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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #119,021
  • Feb 7, 2009 11:21am Feb 7, 2009 11:21am
The other thing about that ma is it has been weakened somewhat.Might be a good buy when retested if taken.

It is not fully charged.

Quoting Bones
I have no idea how we will open on Sunday,but there is no short signal on my daily chart at all.
The trend line is weak,the ma is respected,the rising trend is healthy.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #119,022
  • Feb 7, 2009 11:27am Feb 7, 2009 11:27am
Hey All,

I am a newbie to the board, but have been keeping eyes over the last couple weeks, just joined for posting privileges, maybe add my technie view.

I would like to start by thanking all of you for posting your technical analysis and play strategies, they have been informative and helpful, you can never have too much information.

I have a trading style based on a glorified self correcting fib system that thus far has been more true then my trading, Dammit I hate getting head faked!

Over the last few days I have taken my brain off line and decided to just trust the charts and as things would go, it works a lot better, emotion is the true Achilles heal of market traders, to be sure.

A look at the week(s) ahead, the charts tell me that we are still going to run bullish. We have as of Thursday pierced and Friday played over a daily resistance point at 1.462x, which means we should be expecting the completion of the cycle back to 1.5372+ area. That being said, there will be some stop and resting grounds in the immediate next couple of days, I do believe that a small fall back and consolidation area is possible, showing support ranges down to bottom 1.447x area.

FWIW, those be my 2 cents, as a shorter term scalper, I will just play the charts as they toss n turn.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #119,023
  • Feb 7, 2009 3:47pm Feb 7, 2009 3:47pm
What would a passing vote of the US stimulus proposal that is in the works this weekend and tentatively trying to get to a floor vote on Monday; do in regard to the GBP/USD? Would a passing vote strengthen or weaken the USD?
  • #119,024
  • Feb 7, 2009 5:20pm Feb 7, 2009 5:20pm
Quoting Bones
Well I was thinking that as the rate cuts feed through, money is being pumped into the economy at a huge rate.
The perception of property as an investment in the UK is very strong ,the last few generations have done very well out of property and quite frankly there is no where near enough of it to go round
I know people whose mortgage has already halved or more. It is easily seen with the latest retail sales and house prices etc, people are spending again
[font=Calibri][size=3]If...
one BIG factor......the job market,it can leave FEAR in the working population,so if they are worried about losing their jobs,they may curtail spending.
those that lose jobs,will burden the Social / welfare Dept,and also no spending.
Personal insolvancy IS rising and so is Small Buisness going Bust.
Uk is not out of the woods yet,BUT than niether is the US.
So all we can do is LET the charts guide us.

take care

baz
  • #119,025
  • Feb 7, 2009 6:11pm Feb 7, 2009 6:11pm
i agree with u baz. I dont like to let the news sway my judgement personally, Im a believer in everything being on the charts. However it doesnt hurt to know about the news, infact some people cud probably trade it successfully.
One thing tho the uk is most deffinatly not out of the woods, this is just the beggining. House prices are still too high they have a long way to go yet. As baz states businesses are going bust, people are being laid off left right and center, and banks arnt providing loans. Its gna be a few years before we reach a bottem and things start to recover.
I dont know if anyone has looked at a uk house price index chart, but there is a re-curring pattern that is clearly visable on it. Every century there is a drop, not only that but it drops down to the level when it was at its peak the previous century. The last peak we had was around £110k, and its currently around £163k, although tbh they dont seem to have dropped much at all when iv read the papers. Anyway I wud expect prices to drop to atleast £110k, which seems a little crazy. Also the drops typically last a 3rd more than the previous decline. The last drop lasted for 5 years.
Its actually an exciting time for a young person atm, there will be a chance to buy property fairly cheap, with good future return prospects.
  • #119,026
  • Feb 7, 2009 8:47pm Feb 7, 2009 8:47pm
On my chart cable. not yet testing for trend lines..
Going chart if his closed below trend lines

rg
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: my chart.gif Size: 42 KB
  • #119,027
  • Feb 7, 2009 11:43pm Feb 7, 2009 11:43pm
Quoting pmn100
Hi eohater. Don't know if you'll see this but an explaination on the trade would be great.

Thanks
Here's my reason for taking the short.

1. Wicks of the two candles circled on my 15m chart, are matching at 4847. After both candles closed, some like to call these tweezers. These candles together typically support a change in direction.
2. Quick glance at the first candle circled on the 15m chart, it has notbottom tail, the body and the wick are about equal. Sellers are coming into the market or profit is being taken, which ever point of view you want.
3. We were near the 1h upper channel trendline.
4. Time of day and end of the week were a factor
5. My risk to reward was extremely low. I had a 20pip SL I put on the trade once I get into the market. After the 15m candle closed that I entered on, I secured +3 and let her run. I could have closed it out within 18m of being in the trade for 60 pips. I didn't close it out right away because of my overall bearish view of cable. I would have loved to have seen a pin on Friday, but that was not the case. I did close before my broker closed for the weekend for some nice pippage.

