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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #8,661
  • Mar 21, 2007 6:23am Mar 21, 2007 6:23am
For those who missed USDCAD fiesta y'day, we may have another round today...

[FOCUS COMMENT: NERVOUS PLAYERS AWAIT CDN RETAIL SALES] After yesterday's local CPI shocker, Usd/Cad has been hit sharply lower as traders draw back any expectations for a BoC rate cut this year, with the core CPI now well above the CB's 2.0% target. Nervous traders now await the key retail sales data at 12.30gmt for clues on further direction

But I'll be out of the office by the time...
  • #8,662
  • Mar 21, 2007 6:25am Mar 21, 2007 6:25am
Thinking the same thing.

Not sure what the FOMC is going to come up with and it maybe a big market mover, however I am thinking short at the moment.
  • #8,663
  • Mar 21, 2007 6:34am Mar 21, 2007 6:34am
but if it happens to cut rate?

Quoting cesarnc
In theory, yes. This means 8 BOR/MPC members voted for no interest rate hike and 1 voted, today, for rate cut.

However, players seems to be much more interested in FOMC meeting this afternoon (GMT) for US interest rate statement to start making decisions. There's the possibility of a rate cut today, although I don't really believe.

Furthermore, I really don't know if no-cut (dollar down) is already priced in...
  • #8,664
  • Mar 21, 2007 6:34am Mar 21, 2007 6:34am
Quoting pablorpl

So... viewing only prices... i see long postions very risky now

what do you think?
My major concern about going long was 4hr chart overbought + daily overbought enough for a move down.

4hr is coming out of overbought area, at least opening room for more up move. Y'day Cable broke above an important downward channel, what have made banks issue buy recommendation targeting 9900-2.0, as I posted. Market sentiment seems to be USD bearish now that Carries settled down (GJ back above 230).

Only with a breach + two days trading below 4h 250EMA again I'll change my view to bearish again...

Have in mind that this doesn't mean we're going up from here non stop to 9900.
  • #8,665
  • Mar 21, 2007 6:36am Mar 21, 2007 6:36am
Quoting nextG
but if it happens to cut rate?
dollar down the hole for the rest of the week across the board.

Dollar index alreay at strong support just waiting for the final kick.
  • #8,666
  • Mar 21, 2007 6:36am Mar 21, 2007 6:36am
lets get it at a nice price.. i'll short at 9600 or 9590..

Quoting Rosco_P
Thinking the same thing.

Not sure what the FOMC is going to come up with and it maybe a big market mover, however I am thinking short at the moment.
  • #8,667
  • Mar 21, 2007 6:38am Mar 21, 2007 6:38am
patience is a virtue.. i'll just wait for the fomc..

Quoting cesarnc
dollar down the hole for the rest of the week across the board.

Dollar index alreay at strong support just waiting for the final kick.
  • #8,668
  • Mar 21, 2007 6:51am Mar 21, 2007 6:51am
is not clear-....

since march 5.. GU go up 470 pips to 9650 very strong resistence.

If GU go <9500 then we can see 9180 again like march 5
  • #8,669
  • Mar 21, 2007 7:32am Mar 21, 2007 7:32am
Quoting cesarnc
For those who missed USDCAD fiesta y'day, we may have another round today...

[FOCUS COMMENT: NERVOUS PLAYERS AWAIT CDN RETAIL SALES] After yesterday's local CPI shocker, Usd/Cad has been hit sharply lower as traders draw back any expectations for a BoC rate cut this year, with the core CPI now well above the CB's 2.0% target. Nervous traders now await the key retail sales data at 12.30gmt for clues on further direction

But I'll be out of the office by the time...
gotta a quicky here
  • #8,670
  • Mar 21, 2007 7:39am Mar 21, 2007 7:39am
Quoting pablorpl
is not clear-....

since march 5.. GU go up 470 pips to 9650 very strong resistence.

If GU go <9500 then we can see 9180 again like march 5
Not necessarily.

Question is what is going to push the market on the move. We saw 91s propped by carry unwinding, which has settle down / back up already.

As I mentioned previously, we would need some good fundamentals to push price through the 4h 250EMA (or 200 EMA as some use) and that was the CPI. After FOMC there's no important news for the week and we are likely to face some choppy days until Friday or Monday.

