Cable Update (GBPUSD)

From UBS Bank...

you knew Iran was going to pop into the mix sooner than later.

Is this the reason to ramp hostilities into full gear and start any military action? If anything happens to the British soldiers, there is the chance you might get another willing coalition to back pre-emptive strikes on Iran.

I belong to a conspiracy message board and there has been talk for months about Israel getting ready for something, anyone read that passover travel warning story that was circulating? Maybe, just maybe all the signs are already there and we're just slowly and surely marching on the path to our ultimate destruction!!!!

sorry, enough doom and gloom and off topic ramblings from me. Where's this market going? And what influence will control trading direction? fundamentals and data, emotions or something even more sinister? muahahaha (attempt at an evil laugh)

uranium enrichement + change currency + UK troop hijack. What's next in this damn corner of the world... - sorry mid-easterns, but this corner of the world is much more a men slaughter house than anything else...

There were indeed talks on Israel nuking Iran to smoke out their underground uranium enrichement facilities. That was on news not only on conspiracy theories forums (that I love, BTW. What's the address?)

My problem is: I assumed a position that had 99,9% of success. 0.1% was in case of a EURJPY selloff. GUESS WHAT? Geopolitical instability -> Carry carnage -> I'm down the drain right now...

F'n Friday....

What's more is the fact that Russia is no longer supporting them. They demand to be paid for works done on plants in Iran. In an ultimatum kind of way which could mean a lot. Time will tell

As in my post earlier, you need to know what will happen/where will the pairs move in case of sudden speculator funds' pullback.
Anyway, so far US is still in NATO (No Action Talk Only) mode tho.

Wow... just ejected myself from this lousy longs UJ with this move...

wheeeeww....

Now I'm down the drain with Euro only...

F'n Friday...

It looks like a instable situation so far.

Iran said it was Iraninan waters, UK said it was Iraquis. Was it Iraquis, UK troops have authority to perform inspections in vessels, given by UN.

Let's see now if those FREAKING GENIUSES are going to be able to figure out WHOSE DAMN WATERS it happened in....

I don't see that kind of committement when it comes to fighting hunger and AIDS in Africa. Damn Planet.

F'n Friday..

1.9614 area is the support, will dive if it's broken.

down on euro with you, but i think i have different goals and plans with my trade than you, so i'm not too concerned yet. Hope you have a ultimate stop and idea of what you want out of that trade.

don't know if its against the rules, but the conspiracy site is abovetopsecret.com, nothing forex related.

Stock markets around the world have bounced strongly this week, following the turmoil earlier this month.

In no small part, this was down to the Federal Reserve changing the wording on its latest interest rate statement on Wednesday. It left the key US interest rate exactly where it was, but indicated it was slightly more worried about growth, and a little less concerned about inflation.

Why do the markets think that's good news? Because it means the chances of an interest rate cut have risen. Now given that inflation has a tendency to surprise on the upside at the moment, we're not so sure that a rate cut will appear as quickly as the market hopes.
But in any case, it's ironic that the prospect of easier lending criteria is getting the market excited. After all, it's slack lending that got everyone into trouble in the first place...

While the Fed was getting the markets excited with the prospect of the 'Bernanke put' (the 'Greenspan put' refers to Ben Bernanke's predecessor's habit of always cutting interest rates every time the US economy was threatened with the tiniest bit of discomfort), a group of Senators was berating both the Fed and the lending industry over the sub-prime mortgage debacle.
The Washington Times reports that the Senate Banking Committee argued that the practice of doling out home loans to people who couldn’t afford them - particularly mortgages with an initial low rate, which then surges, rendering it seriously unaffordable - should not have been allowed to continue for so long.
Senators from both sides of the political divide feigned outrage and disbelief at the lack of responsibility on the behalf of lenders. "It just seems to me that you were asleep at the switch," said Senator Robert Menendez.
The lenders tried to defend themselves. Sandor Samuels of Countrywide warned that stricter standards would have meant that about half of the subprime loans made during the housing boom would not have been made.
"An appropriate balance must be struck between maintaining affordability and lessening payment shock. Wherever you draw the line, someone will be shut out of the market." And that of course, could "materially reduce housing demand", which as everyone, including the Senators, knew, has been the main thing keeping the US economy afloat for the past few years.
But last time we looked, that's the point of having credit standards - to stop people who can't or won't pay from getting access to loans. That of course means that affordability puts a natural ceiling on just how far prices can rise - but then, prices can't go up forever, not even property prices.

