,046
  • Mar 24, 2007 9:50am Mar 24, 2007 9:50am
My charts seem to look a lot less cluttered than a many... I'm not sure that's good or bad

If I were to go on the cable monday morning on a 4 hour chart it would be short:

Entry 1.9607
Stop 1.9689
Limit 1.9525

If my money management rules allowed, I'd put a second lot on with no limit.

20 period simple moving average and price oscilator.
3 period simple moving average and a kinda stocastic.
The horizontal lines are support and resisatance that I wouldn't trade through unless I was my second lot was already at break even.
I really only need the two MA's but the other charts are there to provide the same info in a differnt fashion. Some times it helps me see the entry points better.

May the Pips be with you.
Attached Image
  • #9,047
  • Mar 24, 2007 11:52am Mar 24, 2007 11:52am
Quoting Marrethiel

If I were to go on the cable monday morning on a 4 hour chart it would be short:

Entry 1.9607
Stop 1.9689
Limit 1.9525
looks interesting...

How about getting by Asia open with sell stop 9607 with a sell limt at 9666, TP1 9555, TP2 9525, both SL 9695 / let it workout until exhaustion?

On the SL: I don't usually feel confortable placing a SL in a price already visited. I'd rather place it higher a little. In the event of the strategy is bad or maket gets ranging, you may avoid being stopped out and will at least get out at B/E or small loss. Touching 9695, in the other hand, opens the door for 97+ spike.

I'd go for a 100pip range Monday, but catching a few more stops up during Asia before sinking. Below 9555 is likely to lie a cluster of buy orders.

Not a recommendation or a statement of what is gonna happen. Just a stategy to be discussed and hopefully to be proven wrong by someone before triggered...
  • #9,048
  • Edited 5:09pm Mar 24, 2007 12:10pm | Edited 5:09pm
Thinking a little bit more, buy limits at the 9525/9480 area with stops at 9420 would hold the best risk:reward ratio for the week.

Entering in a potential good support area, AVG 100 pips SL way behind it and potential profit at 9700 (+200) / 9750 (+250) / 9900 (not to forget about leelee75k's hidden and unconfessed agenda)

That would be really something.
  • #9,049
  • Mar 24, 2007 12:19pm Mar 24, 2007 12:19pm
I think,that we'll see the bottom of usd/jpy around 114.Gbp/jpy will go south till 224-225.
After this moves I'll start with my carry trade again :-)
  • #9,050
  • Mar 24, 2007 2:01pm Mar 24, 2007 2:01pm
Quoting TheCable
I think,that we'll see the bottom of usd/jpy around 114.Gbp/jpy will go south till 224-225.
After this moves I'll start with my carry trade again :-)
What do you base your view on?

I see forces that drive Yen up vanishing: Yen repatriation ahead of the end of Japan's FY (Mar 31st) and carry carnage.

What would be the driver for UJ 400 pips down? I'd appreciate to understand it because I'm now starting to feel confortable with trading UJ....
  • #9,051
  • Mar 24, 2007 5:43pm Mar 24, 2007 5:43pm
I agree with the cable guy pretty much.....

i have done 2 fund analwona be, for cable am still uncertain,...dont know why i feel 720 wasnt the top henry didnt convinced me so far, maybe the banks will...

I heard they are later this year so i had to check it....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_g...ection%2C_2003
Attached Image
its just money
  • #9,052
  • Mar 24, 2007 5:50pm Mar 24, 2007 5:50pm
Quoting TheCable
I think,that we'll see the bottom of usd/jpy around 114.Gbp/jpy will go south till 224-225.
After this moves I'll start with my carry trade again :-)
My charts say long on the usd/jpy for both 24 and 4 hour charts.
  • #9,053
  • Mar 24, 2007 6:05pm Mar 24, 2007 6:05pm
Quoting Traex
Not a drink = food, not a brand = ?, not soft = hard. Oke I got it.
Boys and ladies,
When Monach was running the show here, you were having an easy time and had it soft and gentle.
Now that Cesar is taking over, those days are over ! ! You will have a hard time ! !

Look out for it. Leave or enjoy it ! !
  • #9,054
  • Mar 24, 2007 7:16pm Mar 24, 2007 7:16pm
I'm thinking that the gbp which is at 1.9618 right now will go down to 1.9500 at least this week, early this week. Just an Adamus prediction. Good luck to all.
Fear is the mind killer.
  • #9,055
  • Mar 24, 2007 11:42pm Mar 24, 2007 11:42pm
Quoting Nostradamus
I'm thinking that the gbp which is at 1.9618 right now will go down to 1.9500 at least this week, early this week. Just an Adamus prediction. Good luck to all.
again this is not so far fetched. only, i see a lot of you are seeing this too.

i don't see this as a good thing.

does this mean it will go the other way? if you think that you need to trade more.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #9,056
  • Mar 25, 2007 2:55am Mar 25, 2007 2:55am
GBP/USD
Cable's rebound from 1.9183 extended further last week, reaching as high as
1.9726. Break of short term falling trend line (1.9913 to 1.9672) confirmed
that correction from 1.9913 has already completed at 1.9183. More importantly,
cable's failure to break firmly below 1.9215/17 cluster support (50%
retracement of 1.8517 to 1.9913 at 1.9215, 38.2% retracement of 1.8090 to
1.9913 at 1.9217) indicates that such fall from 1.9913 should be a correction
to the rise from 1.8517 only. Hence further rally is now expected to follow to
retest this 1.9913 high.

