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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #115,421
  • Jan 27, 2009 11:36am Jan 27, 2009 11:36am
Quoting nAVIN2007
1.44....i hope is seen

theres fib confluence but i dont see a descent resistance..if it passes it 1.44 should be a almost certain possibility ( me thinks)
Decent resistance....
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Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #115,422
  • Jan 27, 2009 11:37am Jan 27, 2009 11:37am
Hey everyone my first trade today i just went short at 4180 we could be going all the way back down now i reckon which would be sweet for my short but not for my currency!
  • #115,423
  • Jan 27, 2009 11:38am Jan 27, 2009 11:38am
Quoting Alastair
should it not close above that level?
Watch this next m15 close.. it should tell us what to do...
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #115,424
  • Jan 27, 2009 11:47am Jan 27, 2009 11:47am
Hoping the next 15 min bar closes below resist level of 1.4174 so I can go short
  • #115,425
  • Jan 27, 2009 11:53am Jan 27, 2009 11:53am
Quoting jacko
The year 2008 has truly taught investors to think the unthinkable. In 2009, it is the risk of economic implosion somewhere in the world. and this will probably be most clearly seen by the implosion and subsequent nationalisation of the banking industry which could then lead to the BIG issue.
[font=Verdana]The BIG issue is the financial collapse of sovereign states …Iceland has already gone, Spain and Greece have just had their credit ratings trashed by Standard and Poor, Portugal and Ireland are in deep trouble, Russia looks...
Yes, anything can and, much of it, will happen in 2009, meaning there is a risk of UK defaulting, albeit a tiny one given the fact that gilts are issued in sterling. Therefore, this very fact, enables the UK the option of printing more cash, a get-out-of-jail option that was not available to Argentina or Russia, whose debt was denominated in dollars.

On more relevant points, the UK's public sector debt levels to GDP are far less than France and Germany, even after we account for the announced increases to borrowing in 2009.

The UK is still the 5th biggest manufacturer in the global economy, a sector of the economy which is a greater contributor to GDP than financial intermediation. This sector will benefit from a weaker sterling, due to imports becoming more expensive and companies receiving a welcome comparative advantage over foreign competitors. The UK is far from being a one-trick pony, unlike Iceland. Although the leverage on the balance sheets of consumers and banks remains a real concern, as it does in the US and many other developed economies.

So far the credit rating agencies have not come close to hinting on a downgrade to UK sovereign debt. In fact, on Thursday, Moody's went so far as praising the "vitality" of the UK's economy and went on to say our (the UK) debt rating is no weaker than that of other nations with triple-A grade. This is evidenced in the credit markets where the spreads between gilts and bunds are within long-term averages. Indeed, there exists a far greater divergence between comparable yields on bunds and debt issued by governments of Ireland, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece, all of whom are, like the UK, deficit countries.

Yes, a default from the UK could occur, but the risks remain minimal at this point in time. Therefore, a degree of perspective is needed when attempting to forecast the likelihood of such extreme events.
  • #115,426
  • Jan 27, 2009 12:03pm Jan 27, 2009 12:03pm
Quoting Infinity
Decent resistance....
yes it is with the diagonal trendline..but i discounted it..will likely regret it too.....
  • #115,427
  • Jan 27, 2009 12:05pm Jan 27, 2009 12:05pm
Very thoughtful and informative.
Coming from a man with financial background?

Quoting gammase1
Yes, anything can and will happen in 2009, meaning there is a risk of UK defaulting, albeit a tiny one given the fact that gilts are issued in sterling. Therefore, this very fact, enables the UK the option of printing more cash, a get-out-of-jail option that was not available to Argentina or Russia, whose debt was denominated in dollars.

On more relevant points, the UK's public sector debt levels to GDP are far less than France and Germany, even after we account for the announced increases to borrowing in 2009.

