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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #8,921
  • Mar 22, 2007 2:02pm Mar 22, 2007 2:02pm
[A USD BULL CONFESSES] There are times when a confession can prove cathartic, and today is that time. The Usd's ability to weather the storms which have inevitably blown up around the end of the Fed's cycle is impressive. Couple that with the flexibility of the US economy which will allow it to overcome current problems, and the Usd is a l/t buy.

  • #8,922
  • Mar 22, 2007 2:08pm Mar 22, 2007 2:08pm
Just noticed....

If this actual 4hr candle closes above 9670 we'll have a monster pin-bar...

I'll load my longs heavy and will even buy a couple of Englishmen too to sell skyhigh.....

20 pips and 52 min to go....
  • #8,923
  • Mar 22, 2007 2:10pm Mar 22, 2007 2:10pm
Quoting cesarnc
Just noticed....

If this actual 4hr candle closes above 9670 we'll have a monster pin-bar...

I'll load my longs heavy and will even buy a couple of Englishmen too to sell skyhigh.....

20 pips and 52 min to go....
Apologies for my ignorance but I am unfamiliar with pin bars. Could you please explain? I am assuming this is a strong buy signal?

Thanks in advance.
  • #8,924
  • Mar 22, 2007 2:14pm Mar 22, 2007 2:14pm
Quoting ~Shard~
Apologies for my ignorance but I am unfamiliar with pin bars. Could you please explain? I am assuming this is a strong buy signal?

Thanks in advance.
Better check here... So will help everybody...
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Pin Bars.pdf   175 KB | 514 downloads
  • #8,925
  • Mar 22, 2007 2:16pm Mar 22, 2007 2:16pm
Quoting cesarnc
Better check here... So will help everybody...
Thanks.
  • #8,926
  • Mar 22, 2007 2:28pm Mar 22, 2007 2:28pm
Well shake out party seems over now...

Gone to supermarket. Managed not to loose money, gotta manage not to loose the wife.
  • #8,927
  • Mar 22, 2007 2:42pm Mar 22, 2007 2:42pm
Yep, all seems pretty quiet... for now...

Wonder if the Asian session in a few hours will give us any surprises and further movement?
  • #8,928
  • Mar 22, 2007 3:00pm Mar 22, 2007 3:00pm
Quoting cesarnc
Better check here... So will help everybody...
Great information thanks!
  • #8,929
  • Mar 22, 2007 3:04pm Mar 22, 2007 3:04pm
Quoting katzenhai2
Anyone knows that?
Youtube: Every Breath Bernanke Takes


LOL, no. Its only because this price looks so 'nice' to me.
Great video... Who has time to make that?
Good ,I laughed out loud, twice! Benny Benny that song will be stuck in my head now
  • #8,930
  • Mar 22, 2007 3:35pm Mar 22, 2007 3:35pm
Quoting cesarnc
Well shake out party seems over now...

Gone to supermarket. Managed not to loose money, gotta manage not to loose the wife.

Wow its look u r good decision maker............know wat do & not to do ,at right time............keep it up lol
"Trade for sake of trading & not for winning or Lossing"
  • #8,931
  • Mar 22, 2007 3:46pm Mar 22, 2007 3:46pm
Quoting HonaForex
Wow its look u r good decision maker............know wat do & not to do ,at right time............keep it up lol
I just happen to like my pocket and my throat...



Hey, what's everybody doing throughout the Asian session? I'm really considering pulling thislong 9617 I have, that will B/E a lousy entry at 9707 and await Europe.

Guess it would be time to let price run a little without position in place to get indicators refreshed, supports and resistances clearer, find new trendlines and stuff...

Or is there an obvious move right around the corner that I'm missing?

Too busy a day after an already too busy a week. I'm afraid I'm loosing capacity to read what's next in the market for now...

Oh, beer helps too...

Thoughts?
  • #8,932
  • Mar 22, 2007 4:13pm Mar 22, 2007 4:13pm
Besides Forex, aviation is something that holds my passion, too.. .

So here it goes something to merge both of them... A good image of my trading week in the attempt of a safe landing on the profit side...

Hope you enjoy...

Inserted Video


I got several "go around" too... like today
  • #8,933
  • Mar 22, 2007 4:33pm Mar 22, 2007 4:33pm
Quote
Hey, what's everybody doing throughout the Asian session?
Sleeping, because I live in Europe.
Can only imagine how hard it must be for you US (and brazil) people to trade on london time.

Quote
Besides Forex, aviation is something that holds my passion, too...
Thats why I love forex: Its like soaring, because I'm a pilot. Up and down. Its the same like flying a plane and try to never crash.
  • #8,934
  • Mar 22, 2007 4:41pm Mar 22, 2007 4:41pm
during asian session, i'm usually cooking dinner, taking care of kids, and watching tv, maybe sleeping. i will take an occassional glance at the markets to see what's happening but usually i don't trade around that time unless there's a significant move..
  • #8,935
  • Mar 22, 2007 4:42pm Mar 22, 2007 4:42pm
An idea just came about here... What a nice beer can't make to us:

UJ is holding just above 118. Note that on the huge dollar selloff, UJ stalled, backed by the surge on the carries.

