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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #8,941
  • Mar 22, 2007 5:56pm Mar 22, 2007 5:56pm
Quoting leelee75k
now I just have to ask, what signals are suggesting 199?
Leelee, I'm dying to see you taking profit at 99



Beer will be on you
  • #8,942
  • Mar 22, 2007 6:05pm Mar 22, 2007 6:05pm
I am either going to make a fortune or lose one at 99, probably start having nightmares tonight.


  • #8,943
  • Mar 22, 2007 6:38pm Mar 22, 2007 6:38pm
It is a bit of a surprise to see the mkt changing interpretation of the FOMC statement in just 1 day on the mere better than exp i/c and officials" comments to soothe uncertainties. US yields are up, FF futures are back to the pre-FOMC level, and so as the [EUR/DLR]. The pair eventually fell to 1.3311. The sell off through 1.3340 on stops was the key move o/n as it has mostly erased the rally from 1.3305-00. The NY reactionary high of 1.3337 would be watched for the immediate resistance. Basically the pair's uptrend is maintained. 1.3340-00 is still the buying zone. Caution would be needed in the n/t h/ever if 1.3280-70 gives way.
  • #8,944
  • Mar 22, 2007 6:39pm Mar 22, 2007 6:39pm
Quoting cesarnc
It is a bit of a surprise to see the mkt changing interpretation of the FOMC statement in just 1 day on the mere better than exp i/c and officials" comments to soothe uncertainties. US yields are up, FF futures are back to the pre-FOMC level, and so as the [EUR/DLR]. The pair eventually fell to 1.3311. The sell off through 1.3340 on stops was the key move o/n as it has mostly erased the rally from 1.3305-00. The NY reactionary high of 1.3337 would be watched for the immediate resistance. Basically the pair's uptrend is maintained. 1.3340-00 is still the buying zone. Caution would be needed in the n/t h/ever if 1.3280-70 gives way.
It was a hell of a surprise to me... Specially coming out of a great nap this afternoon.
  • #8,945
  • Mar 22, 2007 6:47pm Mar 22, 2007 6:47pm
the surprise wasn't the drop but how far it went. I really expected support around 3330-25, that extra drop down to 3311 scared me. I'm still cautious and any breach of 3300 will really make me reconsider holding any longs over an extended period of time.
  • #8,946
  • Mar 22, 2007 10:25pm Mar 22, 2007 10:25pm
Quoting cesarnc
It is a bit of a surprise to see the mkt changing interpretation of the FOMC statement in just 1 day on the mere better than exp i/c and officials" comments to soothe uncertainties. US yields are up, FF futures are back to the pre-FOMC level, and so as the [EUR/DLR]. The pair eventually fell to 1.3311. The sell off through 1.3340 on stops was the key move o/n as it has mostly erased the rally from 1.3305-00. The NY reactionary high of 1.3337 would be watched for the immediate resistance. Basically the pair's uptrend is maintained. 1.3340-00 is still the buying zone. Caution would be needed in the n/t h/ever if 1.3280-70 gives way.
What is suprising? News is supposed to give us the real fundamentals but in this world of "cooked books" what is real. Once again, news is not important (beyond the amatuer hour)€ , oops, fruedian slip, what is important is how the market reacts. They lie, they told the truth, no they manipulated the truth (news), no news (truth), oh hell, lets watch CNN. Watch and trade, leave interpretation to the those who don't trade! They will swear less, , and sound like they know more.

Brad
  • #8,947
  • Mar 22, 2007 10:30pm Mar 22, 2007 10:30pm
Quoting faure
This is/was such a phony move! I bet so many people just had their trailing stops tripped. XAU is actually moving higher against the dollar. By the time London rolls around we'll be back to above 9650. This was a good washout so we can move higher tomorrow. I'll start to change my view when the EU gets below 3300.

So you actually are trading this market with trailing stops? What have you found works?

Thanks
Brad
  • #8,948
  • Mar 22, 2007 10:32pm Mar 22, 2007 10:32pm
Quoting cesarnc
We have to admire a lady when we see one....

She is charming, isn't she?
Damn. I need to save this one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #8,949
  • Mar 22, 2007 10:39pm Mar 22, 2007 10:39pm
Quoting cesarnc
[A USD BULL CONFESSES] There are times when a confession can prove cathartic, and today is that time. The Usd's ability to weather the storms which have inevitably blown up around the end of the Fed's cycle is impressive. Couple that with the flexibility of the US economy which will allow it to overcome current problems, and the Usd is a l/t buy.

Also grabbed a nice long at 3317 Euro... Whatta hell, it was screaming "Buy me!! Buy me!!! "...

I am cornfused?
  • #8,950
  • Mar 22, 2007 10:51pm Mar 22, 2007 10:51pm
Quoting ~Shard~
Apologies for my ignorance but I am unfamiliar with pin bars. Could you please explain? I am assuming this is a strong buy signal?

Thanks in advance.
Pin bars should look the same as when your lady says "I hope you don't expect after ignoring me all night there is a use for that!"
  • #8,951
  • Mar 22, 2007 11:00pm Mar 22, 2007 11:00pm
Xcuse me to interupt, i have been told forex trader on this forum were ok. But how can you speculate so much about GBP going higher if you understand the fundamentals of currencies. Are you just playing around making some pips and losing some pips or you are trading for real?

On what i see you are trading for fun.

For info... Please study the market... cable will never, until a big change... (and not this year) reach the 2. ?

The gbp is mainly high due to his support by the Americans...
Enough said, what if American economy decrease? the cable go up for a short time due to volatility but that doesnt mean nothing if your looking to make money on the forex.

