Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected | Page 87 | Forex Factory

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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #1,721
  • Feb 11, 2009 2:45am Feb 11, 2009 2:45am
Quoting eyevoltage
Welcome to the thread, Larry, and I take it that's the 1H Cable chart you've posted? I've copied you and plotted that one too, and my first extension target would be the FE61.8% on 1.4735 with the FE100% the next one on 1.4648. I'm not trading this one.....just watching to see what happens. I don't bother much with longer than 5m or 15m charts, mate.

Edit: Don't ask me how your chart got in here, Larry, 'cos I've absolutely no idea!!
Hi all,

thanks EV.

It was a good trade idea.
Nearly 300 pips from 1.4766 breakout.

See you for the next trade !
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  • #1,722
  • Feb 11, 2009 4:38am Feb 11, 2009 4:38am
Nice one, Larry. Perhaps you could adjust your charts so that the TF can be seen, mate, if you don't mind?

This trade I've just had would have been posted earlier, but I'm always potentially subject to being called away from the computer, and that's what happened this time. I'm just glad I'd managed to complete the trade beforehand!
A nice bullish flag pattern, entry just above the 1.4500 psych-line and a bit of a premature exit as price started retreating.
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  • #1,723
  • Feb 11, 2009 4:48am Feb 11, 2009 4:48am
Charts are H1.
sorry ....

New test of 1.4388 support.

I'm short.
Stop to 1.4460
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  • #1,724
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:17am Feb 11, 2009 6:17am
Quoting LarryM@x
Charts are H1.
sorry ....

New test of 1.4388 support.

I'm short.
Stop to 1.4460
Larry, are you sure it's 1H? I've just checked my set-up, and your display is identical to my 30m chart.
  • #1,725
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:28am Feb 11, 2009 6:28am
Yes,

This one was 30 min. But I spoke about yesterday charts.

regards
  • #1,726
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:28am Feb 11, 2009 6:28am
Another flag, this time a bearish one, signalled a fairly quick trade. Entry and exit as indicated. Bailed out purely and simply because of the price stuck in the confluence formed by S1 and the xx50 psych-line. (That's an 8 pip gap, incidentally. Anybody out there with any idea of the pip limit before it's NOT classed as a confluence?). Just wondering.
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  • #1,727
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:44am Feb 11, 2009 6:44am
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Very nice trades today EV...

Watching U/J just now... no plan of attack... see how it unfolds...


Magnus
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  • #1,728
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:55am Feb 11, 2009 6:55am
Quoting Yuppie
Very nice trades today EV...

Watching U/J just now... no plan of attack... see how it unfolds...


Magnus
Hi Magnus.
Where've you been, mate?
  • #1,729
  • Feb 11, 2009 8:12am Feb 11, 2009 8:12am
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Quoting eyevoltage
Hi Magnus.
Where've you been, mate?
Been around... Trade mainly off 1-min line charts and tick charts mostly... sounds like scalping but I actually aim for reasonable runs... get out sharpish if it goes against!

I have the 5-min and 15-min of the majors and Yens on my screens all the time. Still trying to find those clinical entries that you prove daily...

The candles that developed on U/J I posted earlier were everywhere on both 5-min and 15-min... it broke up, retraced, then up some more - not clear enough for me...


Magnus
  • #1,730
  • Feb 11, 2009 8:50am Feb 11, 2009 8:50am
Quoting eyevoltage
Not really, mate. If I'm on a 5m chart (which I usually am), and I see a promising set-up forming, I'm only interested in what's happening on that chart. To be honest, comparing different TFs tends to confuse matters for me, so I like to keep things simple and make my judgements on whatever TF I happen to be monitoring at that time. However, it all boils down to one man's meat etc., and I'm sure most people out there will have conflicting views on this subject.
Hope that helps.
EV is spot on - it's whatever works for you and whatever you feel comfortable with.

As a general observation, in principle, you get better moves with the M5 trades taken in the direction of H1 trend (unless H1 was going into RT when you took M5 trade).
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #1,731
  • Feb 11, 2009 10:52am Feb 11, 2009 10:52am
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Fluffed this dark-cloud setup (I think it's dark-cloud??)... But to be honest I don't think it was much of a setup...