From a near term angle, a short term top should be formed at 1.9726 after 4
hours MACD was dragged down to below signal line by subsequent retreat. Further
consolidation is in favor towards 1.9552 support or lower. But such pull back
is expected to be contained above 1.9395 cluster support (61.8% retracement of
1.9183 to 1.9726 at 1.9390) and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.9726 will
indicate rise has resumed for 1.9913 high. However, below 1.9390/95 again will
argues that the rise from 1.9183 has completed and will bring this lower into
focus again.

In the bigger picture, with bearish divergence conditions being displayed in
weekly RSI and daily MACD a medium term top should be around the corner. The up
trend from 1.7047 should make a top after reaching 2.0046/0106 cluster
resistance zone (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at
2.0067, 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046. And hence,
focus will be on reversal signal as cable approaches these levels. On the
downside, sustained break of 1.9215/17 cluster support will indicate that the
whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed earlier then we thought and
should the bring deeper correction to 1.8834 cluster support (38.2% retracement
of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

In the longer term picture, the break above 1.9554 resistance (04 high) is
favoring the case that long term up trend from 1.3680 has resumed after
correction from 1.9554 was supported by 55 months EMA. However the structure of
the medium term rise from 1.7047 is not clearly supporting this yet. And, we're
still skeptical on it. The structure of the fall after finishing the current up
trend from 1.7047 should reveal more information.
  • #9,057
  • Mar 25, 2007 7:36am Mar 25, 2007 7:36am
Quoting highway3000
Boys and ladies,
When Monach was running the show here, you were having an easy time and had it soft and gentle.
Now that Cesar is taking over, those days are over ! ! You will have a hard time ! !

Look out for it. Leave or enjoy it ! !
Monarch is reachable in other forums, for those who prefer easy and gentle. On my side, I don't find it very gentle making calls, people jumpping in, price going against and he showing up on the next day fiboing the screw up, never to comment the lousy entry.

Two things forex definitely is not: easy and gentle.

But I've seen people making profit out of the hard forex from the exchange of ideas here.
  • #9,058
  • Mar 25, 2007 7:39am Mar 25, 2007 7:39am
Quoting nuancom
GBP/USD
Cable's rebound from 1.9183 extended further last week, reaching as high as
1.9726. Break of short term falling trend line (1.9913 to 1.9672) confirmed
that correction from 1.9913 has already completed at 1.9183. More importantly,
cable's failure to break firmly below 1.9215/17 cluster support (50%
retracement of 1.8517 to 1.9913 at 1.9215, 38.2% retracement of 1.8090 to
1.9913 at 1.9217) indicates that such fall from 1.9913 should be a correction
to the rise from 1.8517 only. Hence further rally is now expected to follow to
retest this 1.9913 high.

From a near term angle, a short term top should be formed at 1.9726 after 4
hours MACD was dragged down to below signal line by subsequent retreat. Further
consolidation is in favor towards 1.9552 support or lower. But such pull back
is expected to be contained above 1.9395 cluster support (61.8% retracement of
1.9183 to 1.9726 at 1.9390) and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.9726 will
indicate rise has resumed for 1.9913 high. However, below 1.9390/95 again will
argues that the rise from 1.9183 has completed and will bring this lower into
focus again.
I like this kind of information. Gives the key prices to look at, enter and exit. Thanks for sharing
  • #9,059
  • Mar 25, 2007 7:57am Mar 25, 2007 7:57am
Quoting cesarnc
Monarch is reachable in other forums, for those who prefer easy and gentle. On my side, I don't find it very gentle making calls, people jumpping in, price going against and he showing up on the next day fiboing the screw up, never to comment the lousy entry.

Two things forex definitely is not: easy and gentle.

But I've seen people making profit out of the hard forex from the exchange of ideas here.
Hi Cesar !
It seems that you are not a native speaker. Double read it and you will understand. Still don't get it ?
Listen, get a bit of help from Traex.

Traex, give him a hand.
Thanks
  • #9,060
  • Mar 25, 2007 8:04am Mar 25, 2007 8:04am
Quoting highway3000
Hi Cesar !
It seems that you are not a native speaker. Double read it and you will understand. Still don't get it ?
Listen, get a bit of help from Traex.

Traex, give him a hand.
Thanks
Freaking hangover...
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