The point is that charts trader should never speculate on where the market is going. Its ok to trade on charts for fun. But thats not the game of forex. Thats how big guys in forex are making small money...
  • #8,952
  • Mar 22, 2007 11:55pm Mar 22, 2007 11:55pm
Quoting Expos
For info... Please study the market... cable will never, until a big change... (and not this year) reach the 2. ?

The gbp is mainly high due to his support by the Americans...
Dear friend, I am a newbie trader in learning stage and interesting to what you said in above. Would you like to tell me more about:

1. Why have GBP been supported by US economy? What kind of data or fact we can observe this conclusion? Is it based on carry trade?
2. Why not reach 2 at this year? How do you find the number in top and why? If it is not 2, how much high do you think? 1.97? 1.99?

Thanks in advance for any answer, or, anyone would like to answer....
- Ray Tracy - Novice forex trader from GMT+8
  • #8,953
  • Mar 23, 2007 1:27am Mar 23, 2007 1:27am
Quoting Bradone
What is suprising? News is supposed to give us the real fundamentals but in this world of "cooked books" what is real. Once again, news is not important (beyond the amatuer hour)€ , oops, fruedian slip, what is important is how the market reacts. They lie, they told the truth, no they manipulated the truth (news), no news (truth), oh hell, lets watch CNN. Watch and trade, leave interpretation to the those who don't trade! They will swear less, , and sound like they know more.

Brad
i agree.

however, i don't like your amateur hour comment.

one news may not be a factor exactly in accordance with what you have just typed. there is no definite in fundamental nor technical analysis. out comes 10 news in one day, excluding the 5 you may not have heard yet or have no access to and you'll find some will move the market accordingly.

this is the same with technicals as well.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #8,954
  • Mar 23, 2007 2:44am Mar 23, 2007 2:44am
Quoting raytracy
Dear friend, I am a newbie trader in learning stage and interesting to what you said in above. Would you like to tell me more about:

1. Why have GBP been supported by US economy? What kind of data or fact we can observe this conclusion? Is it based on carry trade?
2. Why not reach 2 at this year? How do you find the number in top and why? If it is not 2, how much high do you think? 1.97? 1.99?

Thanks in advance for any answer, or, anyone would like to answer....
Thanks Expos and raytracy, i'm also waiting to see what some experienced traders can say.

I was flipping through the pages and am unable to find the nonsensical thread we used to have here, wonder if it's been taken out.
Still waters run deep
  • #8,955
  • Mar 23, 2007 3:21am Mar 23, 2007 3:21am
Quoting raytracy
Dear friend, I am a newbie trader in learning stage and interesting to what you said in above. Would you like to tell me more about:

1. Why have GBP been supported by US economy? What kind of data or fact we can observe this conclusion? Is it based on carry trade?
2. Why not reach 2 at this year? How do you find the number in top and why? If it is not 2, how much high do you think? 1.97? 1.99?

Thanks in advance for any answer, or, anyone would like to answer....
I'm also a newbie trader here. I just wanna give my opinions.

GBP has never been supported by US economy, but it has been supported by speculators, mainly from US (large banks). Net speculative GBP being held currently is very big now (I guess, anyone knows how or where to get the accurate number?), and once it's saturated, meaning there's no more GBP buyer left, all those speculators will release their holdings of GBP and buy USD back. What we don't know is when it will happen. Last time it happened significantly was during the famous Soros' GBP dumping in 1992.

Same thing applies to stocks and bonds and all derivatives markets.
I don't know whether it's true or not, but once all speculators pull back all their funds from markets, global economic depression/crisis will happen. World economy is at speculators' hand and mercy. What a danger.

Opinions are welcome. Flames are welcome too lol.
Tra-X
  • #8,956
  • Mar 23, 2007 3:45am Mar 23, 2007 3:45am
Sorry i was a bit insulting, I just realize, that was by no mean.

Anyway when i was speaking about fundamentals I didn'T mean about news that were coming out everyday. But more about The fundamental behind the currencies in a longer view.

Banks in US have many reasons to support Birtish economy, and this goes further then the money aspect.

Unfortunatly, internet is really missing lots of info on that matter but if you search a little you can find something.

Watch for options.
  • #8,957
  • Mar 23, 2007 3:46am Mar 23, 2007 3:46am
Quoting cesarnc
An idea just came about here... What a nice beer can't make to us:

UJ is holding just above 118. Note that on the huge dollar selloff, UJ stalled, backed by the surge on the carries.

So, a potencially good Asian stock market will help carry recovery or at least is likely to stall the UJ on a possible dollar selloff... So Long USDJPY is likely to hold small drawdown while our majors/USD long soar.

In the other hand, a possible dollar buyout through the Asian session is likely to boost USDYen with its crosses, too, buffering the losses in the majors/USD.

That put, UJ may be an insurance in case our Majors/USD long are under seige.

What do think about it?
Strategy worked out fine during Asia...

Just TP a last lot Cable for 70 pips in this move 9687 since it is carry related only.

Still holding longs Euro (some looking good, some not) and UJ 118.06, still awaiting return above 118 for the day, since there was this GJ move up back above 232....

Needa coffee....
  • #8,958
  • Mar 23, 2007 4:02am Mar 23, 2007 4:02am
Quoting cesarnc

Just TP a last lot Cable for 70 pips in this move 9687 since it is carry related only.
How about that one?


Bumpy Friday this one is gonna be...
  • #8,959
  • Mar 23, 2007 4:09am Mar 23, 2007 4:09am
Quoting cesarnc
How about that one?


Bumpy Friday this one is gonna be...
Since you and Hazz are so good, one is a carry expert and the other an indicator expert, if we have a friendly competition, i wonder who will fair better with a 10k account for a 1 week period, lol.
Still waters run deep
  • #8,960
  • Mar 23, 2007 4:14am Mar 23, 2007 4:14am
Major selloff across the board... WFT?
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