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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #8,761
  • Mar 22, 2007 2:49am Mar 22, 2007 2:49am
Quoting southernmind
I was speaking of going long at those levels.
oohh, sorry. then I hope you've done it by Frankfurt open...

GB Retail Sales coming up at 9:30 GMT. Can be the push through 9700
  • #8,762
  • Mar 22, 2007 3:01am Mar 22, 2007 3:01am
[GBP/USD] grinding higher on a US prime buying from the 1.9670 level to reach an intraday high of 1.9696. The Fed's announcement allowed the pair to continue its climbed higher despite the surprising BOE minutes. However, it is still reluctant to clear the 1.9700 handle ahead of the UK Feb retail sales data. The data could nudge the pair above the 1.9700 handle towards initial resistance at 1.9735 if the number comes in at or higher than the expected 0.6% m/m after a dismal 1.8% plunge previous. Going by the Feb BRC retail sales hitting an annual rate of 5.6%, the best reading since July 2006, the headline release looks particularly promising which will bode well for the pair.

  • #8,763
  • Mar 22, 2007 3:47am Mar 22, 2007 3:47am
i think this one is pretty obvious. though i dont want to be too confident. Are you sure the news could push the price to break 700? at 70 it would require some kind of force to push it up. At least, on a positive note we have a small range today...so expect some force to come by soon.
  • #8,764
  • Mar 22, 2007 3:55am Mar 22, 2007 3:55am
Out of cable atm after getting stopped out yesterday. Currently reading Mark Douglas' 'Trading in the Zone' thanks to a friend and other people's recommendation here. I'll finish reading it first and stay out of market (well except ongoing EUR/USD last long with s/l already tightened) for the rest of this week.
Good luck to everyone here. And very good job there, cesarnc.
Tra-X
  • #8,765
  • Mar 22, 2007 3:56am Mar 22, 2007 3:56am
Quoting jest1081
i think this one is pretty obvious. though i dont want to be too confident. Are you sure the news could push the price to break 700? at 70 it would require some kind of force to push it up. At least, on a positive note we have a small range today...so expect some force to come by soon.
This force is the news. Coming at least as forecast it is indeed powerful enough. CPI started this move up. Now Retal Sales going up are another indicator of inflation around the corner.

GBP is responding better to GB news than US'. And no retracement since y'day is an indicator that market is not TP-ing in the waiting for the top...

I'm pulling all longs today in case we spike above 9700. 4hr and daily are blown up already...
  • #8,766
  • Mar 22, 2007 4:21am Mar 22, 2007 4:21am
Although said supported by the better mood towards yield plays, the [POUND] was clearly undermined by the revelations in the BOE's March minutes. Today's calendar is again important for the UK unit with retail sales due at 9.30GMT and seen a reasonably healthy 0.55 mom in Feb, or 3.7% yoy whilst industrial trend for Mar will follow at 11.00GMT. The CBI is set to moderate to 2 from 4, expectations 26 from 28. For Gbp a 0.6770-0.6800 range has held tight since the BOE mins, a break of either side to spark action from the intraday market which looks to be long Gbp, and seeking inspiration in hoped for strong data. In this respect it would take very little upside in the retail sales data to see economist sealing an April hike. 2.0000 calls for Cable could follow with players already bulled up by the Fed outturn.

  • #8,767
  • Mar 22, 2007 4:33am Mar 22, 2007 4:33am
TPed 1/3 for 60 GU

110 for GJ...

Rest is for the run...
  • #8,768
  • Mar 22, 2007 4:39am Mar 22, 2007 4:39am
Quoting cesarnc
TPed 1/3 for 60 GU

110 for GJ...

Rest is for the run...


great job cesarnc
  • #8,769
  • Mar 22, 2007 4:51am Mar 22, 2007 4:51am
Upcoming EU news may provide a dip to buyers at 3340 - 50, according to a report I received...

Not trustworthy, but, let's check it... There are also talks about EUR 3450 as a major target
  • #8,770
  • Mar 22, 2007 5:05am Mar 22, 2007 5:05am
I really don't like this move right now.... I pulled lots for 110 pips and let a tiny one to find the top...

