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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #115,641
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:00am Jan 28, 2009 7:00am
Quoting eohater
I'm still on target for this to be reached. Expecting a pullback to around 425x area for new soldiers to be added. We break 444x, next stop will be 489x
One more before I have to go shovel snow. If we get a daily close around 431x with a wick all the way up to 444x, I wouldn't be surprised to see her fall to 1.30x
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #115,642
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:16am Jan 28, 2009 7:16am
Quoting eohater
One more before I have to go shovel snow. If we get a daily close around 431x with a wick all the way up to 444x, I wouldn't be surprised to see her fall to 1.30x
Morning EO,

Cable is being well supported from the surge in UK banking stocks, which has seen Barclays and Lloyds rising 21% and 42% on the day, respectively.

Just as the uncertainty surrounding the UK banking sector was the main driver behind the incredible weekly 1,400 move to the downside, markedly improved sentiment toward the banks is allowing Cable to retrace significantly. Barclays this week have offered a greater degree of clarity on their capital position, with Lloyds receiving upgrades from two houses.

There are also rumours, probably unfounded, that middle eastern sovereign wealth funds are looking at investing heavily in the UK's banking and commercial real-estate sectors, as the decline of sterling versus the dollar now offers significant discounts on prospective long-term investments.

Wells Fargo's results, along with Obama's "bad bank" plan, have so far received a positive response from the market. Let's see how long this positive sentiments lasts as it will likely have a say on the near-term direction of Cable.
  • #115,643
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:22am Jan 28, 2009 7:22am
Quoting eohater
One more before I have to go shovel snow. If we get a daily close around 431x with a wick all the way up to 444x, I wouldn't be surprised to see her fall to 1.30x
this is what I have in mind as well, 61.8 fib around 4400 and an apparent channel which could take us down to 131/130
  • #115,644
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:24am Jan 28, 2009 7:24am
Dears

I think we get the target ( 1.4340 ),,and I hope it will do down first to 1.4025 And then to 1.3860

I think this up retracement must end so soon if not today may be tommorow at NY session with Max Target in the area of 1.4450 : 1.4500

What is your openioins ?
  • #115,645
  • Jan 28, 2009 7:59am Jan 28, 2009 7:59am
Quoting gammase1
Morning EO,

Cable is being well supported from the surge in UK banking stocks, which has seen Barclays and Lloyds rising 21% and 42% on the day, respectively.

Just as the uncertainty surrounding the UK banking sector was the main driver behind the incredible weekly 1,400 move to the downside, markedly improved sentiment toward the banks is allowing Cable to retrace significantly. Barclays this week have offered a greater degree of clarity on their capital position, with Lloyds receiving upgrades from two houses.

[b]There are also rumours,...
Nice fundamental perception as always gammase.

So people are buying on the Middle eastern promise (rumour) and will be selling the truth (news) when that comes out I suppose.
  • #115,646
  • Jan 28, 2009 8:05am Jan 28, 2009 8:05am
Quoting Vourvoul
Nice fundamental perception as always gammase.

So people are buying on the Middle eastern promise (rumour) and will be selling the truth (news) when that comes out I suppose.
Hi Vourvoul,

I think it's far more to do with the sentiment change, albeit a temporary one, towards the banking sector, brought about through a combination of the bad bank plan and greater disclosure from Barclays.

