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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #119,761
  • Feb 11, 2009 5:54am Feb 11, 2009 5:54am
We are in a big swing here..lots of lost souls.

Placing a trade here is questionable since we dont have a clear trend..or trends change like hats....

Placing trades model seems to have changed a bit during this economic period.
I see those that use indecision as a tool, tend to be rewarded if you use it as shown below. Boundries of doubt are greater in range during these economic periods.

The Herd mentallity has no clear direction and so ANY news REVERSES previous decisions. And so we remain in the period of INDECISION. We flinch at any news or movements.

Breakouts tend to be the only reallity approaching normality.

This is common in a period of uncertainty. This is what I mean by taking advantage of the HERD Mentallity.
Observations:
1. Chasing Trends is unproductive
2. Day Trading..or Scalping is safest
3. Do not trade during important news reports
4. Get out of trade asap
5. Placing +BE asap is critical
6. Entering and reversing directions at highs and lows with tight SL tends to rewarded best.

A graph illustrates how we are trading mostly in the "Region In Question"
This why I sometimes find myself falling into the trap of ...chasing the news.
Attached Image
  • #119,762
  • Feb 11, 2009 5:54am Feb 11, 2009 5:54am
Quoting vinesh
Abu, any insights about what is best to do if you are not holding any position? I am a total newbie. Does you analysis still hold after almost touching 2nd. target and retracing?
Yes it still applied, but keep an eye on the 30M candles
  • #119,763
  • Feb 11, 2009 5:57am Feb 11, 2009 5:57am
Dears

From my point of view,,,we may go down till 1.4050 and there may be a retracement up to 1.4320 : 60 Area,,,,which we try to break just now,,,,and don't know what is next may be Up again or down to breack 1.3500 Area

What is your view Navin and AbuAwad ?
  • #119,764
  • Feb 11, 2009 5:59am Feb 11, 2009 5:59am
i have realised tho and its very true...its when u lose u learn..i cant seem to learn for success in trading..very strange
  • #119,765
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:00am Feb 11, 2009 6:00am
Quoting nAVIN2007
hope u ladies and gents are trading better than me ..i have lost the plot again...very bad trading by me this week..
hey Navin...

I wrote something up to read and discuss..but..I do see traders chasing their tails here.

We are running around trying to catch fireflies. Instead of smacking it once it lands on us.

slow down and dont try and catch all moves..just the more obvious ones. Good luck.

p.s. - i am guilty of this at times..and have to smack myself at times.
  • #119,766
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:09am Feb 11, 2009 6:09am
Quoting nAVIN2007
i have realised tho and its very true...its when u lose u learn..i cant seem to learn for success in trading..very strange
With a trade plan we need to know what we are going to do if our trade goes our way, it doesn't go our way and sideways traffic, easy but staying with this plan is the difference between the 5% and the 95%.

cheers

A
  • #119,767
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:12am Feb 11, 2009 6:12am
Quoting JammerJams
We are in a big swing here..lots of lost souls.

Placing a trade here is questionable since we dont have a clear trend..or trends change like hats....

Placing trades model seems to have changed a bit during this economic period.
I see those that use indecision as a tool, tend to be rewarded if you use it as shown below. Boundries of doubt are greater in range during these economic periods.

The Herd mentallity has no clear direction and so ANY news REVERSES previous decisions. And so we remain in the period of INDECISION. We flinch at any...
Agreed 100%. You are The Man.
  • #119,768
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:14am Feb 11, 2009 6:14am
Quoting AlexFX
With a trade plan we need to know what we are going to do if our trade goes our way, it doesn't go our way and sideways traffic, easy but staying with this plan is the difference between the 5% and the 95%.

cheers

A

yes i see..i am gulity of this..i entered the trade but i was bullish till 1.53 and i had 120 pips profit and that turned into a massive losser, i stuck in the trade and i thought the resistance wasnt big enough , i guess news bought cable down or the blasted trend..
  • #119,769
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:14am Feb 11, 2009 6:14am
Quoting AlexFX
With a trade plan we need to know what we are going to do if our trade goes our way, it doesn't go our way and sideways traffic, easy but staying with this plan is the difference between the 5% and the 95%.

cheers

A
Perls of Wisdom...well stated.
  • #119,770
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:15am Feb 11, 2009 6:15am
Quoting JammerJams
hey Navin...

I wrote something up to read and discuss..but..I do see traders chasing their tails here.