Too good a week already to further risk. larger terms charts indicators are set to explode already.
  • #8,771
  • Mar 22, 2007 5:07am Mar 22, 2007 5:07am
This move also make me nervous....What is the market waiting for? Another USD data? or GBP really on top? I will hold long if GBP keep above 1.9700 today....But, if it fall down?......Maybe I need to cover my GJ long first....
- Ray Tracy - Novice forex trader from GMT+8
  • #8,772
  • Mar 22, 2007 5:08am Mar 22, 2007 5:08am
More news to mar the outlook for the Dollar after [IRAN] announced that the decline in the Usd's value has prompted it to request payment for oil in Yen, and Euro. According to Iran around 60% of buyers plan to pay in non Usd currency whilst the nation also stresses that this move is based on economic issues, not political ones. Such a move has been expected for some time, but give the current unfavourable atmosphere for the greenback, may well have more of an impact on sentiment. Eur/Usd off the base around 1.3350 with fx traders noting very good demand to buy the 1.350-60 dip.

s#$@ like this can bring further buyers, overbought or not...
  • #8,773
  • Mar 22, 2007 5:13am Mar 22, 2007 5:13am
Quoting cesarnc
I really don't like this move right now.... I pulled lots for 110 pips and let a tiny one to find the top...

Too good a week already to further risk. larger terms charts indicators are set to explode already.
Good, you still have respect to the 'Henrycarol' resistance.
Tra-X
  • #8,774
  • Mar 22, 2007 5:14am Mar 22, 2007 5:14am
Quoting raytracy
This move also make me nervous....What is the market waiting for? Another USD data? or GBP really on top? I will hold long if GBP keep above 1.9700 today....But, if it fall down?......
There's no relevant fundamentals for the week. Retail Sales came out way better than expected but there's no buyers above 9700 for continuation, yet.

We are definetely close to the top, given the technicals. With no further buyers to jump in and no further fundamentals to provide the prop, bears seem to be healed from the assault and ready for the vendetta.
  • #8,775
  • Mar 22, 2007 5:19am Mar 22, 2007 5:19am
good early morning to all.

just closed all my euro shorts from yesterday, got in the 3390's and 80's, missed last night spike over 134.00.

picked up a euro long at 3363, 30 pip stop loss, target 13430

missed the cable spike over 197, holding tight right now, looking to either buy on dip or sell over 9720
  • #8,776
  • Mar 22, 2007 5:20am Mar 22, 2007 5:20am
Quoting Traex
Out of cable atm after getting stopped out yesterday. Currently reading Mark Douglas' 'Trading in the Zone' thanks to a friend and other people's recommendation here. I'll finish reading it first and stay out of market (well except ongoing EUR/USD last long with s/l already tightened) for the rest of this week.
Good luck to everyone here. And very good job there, cesarnc.
A great book, I guess that we´ll have to wait until you´ve completed your "20 trades" - P196 and on - for your return!

I´m also burning the midnight oil after a couple of loosers - lol, I better start taking more note of what Cesarnc´s doing!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #8,777
  • Mar 22, 2007 5:20am Mar 22, 2007 5:20am
Quoting Traex
Good, you still have respect to the 'Henrycarol' resistance.
He's not showing up for quite sometime. That suggests me that he is DYING to short the crap out of Cable down the hole....
  • #8,778
  • Mar 22, 2007 5:26am Mar 22, 2007 5:26am
If GU ends below 9660 before NY open, then GU is on top (Retail sales was very good, but it can't broke the 9730 strong resistence) and we can see a retracement to 9550 maybe.

If GU ends above 9680 before NY O, then I expect consolidation between (9650,9700) range to before Bernanke speaks.

If GU ends above 9730.... then 9900 is not a bad idea.

That's my opinion
  • #8,779
  • Mar 22, 2007 5:26am Mar 22, 2007 5:26am
Quoting Islander
I´m also burning the midnight oil after a couple of loosers - lol, I better start taking more note of what Cesarnc´s doing!
I'm just going along with what fundamentals are telling us.

"Dollar down" is the name of the game in the FED's aftermarth. But Cable is looking too exhausted already. Ahead of the end of the week (THIS FAT WEEK), profit takings are more likely than new buyers....

So further dollar down will require refuel at least from 9555 now... I'm leaving a tiny lot long from 9705 because today's range was nearly 60 pips only, not tipical for the week we're having. But jumpping in new longs now is risky, risky business.
  • #8,780
  • Mar 22, 2007 5:27am Mar 22, 2007 5:27am
Quoting pablorpl
If GU ends below 9660 before NY open, then GU is on top (Retail sales was very good, but it can't broke the 9730 strong resistence) and we can see a retracement to 9550 maybe.

If GU ends above 9680 before NY O, then I expect consolidation between (9650,9700) range to before Bernanke speaks.

If GU ends above 9730.... then 9900 is not a bad idea.

That's my opinion
I second at the pip
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