The talk of middle eastern money seems too vague a rumour to take seriously at this stage, unless we hear of a number of big deals being done. The only deal I have heard details of is British Land selling a stake in a major UK shopping centre to am Abu Dhabi fund for £550m.
  • #115,647
  • Jan 28, 2009 8:10am Jan 28, 2009 8:10am
Quoting eohater
One more before I have to go shovel snow. If we get a daily close around 431x with a wick all the way up to 444x, I wouldn't be surprised to see her fall to 1.30x
Morning, fellows.
Just finished shoveling snow, and I am back to business.
BTW, EO, Are you from East coast? I am from NJ.
  • #115,648
  • Jan 28, 2009 8:12am Jan 28, 2009 8:12am
hello 2 all members..
2 day i got 85 pips with 7 post...mixed with long n short...n now i still open 1 long post around 40 pips...my tp 4 this post is 4422...i hope it can be touch tonight (malaysia) r tomorrow morning...did all members same opinion with me
  • #115,649
  • Jan 28, 2009 8:19am Jan 28, 2009 8:19am
if 4415 is the target,that mean the trendline is broken..anyone suspecting for higher??
& now..the tl have been rejected..nice pin on m15..same situation like yesterday here..bouncing inside the triangle..but..up or down??
  • #115,650
  • Jan 28, 2009 8:21am Jan 28, 2009 8:21am
Quoting gammase1
Yes, anything can and, much of it, will happen in 2009, meaning there is a risk of UK defaulting, albeit a tiny one given the fact that gilts are issued in sterling. Therefore, this very fact, enables the UK the option of printing more cash, a get-out-of-jail option that was not available to Argentina or Russia, whose debt was denominated in dollars.

On more relevant points, the UK's public sector debt levels to GDP are far less than France and Germany, even after we account for the announced increases to borrowing in 2009.

The UK is still...
Hi Gammase1

The year 2008 has truly taught investors to think the unthinkable….maybe in the year 2009 we will SEE the unthinkable.
I think we are very quickly moving to a point where all of the large banks in America and Western Europe will become nationalised. When you consider that, even after the massive infusions of capital from the TARP payment, Bank of America last week traded at $5.05 (down from $60+ just two years ago) and that Citibank last week traded at $2.80 (down from $55+ in late 2007) and even the mighty JP Morgan traded at $17.70 (down from $50+ as recently as October last year…only 4 months ago). It is easily apparent that there are some “zombie” Banks. (Zombie industries are ones that are already dead…and have minimal chance of revival...but are kept on life support for political reasons). Lehmans was so dead that the Fed decided to not even give it first aid. The more information that comes out, the more apparent it is these “zombie” banks are insolvent now and only the taxpayers are propping up balance sheets.
On the other side of the Atlantic, The Royal Bank of Scotland was worth 75 Billion Pounds a year ago…it is now valued at only 4 Billion Pounds…And that is AFTER the Govt gave it an infusion of 32 Billion Pounds. That smoke you can see in the distance is the smoke of taxpayers money being burnt at an appalling rate.
Before anyone sends a response on the evils of nationalisation, consider the alternative of continually throwing taxpayers money at banks and taxpayers holding up the values for the stockholders and debtholders who are benefiting massively from the TARP payments (which I am starting to believe is the biggest rip-off of taxpayers of all times). If it wasn’t for these infusions the shares would be worthless and the principle and junior debtholders (who are still receiving 100% of their funds) would share the pain with the taxpayer.
.
  • #115,651
  • Jan 28, 2009 8:21am Jan 28, 2009 8:21am
Quoting gammase1
Hi Vourvoul,

I think it's far more to do with the sentiment change, albeit a temporary one, towards the banking sector, brought about through a combination of the bad bank plan and greater disclosure from Barclays.

The talk of middle eastern money seems too vague a rumour to take seriously at this stage, unless we hear of a number of big deals being done. The only deal I have heard details of is British Land selling a stake in a major UK shopping centre to am Abu Dhabi fund for £550m.
I am involved in the real estate markets across Europe (Romania, Moldova, Spain, Montenegro, Croatia, Cyprus), and the Middle Eastern fund rumour and their intention of investing millions in malls, hotels tourist resorts has been going on since September.

It's beginning to sound like the ultimate attempt to boost consumer/investor confidence. Thankfully, it helped me into liquidating a few assets.