We are running around trying to catch fireflies. Instead of smacking it once it lands on us.

slow down and dont try and catch all moves..just the more obvious ones. Good luck.

p.s. - i am guilty of this at times..and have to smack myself at times.
being patient waiting is a lot harder than one would think.. i have to admit i did break most of my rules about entry already
  • #119,771
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:15am Feb 11, 2009 6:15am
Ty both Abu and Jammer. I know exactly what you are talking about as I'm one of those with "herd mentality" and paying a dear price most of the times.
  • #119,772
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:18am Feb 11, 2009 6:18am
Quoting nAVIN2007
yes i see..i am gulity of this..i entered the trade but i was bullish till 1.53 and i had 120 pips profit and that turned into a massive losser, i stuck in the trade and i thought the resistance wasnt big enough , i guess news bought cable down or the blasted trend..
WOW Nav - when i'm in a +60 pip run i'm ready to take em... +100 again i would take instantly. Even if the trend continues, i can always pop back in ... (mind you thats scalping talk from me)
  • #119,773
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:20am Feb 11, 2009 6:20am
Quoting nAVIN2007
yes i see..i am gulity of this..i entered the trade but i was bullish till 1.53 and i had 120 pips profit and that turned into a massive losser, i stuck in the trade and i thought the resistance wasnt big enough , i guess news bought cable down or the blasted trend..
nAvin...if you look at the daily for g/u...you will notice that it is in a bearish trend. The news and market conditions just turned the immediate bullish run back down just recently.

All I am doing now is trading the immediate event. No dreams or views on trends. the swings are too big.

Even then..all i am doing is worried about keeping my accounts in profits..in the black. Forget about making a big killing..just staying alive is paramount.

good luck
  • #119,774
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:36am Feb 11, 2009 6:36am
Quoting Madonher
WOW Nav - when i'm in a +60 pip run i'm ready to take em... +100 again i would take instantly. Even if the trend continues, i can always pop back in ... (mind you thats scalping talk from me)
I am stating this in all good intentions nav...

placing a +BE should be minimum, then running the SL upward toward profits at 50% mid point as it increases should be your norm. Consider it a manual Trailing Stop proceedure..that is what I do.

Yes..sometimes my trade gets closed out..but..I still walk away with profit.


Don't beat yourself up too badly navin...it has been a very difficult week for most all.
As you can see...only a few are posting any gains...and they are not posting all trades...only those that they are proud of.

I wish I did not trade today..its been win and lose...and not real gain at all..only questioning my actions.
good luck....

oh, forgot to add...I never walk away from a trade unless I have secured the +BE in place.


And if in big profits..I move SL up to 50% and then turn on auto TS.
  • #119,775
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:56am Feb 11, 2009 6:56am
My plans for the next 3 months....

1. Place my personal and financial matters in order in USA
a. Sell my cars.
b. Rent out my home(s)
c. Secure my bank account back in Kowloon, China. (Hong Knog)
d. give away my plants..lol
2. Moving back to Taipei or Hong Kong ... like trading during daylight hours..
3. Cost of living much cheaper in regions outside of USA.
4. Make my life simple and alive

To me...the USA seems to be like Epcot Center...lovely..but not the real thing. USA non-travelers tend to isolate themselves from most of the world.
Dont get me wrong..i love usa...and when i return..i feel safe again..but its as my foreign friends call it..the quiet place. Nothing ever extreme.
We'll, one good thing for this economic meltdown.... it's making USA citizens more aware of world events.
  • #119,776
  • Feb 11, 2009 7:04am Feb 11, 2009 7:04am
what do u guys think that will gu break 1.4330 level?I think its the major support and if its broken,it will go near around 1.36xxWhat u guys think
  • #119,777
  • Feb 11, 2009 7:05am Feb 11, 2009 7:05am
U.S. trade balance data comes out in 25 min....
  • #119,778
  • Feb 11, 2009 7:07am Feb 11, 2009 7:07am
Quoting joemiami
U.S. trade balance data comes out in 25 min....
what do u think that will it be +ve for US$ or bad for $?

secondly will it have some affect on gu?
  • #119,779
  • Feb 11, 2009 7:23am Feb 11, 2009 7:23am
Quoting ammarmemon
what do u think that will it be +ve for US$ or bad for $?

secondly will it have some affect on gu?
If the release is > -37b, then good for the USD, gbpusd goes down. If the value is < -37b, bad for the USD in the short term. And if the value is < -40.4, that would be a very big move up in the gbpusd.
Analyst expectations are at -37b. I guess its best to watch by the sideline if your not in a trade. Else, be prepared and watch the value as it unfolds...
  • #119,780
  • Feb 11, 2009 7:27am Feb 11, 2009 7:27am
Quoting juanchoc
If the release is > -37b, then good for the USD, gbpusd goes down. If the value is < -37b, bad for the USD in the short term. And if the value is < -40.4, that would be a very big move up in the gbpusd.
Analyst expectations are at -37b. I guess its best to watch by the sideline if your not in a trade. Else, be prepared and watch the value as it unfolds...

err......ever heard of the concept of 'risk aversion'....????
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