In the lack of fundamentals to pull Cable down, I'm a dip buyer, ultimate buying figure = 4hr 250 EMA
  • #8,671
  • Mar 21, 2007 8:42am Mar 21, 2007 8:42am
morning all

what's the plan for today? Cuz I'm lost. Out of trades and don't know what to do next Took the ride last night up with the gbp without getting to add anymore shorts, I was sleeping but had my stops set to 19740, woke up not too long ago to see my short limits were filled at 9575 and 9570, just wished I was awake to short from 9650 area..but oh well. at least I didn't bank any losses.

Euro dissappointing, I had orders to buy at 13285 and at 13335, neither were filled, hoping it breaks out of this annoying range today. Obviously strong support in 13260-70 area so imo it needs to retest 13333 and higher before a bigger downward move.
  • #8,672
  • Mar 21, 2007 9:08am Mar 21, 2007 9:08am
I think GBP/USD is still going up, and just testing buyers at this resistance. My upper speed line was breached yesterday, and today this speed line is acting as strong support. I'm long myself, and down about 40 pips, but am relatively convinced it's still going up due to the price not being able to go back below my speed line. Here's a picture of my 3 hour chart:
Attached Image
  • #8,673
  • Mar 21, 2007 9:12am Mar 21, 2007 9:12am
Quoting kharvell
I think GBP/USD is still going up, and just testing buyers at this resistance. My upper speed line was breached yesterday, and today this speed line is acting as strong support. I'm long myself, and down about 40 pips, but am relatively convinced it's still going up due to the price not being able to go back below my speed line. Here's a picture of my 3 hour chart:
Whatever a "speed line" means I'm with you on this one.. Several drawdowns, but this damn pair is going up eventually. I'm adding to the inventory at 9555 / 9510 / 9475 or break above 9620...

4hr chart, once overbought, now showing space to run up. I like it loaded high.
  • #8,674
  • Mar 21, 2007 9:15am Mar 21, 2007 9:15am
Cable look's to me like it's just catching it's breath; ping-ponging up anytime it gets below 9580.
  • #8,675
  • Mar 21, 2007 9:41am Mar 21, 2007 9:41am
I am going long at .9913!
  • #8,676
  • Mar 21, 2007 9:43am Mar 21, 2007 9:43am
been watching the charts since posting and I have to agree with you guys, being that cable hasn't broken and lingered at or below 9550 shows me that it wants to go back up. I want to add one long position with a 9500 stop, but am hesitant and keep convincing myself to wait till after the news. I've had a 150 pip stop triggered during news and I don't want ever want to see my "ultimate" stops get triggered, because that usually means the market is doing completely opposite of what I think it should be doing and playing catch up isn't fun.

btw I believe the ultimate top for this uptrend or whatever you want to call it is 9740-60 area before backing off again.... sorry no 199 dreams for me.
  • #8,677
  • Mar 21, 2007 9:44am Mar 21, 2007 9:44am
Quoting IN-N-OUT
I am going long at .9913!
YEAH!!!! There's a guy there waiting for B/E after 700 pips drawdown... What a risk/reward ratio !!!

  • #8,678
  • Mar 21, 2007 9:48am Mar 21, 2007 9:48am
Quoting leelee75k

btw I believe the ultimate top for this uptrend or whatever you want to call it is 9740-60 area before backing off again.... sorry no 199 dreams for me.
99s is a dream for the short term, but no reason why not in the medium. we've travelled 400 pips from 91s already. Another 300 to go only.

Of course, fundamentals must help us out here... Just want to see Carries back up, possibly from April on. That can give us a push.... Rate hike for April seems out of the cards already...

Don't know... Maybe that "Iran to be attacked in April" rumor comes back in town
  • #8,679
  • Mar 21, 2007 9:50am Mar 21, 2007 9:50am
why wont the GBP MOVE!!!!!
http://i10.tinypic.com/44bm2bl.jpg
  • #8,680
  • Mar 21, 2007 9:53am Mar 21, 2007 9:53am
agree, 99 isn't out of the question, but I tend to think short term because its how I trade, so that why 99 is not a realistic goal for me as of yet, I would have to see cable break 9750,9800, and 9850 before I set my eyes on that figure.
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