So, a potencially good Asian stock market will help carry recovery or at least is likely to stall the UJ on a possible dollar selloff... So Long USDJPY is likely to hold small drawdown while our majors/USD long soar.

In the other hand, a possible dollar buyout through the Asian session is likely to boost USDYen with its crosses, too, buffering the losses in the majors/USD.

That put, UJ may be an insurance in case our Majors/USD long are under seige.

What do think about it?
  • #8,936
  • Mar 22, 2007 4:59pm Mar 22, 2007 4:59pm
i've been burned too many times with usd/yen trades when I thought i knew what it was going do.

but it does sound like a logical plan.

also I've been thinking about this Iran oil thing, they want only Euro and Yen, now naturally that would hint towards a stronger Euro and stronger Yen against the dollar, however if your main currency is the dollar, then you would want a weaker euro and weaker yen. So there's a possibility that external forces are at play here and we might see both euro and yen weaken against the dollar, critical level for euro tonight will be 13280-60, if we breach that level, I'm considering the uptrend to be over and will go short. I think we might see a test of 13300-10 again, and if that holds 13450 is a definite or a break above 13350 will also put us back in the upwards momentum. Like I mentioned before the Euro is a funny beast, 50 pips in a hour, 20 in day, to 200 overnight, anything can happen but imo it's still a safer currency to manage than the Yen.

i'll be doing my research later on, if i find anything interesting to suggest a clear direction, i'll post.
  • #8,937
  • Mar 22, 2007 5:16pm Mar 22, 2007 5:16pm
Quoting leelee75k
i've been burned too many times with usd/yen trades when I thought i knew what it was going do.

but it does sound like a logical plan.

also I've been thinking about this Iran oil thing, they want only Euro and Yen, now naturally that would hint towards a stronger Euro and stronger Yen against the dollar, however if your main currency is the dollar, then you would want a weaker euro and weaker yen. So there's a possibility that external forces are at play here and we might see both euro and yen weaken against the dollar, critical level for euro tonight will be 13280-60, if we breach that level, I'm considering the uptrend to be over and will go short. I think we might see a test of 13300-10 again, and if that holds 13450 is a definite or a break above 13350 will also put us back in the upwards momentum. Like I mentioned before the Euro is a funny beast, 50 pips in a hour, 20 in day, to 200 overnight, anything can happen but imo it's still a safer currency to manage than the Yen.

i'll be doing my research later on, if i find anything interesting to suggest a clear direction, i'll post.
I am aware of this Iran rumor or plan or whatever. But it hasn't hit the market yet. And dollar got itself a good recover. I'd say Iran is much more playing mindgames (uranium enrichement, changing currencies) to find themselves a table to negotiate or make demands right in a US election year... "are you gonna nuke me out? Okay. I'll burn the crap out of your currency in exchange".

North Korea did the right thing, at least for them. When the world heard about their nukes, one was already gone off. Now they have a table to negotiate... But that's another story...

Investors back to carries is now in place, backed my sucessive good stocks performances. And that's immediate term. What it is happending lately is interesting:

dollar going down by FED screwed speech -> good stocks performance -> risk apetite for carries back.

dollar going up on new assessment on what FED said -> good stocks performance -> risk apetite for carries back.

As long as nothing is putting the stocks in jeopardy, investors will go on jumpping in back to carry trade. There are talks of GJ at 233 shortly. And the February selloff hit the market when GJ was trading at 238. There's a lot of room for recovery.

During that recovery, UJ is likely to stall everytime dollar is being sold and soar everytime dollar is up... That's what happened yesterday and THAT wasn't a correction. It was a major dollar dumpping across the board...

Just reduced my GU long and went UJ long at 118.06 big SL. MM under control. The risk now is a carry trade selloff...

Not an advice though...
  • #8,938
  • Mar 22, 2007 5:22pm Mar 22, 2007 5:22pm
Hi everybody,first I want to excuse me for my english.
The situation is very difficult by the cable.When I look at the monthly chart I see,that there are enough signals to sell it,but it is possible to reach 1.99 level before the start of the big sell of,which will help us to go under the 1.90 level.
GL GT
  • #8,939
  • Mar 22, 2007 5:41pm Mar 22, 2007 5:41pm
your english is fine.

now I just have to ask, what signals are suggesting 199?
my top level before a reversal is/was 19740-50 range.
I see further shorts if it breaks 19570.
  • #8,940
  • Mar 22, 2007 5:52pm Mar 22, 2007 5:52pm
Quoting leelee75k
your english is fine.

now I just have to ask, what signals are suggesting 199?
my top level before a reversal is/was 19740-50 range.
I see further shorts if it breaks 19570.
double top.The resistance at 1.99 is very strong and might help us to change the direction.
FED is also going to help us,when they find,that strong dolar will help them to take control over inflation and will also help to come out from the crisis in the real estate sector.That combined with the protests from big coutries like Germany,Italy,France will help the dollar to change the middle-term direction.
STRONG dollar is the best decision for all big countries now.
GL GT
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