Trade well!
EO
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.jpg Size: 141 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chart2.jpg Size: 132 KB
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #119,028
  • Feb 7, 2009 11:57pm Feb 7, 2009 11:57pm
Quoting eohater
Here's my reason for taking the short.

1. Wicks of the two candles circled on my 15m chart, are matching at 4847. After both candles closed, some like to call these tweezers. These candles together typically support a change in direction.
2. Quick glance at the first candle circled on the 15m chart, it has notbottom tail, the body and the wick are about equal. Sellers are coming into the market or profit is being taken, which ever point of view you want.
3. We were near the 1h upper channel trendline.
4. Time of day and end of the week were a...
Nice job bro.......

HOLLA
  • #119,029
  • Feb 8, 2009 7:01am Feb 8, 2009 7:01am
Of course I agee with you Baz ,we are not out the woods yet,maybe I'm a bit early in saying,but once spending starts.
This is a personal belief actually I am 100 % tech.





Quoting baz
one BIG factor......the job market,it can leave FEAR in the working population,so if they are worried about losing their jobs,they may curtail spending.
those that lose jobs,will burden the Social / welfare Dept,and also no spending.
Personal insolvancy IS rising and so is Small Buisness going Bust.
Uk is not out of the woods yet,BUT than niether is the US.
So all we can do is LET the charts guide us.

take care

baz
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #119,030
  • Feb 8, 2009 7:03am Feb 8, 2009 7:03am
I totally disagree on this if 1 % interest rates are held with house prices as they are housing is to become very affordable indeed its a very simple observation.

Quoting fry2010
i agree with u baz. I dont like to let the news sway my judgement personally, Im a believer in everything being on the charts. However it doesnt hurt to know about the news, infact some people cud probably trade it successfully.
One thing tho the uk is most deffinatly not out of the woods, this is just the beggining. House prices are still too high they have a long way to go yet. As baz states businesses are going bust, people are being laid off left right and center, and banks arnt providing loans. Its gna be a few years before we reach a bottem...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #119,031
  • Feb 8, 2009 7:05am Feb 8, 2009 7:05am
Like many brits every spare penny Ive ever earned is in property ,so I may be bias,lol
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #119,032
  • Feb 8, 2009 7:51am Feb 8, 2009 7:51am
GU week results:[07.02.2009 0:12:54] forexautotrading говорит: 382461992009.02.06 19:06sell
0.10gbpusd1.477681.489971.45995
2009.02.06 20:021.479710.000.00
0.00-20.30
382464542009.02.06 19:10sell
1.00gbpusd1.479651.492551.47955
2009.02.06 20:021.479600.000.00
0.005.00
382486292009.02.06 19:36sell
1.00gbpusd1.482451.492891.47989
2009.02.06 20:021.479890.000.00
0.00256.00
382508972009.02.06 20:04sell
0.10gbpusd1.480151.490091.47711
2009.02.06 20:061.479970.000.00
0.001.80
382518852009.02.06 20:16sell
0.10gbpusd1.478171.488561.47556
2009.02.06 20:291.477800.000.00
0.003.70
382527342009.02.06 20:30sell
0.10gbpusd1.478341.488821.47582
2009.02.06 21:051.478010.000.00
0.003.30
382530272009.02.06 20:35sell
0.10gbpusd1.479951.490321.47728
2009.02.06 20:441.479670.000.00
0.002.80
382532892009.02.06 20:42buy
0.30gbpusd1.481570.000001.48378
2009.02.06 21:181.478780.000.00
0.00-83.70
382533312009.02.06 20:43sell
0.30gbpusd1.479830.000000.00000
2009.02.06 20:441.479670.000.00
0.004.80
382536192009.02.06 20:51buy
0.30gbpusd1.479850.000001.48261
2009.02.06 20:521.479990.000.00
0.004.20
382537072009.02.06 20:54buy
0.30gbpusd1.480060.000001.48284
2009.02.06 21:181.478960.000.00
0.00-33.00
382538092009.02.06 20:57sell
0.60gbpusd1.479360.000001.47645
2009.02.06 21:051.478750.000.00
0.0036.60
382539552009.02.06 20:59buy
0.20gbpusd1.479890.000001.48291
2009.02.06 21:181.479020.000.00
0.00-17.40
382539622009.02.06 21:00buy
0.20gbpusd1.480240.000001.48283
2009.02.06 21:181.478960.000.00
0.00-25.60
382541192009.02.06 21:03sell
0.40gbpusd1.479460.000000.00000
2009.02.06 21:051.478810.000.00
0.0026.00
382545312009.02.06 21:11buy
1.10gbpusd1.477770.000001.48071
2009.02.06 21:141.478800.000.00
0.00113.30
382547862009.02.06 21:20buy
0.10gbpusd1.478911.468861.48186
2009.02.06 21:211.479130.000.00
0.002.20
382548692009.02.06 21:23buy
0.10gbpusd1.479951.469821.48115
2009.02.06 21:431.480270.000.00
0.003.20
382557642009.02.06 21:55buy
0.10gbpusd1.479470.000001.48135
2009.02.06 21:561.479630.000.00
0.001.60
382558822009.02.06 21:57buy
0.10gbpusd1.480340.000001.48219
2009.02.06 22:001.480580.000.00
0.002.40
0.00 0.00 4.83 7 703.00
Closed P/L: 7 707.83
Open Trades:
TicketOpen TimeTypeSize
Item PriceS / LT / P
PriceCommissionTaxesSwap
Profit
No transactions
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Floating P/L: 0.00
Working Orders:
TicketOpen TimeTypeSize
Item PriceS / LT / PMarket Price
No transactions

Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal: 3 000.00 Credit Facility: 0.00
Closed Trade P/L: 7 707.83 Floating P/L:
0.00 Margin: 0.00
Balance: 10 707.83 Equity: 10 707.83 Free Margin: 10 707.83
  • #119,033
  • Feb 8, 2009 7:55am Feb 8, 2009 7:55am
Hey bones, just take a look at the average house price index chart u tell me what u see. I agree house will become very affordable but not any time soon.
My dad owns 8 properties and rents them out he believes its likley to last nearer 8-10 years.
  • #119,034
  • Feb 8, 2009 9:32am Feb 8, 2009 9:32am
Hi Fry ,then your dad is a typical Brit ,who have invested in the Buy to let,which at the IR we are talking about is about to become way more profitable,maybe after a few months confidence he may add to his portfolio.
Its not going to happen over night but

Maybe if you could chart it the result below would be a pin bar ,lol

Remmember this result is for the month of Jan normally a slow month???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: halifax house price.png Size: 4 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #119,035
  • Feb 8, 2009 9:46am Feb 8, 2009 9:46am
well, maybe ur right. wud be good news for him, bad news for me if it does continue to rise in few months im likly never to be able to afford property.
That month you show tho is only 1 month, the chart im talking about is complete history from 1930's. If u see that chart u see we are stil very high up in the bubble. Of course there will be temperary corrections but the long term outlook is down imo.
  • #119,036
  • Feb 8, 2009 10:06am Feb 8, 2009 10:06am
Maybe you can post the chart Fry,If you look on that result above the month before was in the green too tho neg.
Whats need of course is credit to free up.The banks have been busy not passing on the drops so far creaming off the top after losses,but eventually they will pass on.
These are the lowest rates weve ever seen.
Im not just talking about domestic input of money ,what about business that borrow ,the implications are huge imo.
The next problem we will be looking at is inflation.
But like I say I am a tech trader ,tho I am in the propety market in the UK.


Quoting fry2010
well, maybe ur right. wud be good news for him, bad news for me if it does continue to rise in few months im likly never to be able to afford property.
That month you show tho is only 1 month, the chart im talking about is complete history from 1930's. If u see that chart u see we are stil very high up in the bubble. Of course there will be temperary corrections but the long term outlook is down imo.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #119,037
  • Feb 8, 2009 10:11am Feb 8, 2009 10:11am
Quoting Bones
Maybe you can post the chart Fry,If you look on that result above the month before was in the green too tho neg.
Whats need of course is credit to free up.The banks have been busy not passing on the drops so far creaming off the top after losses,but eventually they will pass on.
These are the lowest rates weve ever seen.
Im not just talking about domestic input of money ,what about business that borrow ,the implications are huge imo.
The next problem we will be looking at is inflation.
But like I say I am a tech trader ,tho I am in the propety market...
Tony
looks like you have a Mansion !!!.

baz
  • #119,038
  • Feb 8, 2009 10:13am Feb 8, 2009 10:13am
I am a lucky person Baz ,thats all I could say ,Ive been lucky with property,lol


Quoting baz
Tony
looks like you have a Mansion !!!.

baz
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #119,039
  • Feb 8, 2009 11:22am Feb 8, 2009 11:22am
Quoting Bones
I am a lucky person Baz ,thats all I could say ,Ive been lucky with property,lol
i have a Cousin,he was a Solicitor,and went into Property,by DEFAULT,around 7 years ago.
He is no longer a practising Solicitor,and has a PORTFOLIO of +80 residential properties.
So i need to wait for the UpTurn,and diversify as well.
Anyway,good luck with your portfolio as well.

baz
  • #119,040
  • Feb 8, 2009 12:07pm Feb 8, 2009 12:07pm
This isnt the exact chart im refering too as I cant find it anymore, saw it a few weeks ago now. But it shows the same thing.
Attached Image
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