The UK is still the 5th biggest...
  • #115,428
  • Jan 27, 2009 12:06pm Jan 27, 2009 12:06pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
yes it is with the diagonal trendline..but i discounted it..will likely regret it too.....
This trendline is very important i feel. If it holds up now then I reckon it will pave the way back down to 1.35xx possibly lower. If its broken then I cant see price being held back until 1.44xx
  • #115,429
  • Jan 27, 2009 12:08pm Jan 27, 2009 12:08pm
Quoting shaan
Very thoughtful and informative.
Coming from a man with financial background?
Yes, friend. Used to work on the trading floor of major bank for 13 years.
  • #115,430
  • Jan 27, 2009 12:16pm Jan 27, 2009 12:16pm
Quoting PipLand
Hey everyone my first trade today i just went short at 4180 we could be going all the way back down now i reckon which would be sweet for my short but not for my currency!
Too much fundamental stories out there. Just make sure your box contains lots of Shorts & Long chlothens. I lost many pips because i entered a trade too early bcos of those fundamental stories. Somtimes i think when its hot wear Longshirt and when its cold wear Shorts. They have spoiled the ozone layer by global warming and the weather is too unpridictable!
Besides, keep your main currency under your pillow, u only need ur box for this journey. Only pips will take u to the land.
  • #115,431
  • Jan 27, 2009 12:22pm Jan 27, 2009 12:22pm
Quoting gammase1
Yes, friend. Used to work on the trading floor of major bank for 13 years.
Having read extensively and traded (a bit) for over four years. I find in the company of mentors and people who seem to know their stuff. Input from a lot of experts like yourself, eohater and infinity is so helpful and practical that newbies like me will find it difficult anywhere else.
I wondered why FF and especially this thread is so rich and a wonderful methodology of learning.

Cheers
  • #115,432
  • Jan 27, 2009 12:25pm Jan 27, 2009 12:25pm
Quoting shaan
Having read extensively and traded (a bit) for over four years. I find in the company of mentors and people who seem to know their stuff. Input from a lot of experts like yourself, eohater and infinity is so helpful and practical that newbies like me will find it difficult anywhere else.
I wondered why FF and especially this thread is so rich and a wonderful methodology of learning.

Cheers
Very kind words. But from a short-term technical trading perspective, I am not in the same league as EO and Infinity. Perhaps one day! I learn much from these guys and their selfless contributions to the forum.
  • #115,433
  • Jan 27, 2009 12:26pm Jan 27, 2009 12:26pm
My hats off to them as well.
Quoting gammase1
Very kind words. But from a short-term technical trading perspective, I am not in the same league as EO and Infinity. Perhaps one day! I learn much from these guys and their selfless contributions to the forum.
  • #115,434
  • Jan 27, 2009 12:29pm Jan 27, 2009 12:29pm
Quoting goodwings
Too much fundamental stories out there. Just make sure your box contains lots of Shorts & Long chlothens. I lost many pips because i entered a trade too early bcos of those fundamental stories. Somtimes i think when its hot wear Longshirt and when its cold wear Shorts. They have spoiled the ozone layer by global warming and the weather is too unpridictable!
Besides, keep your main currency under your pillow, u only need ur box for this journey. Only pips will take u to the land.
The banking situation is pretty bad over here but i havent resulted to putting it under the pillow just yet, although that time might come soon lol

My trades are entered mainly on technical analysis although I do like to know what is going on fundamentally.

The downtrend resistance line looked strong and thats pretty much why i shorted this.
  • #115,435
  • Jan 27, 2009 12:30pm Jan 27, 2009 12:30pm
many thanks from me to
  • #115,436
  • Jan 27, 2009 12:31pm Jan 27, 2009 12:31pm
  •  Trader#2EF1
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
`u shorted where?
  • #115,437
  • Jan 27, 2009 12:35pm Jan 27, 2009 12:35pm
Quoting macK
`u shorted where?
me? short at 4180
  • #115,438
  • Jan 27, 2009 12:36pm Jan 27, 2009 12:36pm
I haven't looked at this pair today, but there is blatently some Fibo action going on.
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Probability Professor
  • #115,439
  • Jan 27, 2009 12:45pm Jan 27, 2009 12:45pm
Quoting PipLand
This trendline is very important i feel. If it holds up now then I reckon it will pave the way back down to 1.35xx possibly lower. If its broken then I cant see price being held back until 1.44xx
100% agree
  • #115,440
  • Jan 27, 2009 12:45pm Jan 27, 2009 12:45pm
Hey guys !!!! How are you today ! Hope your ok ...because i am in deep shit like i said 3 days ago ....i have minus 7.500 euro on my trade ( don't say nothing bad ...cause i say to manny bad words until today ) . I am in this trouble because i bye GBP on 1.5152 on december (100K) and now i am down ....and i whant to make some money today ....i whant to bye or sale 500K for a short trade to recover some money but i don't know what to do ....bye or sale ? What is your opinnion ? Sorry for my english !!!
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