Meanwhile, it wasn’t just the lenders coming in for flack - Senators criticised both the Fed and the state regulators for not being stricter with the lenders. Joseph Smith, North Carolina’s commissioner of banks, tried to cover his back by arguing that they simply couldn’t believe just how irresponsible lenders and investors had been.
“What has been stunning to me is: Where is the market discipline? We did naively assume that up the line, lenders and securitisers were doing due diligence.”
It’s the naivety of all these high-ranking officials that we find stunning - we have to hope that it’s a straightforward backside-covering exercise, because to believe that they are genuinely this bad at grasping how markets work, is just frightening.

You want to know what happened to the due diligence, Joe? This is roughly how it went. The hedge funds said “Wow, look at the size of the yield we can get from investing in mortgage-backed securities (MBSs)- we want more! The riskier the better - after all, we're hedge funds, we know what we're doing!"
The securitisers - the investment banks who parcel the loans up into MBSs in the first place - said “Wow, look at all the money we can make by selling MBSs to hedge funds - we want more loans to parcel up! Who wants credit? After all, we're selling these things in packs of 100 at a time - they can't ALL go bad!”
The sub-prime lenders - who were extended lines of credit by the securitisers in order to offer mortgages - said “Wow! Look at all the money we can make by selling these loans to securitisers - they'll buy anything! Who wants a house? ”
And at the end of the chain, Mr Sub-prime, who thought his lack of income, assets or sound credit history would forever disqualify him from getting on board the housing gravy train, found himself being offered a dirt-cheap housing loan, no questions asked. His due diligence, on which this Ponzi scheme relied, stretched as far as saying “Where do I sign?”

It’s called a credit bubble. And now the markets are getting all excited that Mr Bernanke is going to try the same trick yet again to prop up the US as the housing fall-out gets worse.
The trouble is, it won’t work this time. Because even if the Fed relaxes its lending criteria, the lenders are now in a position where they have to tighten up their lending standards, like it or not. The same thing happened in Japan - the main rate might have hit zero, but by then the banks were far too indebted and scared to lend money to the man in the street.
Japan’s only just now, warily and unsteadily, coming out of its near two-decade slump - we wonder how long it will take the US to recover from the current credit implosion.

My plans were Euro up. But then comes Mr. Bernanke, change the FED's bias to what nobody understood and here we are. NYC started selling dollars, then turned to buying dollars and today started selling dollars and now it is buying dollars...

"Every $#@$@ you make"....

I'll just get the hang of this xxcxxxg market, start to make a decent laid back living - and - poooof! (or is it puuuuf!) "Is St Peter in?"

i just wont to be on the 600s page 2...thx for letting me...

wow.. it's huge... thanks... nice reading for choppy days.

The same thing happened over a year ago, some Iranian hotheads kidnapped a couple of boat loads of Brits on patrol. Kept them a couple of weeks, treated them well and then returned them unharmed. However, they kept the boats - fast patrol launches and all their gear. Lets hope that this is another "fishing expedition"

Just pulled all my positions and wiped out good part of the week profits...

Had 5 opportunities to get out this morning with decent weekly profit, but got too greedy...

Greed costs and market sends the bill...

Calling it a week and regrouping for the new week...

F'n Friday...

Well done, cesarnc. Who says fundamentalist can't trade? lol

Btw, we're on 8999th and 9000th post respectively.

WOULD YOU MIND DIVIDE THE PAGE # BY YOUR LAST POST #?



you gonna love this de123

Johnnie Walker arriving earlier after that one... I'm out for good..........

well I just keep making my average lower. probably go into the weekend with my base of 2 euro longs..big stop, big limit and see what happens.

hope you all have a great weekend

Of course, there are 15 posts per page.

Coincidentally, cable is at around 9600 [9000 + 600] also now.