Usually, the longer i wait for a setup to occurr, the more likelihood it has of working out... and I saw this and went for it...

Anyway, panicked after it went against me and got out for -14 pips... entered again and got out for +10 pips - just to try and recoup the loss... First chart shows first trade... Second chart shows second trade...

Impulse trade!
Revenge trade!

I'll learn...


EV, would you like to comment on this trade? I never used any pivots or Fibs and so never really had any supporting factors for the trade other than it closing above .00 (it doesn't show this on the pictures, but I was watching another feed at the time and it closed a pip or two above).


Magnus
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  • #1,732
  • Feb 11, 2009 11:30am Feb 11, 2009 11:30am
Quoting Yuppie
Fluffed this dark-cloud setup (I think it's dark-cloud??)...

Usually, the longer i wait for a setup to occurr, the more likelihood it has of working out... and I saw this and went for it...

Impulse trade!
Hi Magnus,

It's "piercing line" for Long - http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs39.asp; "Dark cloud cover" is its mirror for Short - http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs48.asp

Note that in both cases the "trigger/signal" candle must open close lower (or higher for Short) than the preceeding one. In your case it was not the case.

Waiting does pay (in monetary terms too ). After all, it's a great advantage you have over the market that YOU choose when to enter - it's in your best interests to use that advantage well!

On your chart, note two "pinbars" (OzTrader says they are not your average "shooting stars" - he gives good explanation at his Web site) - they are great setups (especially if they occur at the end of the retracement, e.g. off middle Bollinger and/or MA21).

Hope that helps.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #1,733
  • Feb 11, 2009 11:53am Feb 11, 2009 11:53am
Quoting Yuppie
Fluffed this dark-cloud setup (I think it's dark-cloud??)... But to be honest I don't think it was much of a setup...

Usually, the longer i wait for a setup to occurr, the more likelihood it has of working out... and I saw this and went for it...

Anyway, panicked after it went against me and got out for -14 pips... entered again and got out for +10 pips - just to try and recoup the loss... First chart shows first trade... Second chart shows second trade...

Impulse trade!
Revenge trade!

I'll learn...


EV, would you like to comment...
Magnus, first of all, get some pivots and sweetspots on the chart because you really do need some S/R points of reference. The MAs are included on my chart because they also become S/R points of reference.
Have a look at my chart, which is the situation you described. Dark Cloud Covers ALWAYS occur at the top of the trend. What you were working from was a Bullish Engulfing Pattern. As you can see from my chart, as price retraced towards the MAs, I drew a TL, the idea being to initiate a trade when price hit the MAs and, hopefully, breaking down through the TL which it did in this instance. Entry and exit are clearly marked. By the way, I didn't take this trade, as I've been away from the computer for a while.
Hope all this helps, mate. Any questions, just fire away.
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  • #1,734
  • Feb 11, 2009 12:28pm Feb 11, 2009 12:28pm
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Thank you both forex007 and EV... I think I was going a bit too naked on the candlesticks...

Both comments have been insightful. I can see a marked difference in having the pivots marked up.

Think I'll get myself fitted up with these for tomorrow.


Thanks again guys,

Magnus
  • #1,735
  • Edited 9:09pm Feb 11, 2009 1:01pm | Edited 9:09pm
Nice to see an uncluttered thread, and hope this isn't an intrusion here. This chart shows how I trade pivots, and I've hidden the supporting MA's and fibs for now to highlite the backbone of my short term strategy.

This is a zoomed out 6m overview chart with a 21sma, and I trade it using a 2m or 3m chart for entry/exits, using a 20m and 1hr for supporting direction... really pretty simple. One could also trade this on an MT4 5m/15m chart as well.

Well, I just lost a longer post explaining in a little more detail what's on the chart besides the traditional pivots and don't have time to redo it..