The latest rumour I heard was the change in Manchester United's shirt would change from AIG to Saudi Telecom.
  • #115,652
  • Jan 28, 2009 8:22am Jan 28, 2009 8:22am
Dears

There is a huge resistance at 1.4370,.,,,,which just touched now

I think it's the end of the game now,,,we will go down to 1.4030 Then 1.3860

Enjoy
  • #115,653
  • Jan 28, 2009 8:23am Jan 28, 2009 8:23am
GBPUSD close to the daily pivot of 1.4320
Twitter: @forexpokerpro
  • #115,654
  • Jan 28, 2009 8:25am Jan 28, 2009 8:25am
Quoting Vourvoul
I am involved in the real estate markets across Europe (Romania, Moldova, Spain, Montenegro, Croatia, Cyprus), and the Middle Eastern fund rumour and their intention of investing millions in malls, hotels tourist resorts has been going on since September.

It's beginning to sound like the ultimate attempt to boost consumer/investor confidence. Thankfully, it helped me into liquidating a few assets.

The latest rumour I heard was the change in Manchester United's shirt would change from AIG to Saudi Telecom.
Good point.

Well, at least you were able to unwind some of your assets.
  • #115,655
  • Jan 28, 2009 8:26am Jan 28, 2009 8:26am
Dears

I think GU just strat the journey down to 1.4030 and then 1.3860

  • #115,656
  • Jan 28, 2009 8:27am Jan 28, 2009 8:27am
Quoting jacko
Hi Gammase1

The year 2008 has truly taught investors to think the unthinkable….maybe in the year 2009 we will SEE the unthinkable.
[font=Verdana]I think we are very quickly moving to a point where all of the large banks in America and Western Europe will become nationalised. When you consider that, even after the massive infusions of capital from the TARP payment, Bank of America last week traded at $5.05 (down from $60+ just two years ago) and that Citibank last week traded at $2.80 (down from $55+ in late 2007) and...
yur comments are interesting as always

my target missed, hope its not finished going north
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  • #115,657
  • Jan 28, 2009 8:30am Jan 28, 2009 8:30am
Quoting mohfaid
Dears

I think GU just strat the journey down to 1.4030 and then 1.3860

i feel we have to go retest it.
holding my long still.
Keep It Simple Stupid
  • #115,658
  • Jan 28, 2009 8:34am Jan 28, 2009 8:34am
Quoting Alastair
i feel we have to go retest it.
holding my long still.
Same here..it may just be getting a second wind. we are still over the uptrend line..

will see..
  • #115,659
  • Jan 28, 2009 8:44am Jan 28, 2009 8:44am
Quoting jacko
Hi Gammase1

The year 2008 has truly taught investors to think the unthinkable….maybe in the year 2009 we will SEE the unthinkable.
[font=Verdana]I think we are very quickly moving to a point where all of the large banks in America and Western Europe will become nationalised. When you consider that, even after the massive infusions of capital from the TARP payment, Bank of America last week traded at $5.05 (down from $60+ just two years ago) and that Citibank last week traded at $2.80 (down from $55+ in late 2007) and...
Excellent post, friend!

Yes, I think that the nationalisation of large parts of the banking sector is now looking inevitable, in the UK, eurozone and the US. This will be a creeping, gradual procedure, as anything more decisive would scare the hell out of the free-marketeers, the media and the wider public. This nationalisation process will see periodic injections of public funds going into the troubled institutions, in return for larger chunks of equity, thereby ensuring a de-facto wipe-out of those investors sitting at the bottom of the capital structure.

As much as nationalisation is a dirty word to some, I believe there is simply no other choice at this stage in the game. We need healthy banks providing credit to the economy, not zombie institutions. There has to be decisive action taken to prevent the global economy slipping into a prolonged slump

Even using conservative estimates of the likely losses the banks will suffer in 2009 and 2010, it becomes disturbingly apparent that they are indeed insolvent. Indeed, Nouriel Roubini has recently predicted credit losses peaking at $3.6 trillion for US institutions, half of which ($1.8 trillion) will be borne by banks and broker dealers. This would totally wipe out the US banking system, which currently has a capital base of $1.4 trillion.

From the very start of this crisis, Professor Roubini, once nicknamed "Dr Doom", has proved to be one of the most accurate economists with his forecasts.
  • #115,660
  • Jan 28, 2009 8:48am Jan 28, 2009 8:48am
that pin on 4hr is suggesting a turnaround
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