EURUSD

I got a confirmation on that Divergence. Just a little more confirmation that we will be heading to the bottom of that wedge. It is a counter trade though.

Jim

Well just like I said before 1.3278 I am short will see whats next moved my trade to BE+1

the fudumentals of the economy are strong.... yeah and the checks in my mouth...

[GLOBAL JOB LOSSES] increased by over 70,000 in just one day yesterday and in a broad range of industries, ranging from steelmakers Corus to ING, World of Leather and possible layoffs at shoe chain Barrats after the company went into administration. Given the scale of job losses in one day (over 4,000 in the UK) it's not difficult to envisage jobless total rising above 3m, since unempl (a lagging indicator) will peak after the econ starts to improve. Some companies are taking other measures to avoid job cuts. Virgin Atlantic has introduced a pay freeze at all levels y'day and many companies have introduced shorter working weeks and cuts in hours. News of job losses come as World Bank and IMF say govt are not cooperating enough to rebuild financial systems; they add that fiscal stimulus packages alone was not enough by itself. Elsewhere, Jim Rogers repeats last week's UK doom and gloom message in an FT letter today.

Morning all

[EU ASSET MARKET UPDATE] Not quite all going to plan in terms of pre-open expectations, or as one might anticipate directionally, so far. In fact, trade in bonds and stocks has been very choppy with no real sign of the usual inverse or lock-step movement between the two. Mar Bunds have fallen further into negative territory to a new 121.97 low (-39 ticks), and through yest's 121.12 intraday base, but did not really test the resolve of psychological support around 122.00, and perhaps more importantly the next downside target either (121.83 on our charts).

german news better then tought by reuters..more to follow

Screwed by the News

Germany's IFO at 83.0 (81.0 f/c) was enough to aid the next run higher in [EUR/USD] with a layer of stops 1.3280-00 purged immediately after the release. Trade now 1.3300-05 (1.3314 high) with additional buying coming through a squeeze of breakout sellers (93.40) in Eur/Gbp.

[GERMAN IFO FIGURES FOR JAN] came in better than expected today with the closely watched business climate number coming in at 83.0 against a f/c of 81.0 and a previous read of 82.8. Similar rise from expectations coming in at 79.4 against a f/c of 77.5 and a prior 76.8, while current assessment, 86.8, up against f/c of 85.0 but off against last month's read of 88.8. Talk from IFO's Abberger saying that several sectors inc construction benefitting from economic stimulus plan, while retail climate was seen to have improved in January. Much better than forecast figures, but far too early to even think of calling a turnaround.

Predictably, [BUNDS AND EURIBOR] are lower again, while the [EURO] has rebounded further against the Usd and Gbp on the firmer than expected German Ifo survey, which not only had an improved Jan headline reading, but also better current conditions that were deteriorating regardless of recent trends in business expectations. Mar Bunds back down to the low 122s after the 9.00GMT release, front end of the 3 month strip -3.5 to -8 ticks on the day, while Eur/Usd has been up to 1.3330 and Eur/Gbp 0.9364 vs lows of 1.3138 and 0.9326. Dax up 23 pts.

Looking for Resistance at 1.34 and 1.3570 for long term short positions.

Hi there.. I have a short at 1.3156 and my TP 1.3136 missed the last pip before it goes up...Is there any chance it comes back to 1.3100 area? Pls advise..I mean today..will there be any chance...Just confused?

news is slowly trying to push the price thru the R1 pivot point.

J

CABLE] following Eur/Usd higher after the firmer than forecast German IFO. A fresh five-day best of 1.4236 has just been recorded and we expect momentum types to go gunning for the next pivot zone of 1.4240/50, which house a key fibo (50% of 1.4982/1.3500 move). Stops in place on a break and a clear breach could well open up the 1.4360 area and the 2008 low. Recall the latter proved fair support on the way down and so should provide fair resistance this time too. Meanwhile, so much for the so-called key 0.9340 break in Eur/Gbp. The better IFO has helped the cross move off those 0.9326 lows, but overall still fairly well offered. Gbp/Usd last at 1.4220.

[CHANCELLOR MERKEL] govt approved a record Eur50 bn stimulus package on Tuesday and a supplementary budget that includes billion of new borrowing. The package includes investment in infrastructure, modest tax cuts and relief for the auto industry. The supplementary budget foresees new borrowing swelling to Eur36.8 bn in 2009, more than 3 times 2008 levels, but the real borrowing figure for this year will be closer to Eur50 bn, according to senior officials. Further, in the just released IFO survey, the organisation's spokesman is quoted as saying that several sectors including construction are benefitting from the economic stimulus package. IFO's Nerb says still need to see if fiscal boost is enough to spark a self sustaining recovery. Note that the IFO index appears to have improved on the back of 'less negative' readings for the retail and construction sector (retail -26.6 from -30.4).

[EUR/SEK] maintains it's overall bearish tone as trade gets underway in Europe, with a shift in sentiment as risk appetite returns to the market helping the Sekkie to strengthen up. Note yesterday's Swedish trade data had helped the move, after showing a surplus of Sek11.0 bn in Dec - a substantial increase from Nov's revised Sek5.4 bn. PPI data today however is not so pleasing, after falling way more than expected on the month by 0.7% vs the -0.1% f/c, taking the y/y rate to just 3.8% vs 4.4% y/y f/c. Nonetheless, yesterday's loss of some keys support levels has put the headline on track for losses down to a 10.3820 target (61.8% retrace), where we expect to find some decent support.

USD/YEN]. Instead Japanese sellers have been a constant factor since trade topped 90.00 (90.08 high) with Tokyo names still seen selling to the lows around 89.40+45. (now 89.50) There is no sign yet of investor bids akin to the chat that surrounded public pension fund demand during Tokyo hours. Cross/Yen also pegged back as a result, but bear in mind that the majority of traders are now looking to buy into such weakness. There is still a lot of chatter regarding stops above 90.20.

I covered my long and added some shorts just before the news (1,3254)

as it often happens I have been early

as it often happens I will get some pips out of it

looking for the 1,3160 - 70 area between today and tomorrow
hopefully

Big assed 3310 Failure. Just what the doctor ordered. Pair is trying to break the Daily DTL. Needs to check back at the door before moving on. Your right on it Dire and here is the main chart.

J

Look at the similarity between the E/J and the E/U.