Essentially, Yellow line is the Daily Pivot, the Green line is the Central Pivot or Opening price at my 5pm Daily session open. The Aqua lines are Quarter pivots or QP's, that fall halfway between the regular pivots. The Orange lines are halfway between those levels and I only (rarely) use them when PA is lethargic or struggling with breaking levels... lots of chop within a narrowish range or channel. Price must also respect them or they get tossed.

The first hit on the mid 2940's level during the Frankie open on the left edge of the chart is a good example of that. I did not have that line plotted yet but you can clearly see the first rejection at 2945 (my chart) at that level. It then became the median line near the middle part of the London session.

The PA is self explanatory, and I'm sorry the longer post got lost in the submission process. Hope to drop in from time to time... careful trades all.
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FUBAR...
  • #1,736
  • Edited 3:49pm Feb 11, 2009 2:35pm | Edited 3:49pm
Ak4x, many thanks for your comments and nice clear chart. Nice of you to drop in, mate. Don't be a stranger!
  • #1,737
  • Feb 11, 2009 5:25pm Feb 11, 2009 5:25pm
Curious what the consensus of the thread here is on Daily pivots... I use HLC from FXSol Accucharts data calculated at 5pm EST. So as not confuse things down the road and allowing a few pips difference for borker data, are these close to what the folks here use?

This is what I have for my new Wednesday afternoon pivots, good thru Thursday @ 5pm EST.
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FUBAR...
  • #1,738
  • Feb 11, 2009 5:59pm Feb 11, 2009 5:59pm
Longer term for the session and... maybe beyond.

Could be too early for prognostication yet, but this 2 hr is looking fairly well squeezed into the range between the DP and M2 atm... The doji loooked bullish for a while until the next candle tore south, it has a few minutes left on it before the 2hr close and then maybe the asia open will clear things up some.

With a solid M2 break, my bias is down for the mid term, but that can change quick, as I'm poaching short term trades between the pivots and fib levels on shorter TF's.

We'll see what develops.
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FUBAR...
  • #1,739
  • Feb 11, 2009 7:22pm Feb 11, 2009 7:22pm
Quoting ak4x
Curious what the consensus of the thread here is on Daily pivots... I use HLC from FXSol Accucharts data calculated at 5pm EST. So as not confuse things down the road and allowing a few pips difference for borker data, are these close to what the folks here use?

This is what I have for my new Wednesday afternoon pivots, good thru Thursday @ 5pm EST.
I use MultiplePivotsV2, mate, and I've just looked at my chart for Thursday and here in the UK, my readings are very similar to yours. From a 1 pip difference to a 5 pip difference around R3 and S3.
Nice looking charts, mate. Do you not bother with the round number psych-lines, and just base your trades purely on the Pivot readings?

It's about time I hit the sack, so maybe I'll see you a bit later on, mate.
Cheers
  • #1,740
  • Edited 9:14pm Feb 11, 2009 7:30pm | Edited 9:14pm
Here's a good pic of a trade I took half of on the 2/3m chart, altho under other circumstances, you'd get a round trip out of it.

The first chart shows partial PA at the bottom from the trip down from the DP (2910) right at the session open, a break to the down side, and my clue for which direction to look. I shorted that down to the BB bounce, and scaled out leaving some to run.

At the Low (small ellipse) it bounced back to the 21sma, then retested the low, slamming into the BB, fiddled a'rd for a few losing momentum and then began the trip back north (larger shaded ellipse).

Think of a rubber ball bouncing and gradually losing height on each bounce, that's what I look for to see if it will break back up or push on thru. The Orange TL defines the action.

I did NOT trade the counter trend move here ((as I see it on the 2hr)) and if I did, it would be at reduced order size. Part of the reason is I tend not to trade counter trend when the channel is not yet established for the session, and the other reason is I was taking screen shots.

So watching the pips go by on the way back to the DP/CP where I 'm ready to reshort, illustrated by the PA on the smaller chart for the Short back to the QP. Again, the bouncing ball picture... It was clear it would probably not hit the DP on this trip at least so re-entry was at the CP (2904) based on the 1m chart, and exit at the QP (2886).

Not very sexy, but it gets the job done.
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FUBAR...
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